Business Monitor International


Cameroon Autos Report

Published 28 October 2014

  • 46 pages
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$1,295.00
Cameroon Autos Report

Cameroon's new vehicle market is a fraction of the size of some of its larger regional neighbours, but its growth rate picked up significantly in 2013. Vehicle ownership is still low by regional standards and is expected to remain below 15 vehicles per 1,000 people during our five-year forecast period to 2018, which suggests there is not the same level of middle-class development as in some of the bigger Sub-Saharan African markets. Several economic episodes have reduced demand for new cars in favour of cheaper second-hand alternatives. These include the economic crisis of the 1980s, the franc's devaluation and the reduction in civil servant salaries in the 1990s.

According to Renault Group, auto sales for the first nine months of 2014 came in at 2,708 units, a decline of 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y). The poor growth print achieved year-to date has prompted us to downgrade our sales growth forecast for the year to a contraction of 7.0% versus 6.0% growth previously. Our Country Risk team forecasts real growth in private consumption to slow to 5.5% in real terms in 2014 versus 6.5% in 2013. At the same time, we believe some of the decline in demand for durable goods can be pinned down to the sharp declines in oil prices in Q414 ( see 'Oil At USD60/bbl Would Be Negative For Region', October 17).

While we expect auto sales to pick up in 2015 on the back of stronger private consumption we have tempered our growth forecast to 7.0% versus 10.4% previously. Over the 2015-2018 period, we forecast auto sales to grow at an annual average of 7.0%, which will see sales reach 4,924 units in 2018.

We estimate real GDP growth in Cameroon to average 5.6% from 2015-2018 and then increase to an average of 6.2% from 2019-2023. Long-term growth will be supported by several new mega-projects and increased oil production. Private consumption growth is the largest component of GDP at 70%. We forecast private consumption growth to average 6.0% per annum between 2015 and 2018.

We forecast...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Cameroon 2012-2018)
13
Sales
13
Infrastructure
14
Macroeconomic Forecasts
16
Economic Analysis
16
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Cameroon 2011-2018)
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Africa Risk/Reward Index
25
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Risk and Reward Ratings
28
Competitive Landscape
29
Trade
30
Company Profile
31
Company Monitor
31
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Network Risks
33
Regional Overview
35
Industry Trend Analysis
35
Table: Sub-Saharan African Autos Production Investment
35
Global Industry Overview
37
Table: The Internet Of Cars
37
Demographic Forecast
39
Cameroon Demographic Forecast
39
Table: Cameroon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
40
Table: Cameroon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
41
Table: Cameroon's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
42
Table: Cameroon's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
42
Methodology
43
Industry Forecasts
43
Sector-Specific Methodology
44
Sources
44
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
45
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
46

The Cameroon Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Cameroon Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Cameroon.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Cameroon to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Cameroonian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Cameroonian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Cameroon.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverag

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc