Business Monitor International


Cameroon Autos Report

Published 28 October 2014

  • 51 pages
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$1,295.00
Cameroon Autos Report

Cameroon's new vehicle market is a fraction of the size of some of its larger regional neighbours, but its growth rate picked up significantly in 2013. Vehicle ownership is still low by regional standards and is expected to remain below 15 vehicles per 1,000 people during our five-year forecast period to 2018, which suggests there is not the same level of middle-class development as in some of the bigger Sub-Saharan African markets. Several economic episodes have reduced demand for new cars in favour of cheaper second-hand alternatives. These include the economic crisis of the 1980s, the franc's devaluation and the reduction in civil servant salaries in the 1990s.

According to Renault Group, auto sales for the first nine months of 2014 came in at 2,708 units, a decline of 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y). The poor growth print achieved year-to date has prompted us to downgrade our sales growth forecast for the year to a contraction of 7.0% versus 6.0% growth previously. Our Country Risk team forecasts real growth in private consumption to slow to 5.5% in real terms in 2014 versus 6.5% in 2013. At the same time, we believe some of the decline in demand for durable goods can be pinned down to the sharp declines in oil prices in Q414 ( see 'Oil At USD60/bbl Would Be Negative For Region', October 17).

While we expect auto sales to pick up in 2015 on the back of stronger private consumption we have tempered our growth forecast to 7.0% versus 10.4% previously. Over the 2015-2018 period, we forecast auto sales to grow at an annual average of 7.0%, which will see sales reach 4,924 units in 2018.

We estimate real GDP growth in Cameroon to average 5.6% from 2015-2018 and then increase to an average of 6.2% from 2019-2023. Long-term growth will be supported by several new mega-projects and increased oil production. Private consumption growth is the largest component of GDP at 70%. We forecast private consumption growth to average 6.0% per annum between 2015 and 2018.

We forecast...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Cameroon 2012-2018)
13
Sales
13
Infrastructure
14
Macroeconomic Forecasts
16
Economic Analysis
16
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Cameroon 2011-2018)
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Risk and Reward Ratings
25
Competitive Landscape
27
Trade
28
Company Profile
29
Company Monitor
29
Regional Overview
32
Autos Investment Round-Up: Export Potential Keeps Majors In South Africa
32
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Production Investments
32
Global Industry Overview
34
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
34
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
34
Trucks Give North America A Lift
35
India Brings Relief To BRICs
37
Demographic Forecast
39
Cameroon Demographic Forecast
39
Table: Cameroon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
40
Table: Cameroon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
41
Table: Cameroon's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
42
Table: Cameroon's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
42
Methodology
43
Industry Forecasts
43
Sector-Specific Methodology
44
Sources
44
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
45
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
46

The Cameroon Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Cameroon Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Cameroon.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Cameroon to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Cameroonian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Cameroonian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Cameroon.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc