Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Shipping Report

Published 01 December 2014

  • 109 pages
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$1,295.00
Bulgaria Shipping Report

Moderate Growth Expected At Varna In 2015

We are predicting modest cargo throughput at the port of Varna in 2015. Growth in tonnage will be slower relative to last year, reflecting a general deceleration of Bulgaria's foreign trade growth. Box traffic growth will also be subdued, but a little stronger than last year, in part because domestic consumption remains the main driver of the economy, and tends to require a high proportion of containerised imports.

No party or coalition won a clear majority in the October 5 2014 parliamentary elections. A month after the poll it appeared that former Prime Minister Boiko Borisov would preside over a minority government formed by his centre-right GERB party and the Reformist Bloc, an alliance of five smaller parties, also of the centre-right. Pending final coalition talks the outlook remained uncertain. Uncertainty has been weighing down on the country's modest recovery. BMI has trimmed its GDP growth forecast for Bulgaria to 1.9% in 2015 and 2.9% in 2016 (down from 2.5% and 3.2% respectively). This also reflects weaker than expected demand for exports from the eurozone and pressure on household spending, which for the moment remains the main motor of growth.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast to grow 3.8% to 17.086mn tonnes; over the medium-term (to 2019) we project an average annual increase of 4.2%.

  • 2015 port of Varna container throughput forecast to grow 3.0% to 139,060TEUs; over the medium-term we project a 3.9% average annual increase.

  • 2014 total trade growth forecast at 2.5%, down from an estimated 4.9% in 2014.

Key Industry Trends

Work Underway T o Improve Bulgarian Sector O f River Danube:   In October 2014 Nikolina Angelkova, Bulgaria's interim minister of transport, IT, and communications, said that a newly-built Danube River information centre, based in the city of Ruse, would start operating within a month and a half. Its aim was to manage a tracking and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Shipping
10
Business Environment
11
Economic
12
Political
13
Industry Forecast
14
Port of Varna Throughput Outlook
14
Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
18
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
18
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
19
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
20
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
20
Market Overview
21
Bulgaria Container Shipping Market Overview
21
Industry Trends And Developments
26
Company Profile
29
Navibulgar
29
Global Industry Overview - Container Shipping
31
Demand: Global Box Outlook Brightening
31
Supply: Overcapacity To Remain As More Megas Saturate The Market
42
Table: Container Line Mega-Vessel Newbuild Plans
44
Rates: A Strong Start, But Rate Management Must Continue
47
Table: 2012 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
51
Table: 2012 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
51
Global Industry Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
52
Demand: Stimulus Blip Playing Out, Bit For How Long-
52
Supply: Dry Bulk Fleet growth Slipping, But Overcapacity Still A Problem
57
Table: China Iron Ore Trade Partners Overview
63
Table: China Coal Trade Partners Overview
63
Global Industry Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
64
Improving Fundamentals In Dirty Tanker Market
64
Tonne-Mile Growth To Support Product Tanker Sector
67
LNG Boom To Stall In 2013
70
Global Company Strategy
73
Maersk Line
73
Mediterranean Shipping Company
82
CMA CGM
87
Evergreen Line
95
COSCO Container Lines Company
101
Hapag-Lloyd
108
Hanjin Shipping
114
APL
119
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
126
Mitsui OSK Lines
133
Macroeconomic Forecasts
138
Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity
143
Demographic Forecast
144
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
145
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
146
Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
147
Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
147

The Bulgaria Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Bulgaria.

BMI's Bulgaria Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Bulgaria.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc