BMI View: Stagnant consumer and business confidence, slowing investment and fiscal problems will hinder both the Bulgarian economy and its retail sector. The economy of the EU's poorest member will face a harsh year in 2015, as will its retail sector , and they will only start rebounding afterwards. Despite that, household income will grow and the retail sector will be come increasingly diversif ied .
As a result of the economic slowdown in the euro zone, Bulgaria's economy will undergo a harsh year in 2015. Overall macroeconomic climate is affecting consumer and business confidence, as well as investment in the country. BMI forecasts that the country's GDP will rise by only 1.9% in 2015 as a result of rising pessimism. The retail sector will also experience a slowdown, as we expect total household spending to fall by 6.1% in US dollar terms in the same year. The government, meanwhile, struggles to balance its finances and passed the 2015 budget bill with 3% deficit and remains in need of credit - it has recently borrowed EUR1.5bn to bridge the gap in its budget. Despite the currently gloomy economic environment we forecast that increasing level of integration in the European market and rising household income will help the Bulgarian economy and the retail sector to recover starting from 2017.
The Bulgarian retail sector has already proven that it has the ability to benefit from EU membership. It has already demonstrated a high level of competitiveness and foreign retail chains have willingly entered the country. In the first five years of EU membership, starting from 2007, modern retail grew from 42% to 55% of the overall retail sector. It continues to grow and provide competition to the privately-owned small corner shops which still dominate in rural areas. In the cities, meanwhile, the mass grocery retail market is divided between ten foreign and domestic retail chains. Almost none has more than 100 stores in the country, with the total number of...
The Bulgaria Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Bulgaria Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.