Business Monitor International


Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report

Published 24 September 2014

  • 53 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report

While political reforms in Myanmar have not been particularly impressive over recent months, economic reforms have maintained a steady pace. Specifically, the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) announced in July that it would allow as many as ten foreign banks to begin operations in the country before the end of September, marking the first time in decades that foreign financial institutions would be allowed to operate in the former pariah state. This is a major step forward, not only in terms of the government's economic reform credentials, but also in terms of the economy's near-to-medium term growth prospects. Foreign banks will increase the local availability of capital considerably, and will for this reason be a boon to foreign firms looking to do business in the frontier market. Additionally, foreign banks will bring a new level of expertise to the market, acting as a positive market force for local banks in terms of competition. While we remain cautious on Myanmar's political prospects ahead of next year's election, we maintain our constructive stance towards the country's booming economy.

The recently-inked agreement between the ruling Cambodia People's Party (CPP) and opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) is a step forward in reducing the risk of continued street protests, and diminishes the risk of Prime Minster Hun Sen tightening his grip on power amid declining popularity. We have upgraded our short-term political risk ratings, and may upgrade our long-term ratings in the event of evidence of electoral reform. With the opposition returning to parliament, the focus can now shift to implementing political reforms that should strengthen the country's democracy and long-term stability. On the economic front, despite the recent decline in tourism arrivals, we continue to see positive trends, including greater infrastructure development, that should stand the industry in good stead over the long term.

Laos will face multiple economic headwinds over the...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
11
Chapter 1
13
Domestic Politics
13
Election Reform Agreement Would Be A Significant Breakthrough
13
Table: Political Overview
13
Long-Term Political Outlook
14
Addressing Corruption And Inequality Will Be Key To Stability
14
TABLE: Macroeconomic Forecasts
14
Chapter 1
17
Economic Activity
17
Bullish Rice Outlook Despite Regional Threats
17
TABLE: Macroeconomic Forecasts
17
Chapter 1
19
Infrastructure Outlook
19
Risks To Infrastructure Outlook Unresolved
19
Chapter 2
21
Domestic Politics
21
Political Repression The Key Risk
21
Long-Term Political Outlook
22
Growing Dissent Against LPRP Poses Risk Of Upheaval
22
Chapter 2
25
Economic Activity
25
Diversification Sorely Needed
25
Chapter 2
27
Infrastructure Outlook
27
High-Speed Rail: Risks Weighted To The Downside
27
Chapter 3
29
Domestic Politics
29
Census Struggles Highlight Ongoing Political Quagmires
29
Table: Political Overview
29
Long-Term Political Outlook
30
Regime Change From Within
30
Chapter 3
35
Economic Activity
35
Tourism Sector Flourishing As Reform Process Matures
35
Chapter 3
37
Infrastructure Outlook
37
Construction Infrastructure Potential Yet To Be Maximised
37
Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions
41
Global Outlook
41
Emerging Market Deceleration
41
Table: Global Assumptions
41
cambodia, Laos and myanmar Q3 2014
42
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
42
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
42
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
43

The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • ContextualiseCambodia, Laos and Myanmar's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes two major sections: Economic Outlook and Political Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Cambodian, Lao and Myanmar economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar over the next 5-years?

BMI's Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Cambodian, Lao and Myanmar Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express