Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Shipping Report

Published 03 September 2014

  • 109 pages
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$1,295.00
Bulgaria Shipping Report

Domestic Economy Lagging Behind Export Recovery

BMI is maintaining its outlook for the Bulgarian economy to grow by a relatively weak 1.4% this year, as export demand rises but the domestic economy remains mired in political uncertainty and low confidence levels. Despite some signs of recovery in retail sales we believe the domestic economy faces a prolonged period of anaemic growth. The problem lies in political uncertainty, deflationary monetary conditions, and still-high unemployment. The construction sector remains in recession, and industrial output is barely growing. While in theory the government could boost its spending to revive the economy (public debt and the fiscal deficit are both comparatively small), it lacks a majority in the National Assembly. So we expect net exports to be the main stimulus to the economy, with consumption and investment as lagging factors. In line with a scenario of gradual improvement, we see GDP growth accelerating to 2.7% in 2015.

We are maintaining our Port of Varna forecasts. The general slow recovery scenario remains unchanged. Bulk volume tonnage at the port will grow in the low double digits in percentage terms (up from just over 5% previously). Because of the stumbling recovery of household consumption, our box forecast remains in the low single digits.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast to grow 11.0% to 18.573mn tonnes; over the medium term (to 2018) we project an average annual increase of 8.4%.

  • 2014 port of Varna container throughput forecast to grow 2.7% to 135,009TEUs; over the medium term we project a 3.5% average annual increase.

  • 2014 total trade growth forecast at 5.5%, down from an estimated 7.2% in 2013.

Key Industry Trends

Intermodal Terminal Planned For Varna: The Bulgarian ministry of transport said in May that work to build a BGN90mn (USD62.22mn) intermodal terminal at the Black Sea port of Varna would begin once construction permits had been issued. The...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Shipping
10
Business Environment
11
Economic
12
Political
13
Industry Forecast
14
Port of Varna Throughput Outlook
14
Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
18
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
18
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
19
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
20
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
20
Market Overview
21
Bulgaria Container Shipping Market Overview
21
Industry Trends And Developments
26
Company Profile
29
Navibulgar
29
Global Industry Overview - Container Shipping
31
Demand: Global Box Outlook Brightening
31
Supply: Overcapacity To Remain As More Megas Saturate The Market
42
Table: Container Line Mega-Vessel Newbuild Plans
44
Rates: A Strong Start, But Rate Management Must Continue
47
Table: 2012 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
51
Table: 2012 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
51
Global Industry Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
52
Demand: Stimulus Blip Playing Out, Bit For How Long-
52
Supply: Dry Bulk Fleet growth Slipping, But Overcapacity Still A Problem
57
Table: China Iron Ore Trade Partners Overview
63
Table: China Coal Trade Partners Overview
63
Global Industry Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
64
Improving Fundamentals In Dirty Tanker Market
64
Tonne-Mile Growth To Support Product Tanker Sector
67
LNG Boom To Stall In 2013
70
Global Company Strategy
73
Maersk Line
73
Mediterranean Shipping Company
82
CMA CGM
87
Evergreen Line
95
COSCO Container Lines Company
101
Hapag-Lloyd
108
Hanjin Shipping
114
APL
119
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
126
Mitsui OSK Lines
133
Macroeconomic Forecasts
138
Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity
143
Demographic Forecast
144
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
145
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
146
Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
147
Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
147

The Bulgaria Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Bulgaria.

BMI's Bulgaria Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Bulgaria.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc