Business Monitor International


Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report

Published 26 March 2014

  • 53 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report

The Myanmar economy expanded by 7.5% in FY2013/14 according to an ADB estimate, topping our above consensus forecast of 7.1% for the year. Strong performances were seen in the extractive industries as a result of soaring natural gas exports, as well as in services. Tourism was the best performing area in the services sector, as Myanmar received approximately 2.0mn foreign visitors in 2013 versus just 1.0mn in 2012, marking a 100% increase. While we believe that outperformance in the tourism sector is likely to continue over the medium term, we note that a renewed push in terms of economic and political reforms on behalf of the government will be necessary in order to bulk up the country's lagging infrastructure. While we remain sanguine on Myanmar's economic prospects, the government's recent census once again underscores the substantial political risks facing the country's development. Meanwhile, 2015's elections loom ever larger in the midst of a push to reform the constitution.

Cambodia's political scene has taken a turn for the worse over recent months. The crackdown by the government on protesting garment workers poses a risk to the sector's otherwise positive medium term outlook. Meanwhile, it also raises the stakes in the ongoing impasse between the ruling Cambodia People's Party (CPP) and the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), with the opposition CNRP becoming increasingly emboldened by their growing support base, and Hun Sen's CPP facing a tough task in maintaining the country's stable business environment. On the economic front, while the tourism industry continues to show promise, the construction sector is likely to suffer over the coming quarters as the nation's credit boom winds down. The current lending boom is resembling that which came to a rapid end amid the global financial crisis, and we believe that the country's hot real estate sector could be in for a rude awakening.

Despite the fact that Laos scores very highly in our...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
11
Chapter 1
13
Domestic Politics
13
Election Reform Agreement Would Be A Significant Breakthrough
13
Table: Political Overview
13
Long-Term Political Outlook
14
Addressing Corruption And Inequality Will Be Key To Stability
14
TABLE: Macroeconomic Forecasts
14
Chapter 1
17
Economic Activity
17
Bullish Rice Outlook Despite Regional Threats
17
TABLE: Macroeconomic Forecasts
17
Chapter 1
19
Infrastructure Outlook
19
Risks To Infrastructure Outlook Unresolved
19
Chapter 2
21
Domestic Politics
21
Political Repression The Key Risk
21
Long-Term Political Outlook
22
Growing Dissent Against LPRP Poses Risk Of Upheaval
22
Chapter 2
25
Economic Activity
25
Diversification Sorely Needed
25
Chapter 2
27
Infrastructure Outlook
27
High-Speed Rail: Risks Weighted To The Downside
27
Chapter 3
29
Domestic Politics
29
Census Struggles Highlight Ongoing Political Quagmires
29
Table: Political Overview
29
Long-Term Political Outlook
30
Regime Change From Within
30
Chapter 3
35
Economic Activity
35
Tourism Sector Flourishing As Reform Process Matures
35
Chapter 3
37
Infrastructure Outlook
37
Construction Infrastructure Potential Yet To Be Maximised
37
Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions
41
Global Outlook
41
Emerging Market Deceleration
41
Table: Global Assumptions
41
cambodia, Laos and myanmar Q3 2014
42
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
42
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
42
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
43

The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • ContextualiseCambodia, Laos and Myanmar's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes two major sections: Economic Outlook and Political Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Cambodian, Lao and Myanmar economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar over the next 5-years?

BMI's Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Cambodian, Lao and Myanmar Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express