Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Shipping Report

Published 19 February 2014

  • 109 pages
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$1,295.00
Bulgaria Shipping Report

Political Deadlock Holds Back Growth

BMI is maintaining its low estimate of Bulgaria's 2013 GDP growth at 0.5%, while we have very marginally edged up the growth forecast for this year to 1.6% (compared with 1.5% before). As can be seen we are somewhat unexcited about the outlook. To put that in context, however, there are some positives. These include rising goods and services exports to Europe, rising government spending, and some signs of strength in fixed investment. In fact, we expect GDP growth to trend upwards across the next five years, averaging 3.5% per annum. But before that materialises, there are some significant short-term downsides to deal with. The biggest is political. The ruling centre-left coalition under Prime Minister Plamen Oresharski promises fiscal responsibility and convergence with the European Union. But the centre-right GERB party holds most seats in Parliament and is blocking new legislation. Amid this ongoing political deadlock students and others continue protesting against corruption and the political class in general.

As our economic outlook for Bulgaria remains fundamentally unchanged, we are holding steady the forecasts for the Port of Varna. A small recovery will make itself felt in 2014 as both gross tonnage and box traffic are set to rise at above-GDP rates. This is in part explained by a more promising outlook on the trade front: measured in real terms, 2014 trade will grow by 5.5%, up from an estimated 3.9% in 2013. Over the medium term, plans to concession the port's container operations offer upside risk. We highlight that there has not yet been any interest in this, and the country's privatisation drive is centred on concessioning ports on Bulgaria's part of the Danube River instead.

Headline Industry Data

•2014 Port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast to grow 5.3% to 11.124mn tonnes; over the medium term (to 2018) we project an average annual increase of 4.6%.

•2014 Port of Varna container throughput forecast to grow...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Shipping
10
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Port Of Varna Throughput Outlook
14
Table: Major Port Throughput: Port of Varna
18
Table: Trade Overview
18
Table: Key Trade Indicators
19
Table: Top Import Sources, 2004-2012, US$mn
20
Table: Top Export Destinations 2004-2012, US$mn
21
Market Overview
22
Bulgaria Container Shipping Market Overview
22
Industry Trends And Developments
28
Company Profile
31
Navibulgar
31
Shipping - Global Industry View
33
Container Demand: Growth Outlook To Bolster 2014 Box Volumes
33
Container Supply: Overcapacity To Remain An Issue In 2014
43
Container Rates: Volatile As Demand Ticks Up, But Oversupply Remains
52
Table: Shipping Lines' Agents Offices Raided In Russia
57
Global Company Strategy
60
Maersk Line
60
Mediterranean Shipping Company
70
CMA CGM
76
Evergreen Line
84
COSCO Container Lines Company
91
Macroeconomic Forecasts
98
Economic Analysis
98
Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity
105
Demographic Forecast
106
Demographic Outlook
106
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
107
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
108
Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
109
Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
109

The Bulgaria Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Bulgaria.

BMI's Bulgaria Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Bulgaria.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc