Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Retail Report

Published 30 June 2014

  • 83 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Bulgaria Retail Report

BMI View: A relatively immature retail sector will continue to provide investors with opportunities to secure 'catch-up' growth, while February retail sales data also provides cause for optimism, and as such, risks to our retail forecasts are weighted to the upside. Nonetheless, a modest economic growth forecast for 2014, still-high unemployment levels and a very weak demographic picture continue to dominate our forecasts and ensure that Bulgaria remains at the foot of our regional Risk/Reward Ratings for the regional sector.

In line with the upside risks that our Country Risk team notes to our current Bulgarian real GDP growth forecast of 1.6% in 2014, we note upside risks to our household spending forecasts. February retail sales data underscores this point, with year-on-year retail sales growth coming in at 9.2%, an eleventh consecutive month in positive territory and the highest growth recorded since mid-2012. The stronger performance of non-food retail sales versus food (growth of 13.8% and 8.5% respectively) highlight that non-essential retail is performing robustly.

Another key development of note this quarter is ongoing consolidation activity in the country's retail sector. Within grocery retail, AP Mart has announced that it is to acquire 54 Piccadilly and Piccadilly Daily supermarket and convenience stores from Belgium's Delhaize Group, while within home improvement retail, Videolux Holdings is to add to its consumer electronics presence in the country with the acquisition of Germany's Praktiker's nine DIY stores.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • Total household spending in Bulgaria is forecast to increase by 22.6% to BGN59bn in 2018.

  • We expect household goods expenditure to witness the strongest growth over this forecast period, expanding by 34.1% in local currency terms, with spending on household appliances the primary driver.

  • Food and beverage spending will experience the most modest growth, expanding by only 14.5% in local currency terms, as strong...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Industry Forecast
12
Headline Retail Forecast
12
Table: Total Household Spending, 2011-2018
13
Table: Retail Sector Spending (%), 2011-2018
14
Table: Retail Sector Spending as % of GDP, 2011-2018
14
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending, 2011-2018
15
Retail Subsectors Forecast
16
Food & Drink
17
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending, 2011-2018
17
Clothing & Footwear
18
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending, 2011-2018
19
Household Goods
19
Table: Household Goods Spending, 2011-2018
20
Personal Care & Effects
20
Table: Personal Care Spending, 2011-2018
21
Households Forecast
21
Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
23
Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
24
Demographic Forecast
25
Table: Population: Total, 2011-2018
27
Table: Population; By Age, 2011-2018
27
Table: Population; Urban, 2011-2018
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Economic Analysis
30
Table: Bulgaria GDP Table
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Table: Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Rating
38
Rewards
38
Risks
38
Market Overview
39
Retail Subsectors
40
Tourism
41
Competitive Landscape
43
Food & Drink
43
Clothing & Footwear
44
Homewares / Home Improvement
44
Duty Free
45
Glossary
46
Methodology
53
Industry Forecast Methodology
53
Sources
56
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
56
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
58
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
59

The Bulgaria Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Bulgaria Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc