Business Monitor International


Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report

Published 26 March 2014

  • 53 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
11
Regional Outlook
13
Political Outlook
13
'Pivotal' States Facing Defining Moments In 2014
13
TABLE: The World's Pivotal States
14
Chapter 1
17
Domestic Politics
17
Weighing Up The Positive And Negative Scenarios
17
Table : Cambodia Political Overview
17
Long-Term Political Outlook
18
Addressing Corruption And Inequality Will Be Key To Stability
18
Chapter 1
21
Economic Activity
21
Credit Crunch Fears Continue To Grow
21
table : ECONOM IC ACTIVITY
21
Chapter 1
23
Key Sector Outlook
23
Tourism Shrugging Off Political Unrest
23
Chapter 2
24
Domestic Politics
25
Fiscal Deterioration, Human Rights Violations A Rising Concern
25
Table : Political Overview
25
Long-Term Political Outlook
26
Growing Dissent Against LPRP Poses Risk Of Upheaval
26
Chapter 2
29
Economic Activity
29
Fiscal Deterioration Set To Continue
29
table : ECONOM IC ACTIVITY
29
Chapter 2
31
Mining Sector Outlook
31
Tough Digging With Fading Boom
31
Table: Copper & Gold Mine Production Forecasts
31
Chapter 3
33
Domestic Politics
33
More Peril Seen In Constitutional Reform Process
33
Table : Myan mar Political Overview
33
Long-Term Political Outlook
35
Regime Change From Within-
35
Chapter 3
39
Economic Activity
39
Banking Sector Reform Faces Considerable Challenges
39
table : ECONOM IC ACTIVITY
39
Chapter 3
41
Infrastructure Sector Outlook
41
Airport Viability Concerns Surface Again With Hanthawaddy
41
Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions
43
Global Outlook
43
Global Growth Optimism Turning To Disappointment
43
Table: Global Assumptions
43
Table : De vel ope d States , Real GDP GrowtH , %
44
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOM BERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GRO WTH FOR ECASTS, %
44
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
45

The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • ContextualiseCambodia, Laos and Myanmar's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes two major sections: Economic Outlook and Political Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Cambodian, Lao and Myanmar economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar over the next 5-years?

BMI's Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Cambodian, Lao and Myanmar Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express