Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Shipping Report

Published 06 June 2014

  • 109 pages
 
$1,295.00
Bulgaria Shipping Report

2014 Growth Forecast Reduced

Based on recent economic activity data BMI is rebalancing its GDP estimates and forecasts for 2013/14, against the background of a somewhat faltering economic recovery. Compared to where we were in our last quarterly report, we have raised our estimate for 2013 GDP growth (up to 0.9% from 0.5% previously) but lowered our forecast for this year (now 1.4% vs. 1.6% previously). In short, we don't really see the recovery gathering respectable traction until 2015, when we are forecasting 2.7% expansion.

The short explanation for our view is that while net exports and public spending came through more strongly than we had expected in 2013, we expect household consumption and investment to remain lacklustre in 2014 under the influence of continuing political uncertainty. It now seems stronger exports were Bulgaria's saving grace last year, and if not for them the economy would have contracted again, dragged down by a 2.3% fall in household consumption. Driving the latter is political and business uncertainty and high unemployment - at 13% in Q413, the highest it has been in the past decade.

Based on newly available data we have modified our forecasts for the Port of Varna, although the general slow recovery scenario remains unchanged. We have raised our forecast for bulk volume tonnage growth at the port to the low double digits in percentage terms (up from just over 5% previously). But partly because of the stumbling recovery of household consumption, we have lowered our box forecast at the port to the low single digits.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 Port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast to grow 11.0% to 18.573mn tonnes; over the medium term (to 2018) we project an average annual increase of 8.4%.

  • 2014 Port of Varna container throughput forecast to grow 2.7% to 135,009 TEUs; over the medium term we project a 3.5% average annual increase.

  • 2014 total trade growth forecast at 5.5%, down from an estimated 7.2% in 2013.

Key Industry...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Shipping
10
Business Environment
11
Economic
12
Political
13
Industry Forecast
14
Port of Varna Throughput Outlook
14
Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
18
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
18
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
19
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
20
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
20
Market Overview
21
Bulgaria Container Shipping Market Overview
21
Industry Trends And Developments
26
Company Profile
29
Navibulgar
29
Global Industry Overview - Container Shipping
31
Demand: Global Box Outlook Brightening
31
Supply: Overcapacity To Remain As More Megas Saturate The Market
42
Table: Container Line Mega-Vessel Newbuild Plans
44
Rates: A Strong Start, But Rate Management Must Continue
47
Table: 2012 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
51
Table: 2012 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
51
Global Industry Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
52
Demand: Stimulus Blip Playing Out, Bit For How Long-
52
Supply: Dry Bulk Fleet growth Slipping, But Overcapacity Still A Problem
57
Table: China Iron Ore Trade Partners Overview
63
Table: China Coal Trade Partners Overview
63
Global Industry Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
64
Improving Fundamentals In Dirty Tanker Market
64
Tonne-Mile Growth To Support Product Tanker Sector
67
LNG Boom To Stall In 2013
70
Global Company Strategy
73
Maersk Line
73
Mediterranean Shipping Company
82
CMA CGM
87
Evergreen Line
95
COSCO Container Lines Company
101
Hapag-Lloyd
108
Hanjin Shipping
114
APL
119
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
126
Mitsui OSK Lines
133
Macroeconomic Forecasts
138
Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity
143
Demographic Forecast
144
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
145
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
146
Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
147
Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
147

The Bulgaria Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Bulgaria.

BMI's Bulgaria Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Bulgaria.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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