Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Retail Report

Published 03 October 2014

  • 83 pages
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$1,295.00
Bulgaria Retail Report

BMI View:   BMI expects the Bulgarian economy to continue making a modest recovery over our projection period into 2018. However, the retail market ranks as one weakest in the Central and Eastern European Region ,   placing second to last in BMI's Retail Risk/ Reward Ratings for the region . 

Despite Bulgaria's anaemic growth, developers are investing in new shopping complexes as well as updating current structures in the country. Bulgaria maintains one of the least saturated retail markets in Europe. In September, Mega Mall celebrated its opening in the capital of Sofia. With 24,000sq m of gross leasable area, the shopping complex is home to a mix of 100 local and global retailers, a supermarket and entertainment area. New shopping complexes are also being developed in second tier cities. In 2014, Panorama Mall opened in Pleven, Bulgaria's seventh largest city with a population of 106,000. The new development is expected to create 400 new positions and house international retailers such as French Carrefour and other global fashion brands such as Swedish H&M. Within the current construction pipeline, Plaza West is expected to be delivered in H115

Bulgaria's shadow economy may deter investors from entering the local market. According to the World Bank's report on Europe's informal economy, 'In From the Shadow: Integrating Europe's Informal Labor', Bulgaria maintains one of the largest shadow economies on the continent with an estimated 31% of its total GDP belonging to the country's informal economy. Separate reports released by the European Commission and Visa Europe have also produced similar figures. In comparison, the average level of informal economies in Europe is estimated to be at 18%. The risk of maintaining a shadow economy comes at the expense of Serbia's long term growth potential. According to the report, people choose to stay within the shadow of an informal economy because the cost of leaving comes at a higher rate compared to staying in...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Industry Forecast
12
Headline Retail Forecast
12
Table: Total Household Spending (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
14
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
15
Retail Sector Forecast
16
Food & Drink
16
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
17
Clothing & Footwear
17
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
18
Household Goods
18
Table: Household Goods Spending (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
19
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
20
Table: Household Income Data (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
22
Table: Labour Market Data (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
24
Demographic Forecast
25
Table: Total Population (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
26
Table: Population: Babies (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
26
Table: Population: Young Children (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
27
Table: Population: Children (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
27
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
27
Table: Population: Young People (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
28
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
28
Table: Population: 21yrs+ (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
28
Table: Population: Young Adults (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
29
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
29
Table: Population: Urban (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Table: Bulgaria GDP Table
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Table: Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Rating
37
Rewards
37
Risks
37
Market Overview
38
Retail Subsectors
39
Tourism
40
Competitive Landscape
42
Food & Drink
42
Clothing & Footwear
43
Homewares / Home Improvement
43
Duty Free
44
Glossary
45
Methodology
52
Industry Forecast Methodology
52
Sources
55
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
55
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
57
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
58

The Bulgaria Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Bulgaria Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc