Business Monitor International


Cameroon Autos Report

Published 04 February 2014

  • 51 pages
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$1,295.00
Cameroon Autos Report

Cameroon's new vehicle market is a fraction of the size of some its larger regional neighbours, but its growth rate has been similarly marginal. Car ownership is still low by regional standards and is only just expected to pass 20 cars per 1,000 people during our five-year forecast period to 2017, which suggests there is not the same level of middle class development as in some of the bigger sub-Saharan African markets. Several economic episodes have reduced demand for new cars in favour of cheaper second-hand alternatives. These include the economic crisis of the 1980s, the franc's devaluation and the reduction in civil servant salaries in the 1990s.

In 2012, vehicle sales in Cameroon increased by 6.7%, and this was the year BMI first became somewhat bullish on the country's growth prospects. These growth prospects and political stability have attracted Chinese investment into the country, with a view to unveiling Cameroon's first car making factory.

Auto sales in Cameroon for 2013 came in at 4,039 units, which was an increase of 30.5%. Full-year numbers where very much in line with our 2013 forecast of 4,022 units. Our bullish view on vehicle sales played out well in 2013, with growth in that year reaching double-digits for the first time in three years.

We remain positive on the market going into 2014. However, we expect the growth in vehicle sales to moderate and are forecasting sales growth of 10.0% in 2014, to 4,443 units.

We estimate real GDP growth in Cameroon to average 4.8% from 2014-2018 and then increase to an average of 4.9% from 2018-2023. This is on the back of investment in several new mega-projects and increased oil production. Private consumption growth is the largest component of GDP, at 70%, but it is in some ways the least dynamic. We see growth in private consumption averaging 4.3% per annum between 2014 and 2018.

In fact it is the investment component of GDP, which will be doing the heavy lifting, to help economic growth reach our bullish...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Cameroon - Automotive Sales, 2010-2017
13
Sales
13
Infrastructure
14
Macroeconomic Forecasts
16
Economic Outlook
16
Table: bmi_country} - GDP By Expenditure
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Africa - Risk Reward/Ratings
24
Table: Autos Risk/Reward Ratings - Sub-Saharan Africa
27
Competitive Landscape
28
Trade
29
Company Profile
30
Company Monitor
30
Table: Top 20 SSA Consumer Markets, 2013
31
Regional Overview
32
Autos - Africa: Fruits of Investment A Key Theme For 2014
32
Competition Heats Up In Kenya
32
Hubs Developing-
34
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Investment Projects
34
Divergent Fortunes Of Nigeria And South Africa
36
Global Industry Overview
37
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
37
Europe On Road To Recovery
37
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
39
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
41
Demographic Forecast
44
Cameroon Demographic Forecast
44
Table: Cameroon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
45
Table: Cameroon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
46
Table: Cameroon's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
47
Table: Cameroon's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
47
Methodology
48
Industry Forecasts
48
Sector-Specific Methodology
49
Sources
49
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
50
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
51

The Cameroon Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Cameroon Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Cameroon.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Cameroon to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Cameroonian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Cameroonian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Cameroon.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc