Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Real Estate Report

Published 26 September 2014

  • 64 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Bulgaria Real Estate Report

BMI View: We are expecting short-term stability in Bulgaria's commercial real estate market, with stable rental rates and yields over the rest of 2014 and 2015. M acroeconomic stability and steadily growing GDP, fixed investment and consumer spending will bode well for the future development of the sector, both in terms of rental rates and new projects.

GDP growth is expected to increase steadily over our forecast period, reaching 4.1% by 2018. This will provide a backdrop for increased investment by companies and spending by individuals, supporting growth in the commercial real estate market in general. Increased industrial activity and exports will be a positive for industrial real estate, while falling unemployment will boost consumer spending, and demand for retail space.

The office real estate market will be driven by company expansions as the economy improves. Bulgaria's business process outsourcing (BPO) industry has been growing rapidly, and the country's BPO association is hoping to expand the industry outside Sofia to other areas of the country, which should boost demand for office space.

Organised retail is increasingly important in Bulgaria, and as household incomes and spending rise, we see significant opportunities in this area. Meanwhile, international retailers, including mass grocery retailers, are taking a growing interest in the market and should provide significant demand for high quality retail space.

The growth of organised retail in Bulgaria also will boost demand for warehousing and industrial space. In the longer term we also see demand for more specialised industrial space as European manufacturers outsource some of their production to Bulgaria.

Sofia is currently the focal point for international firms operating in Bulgaria, as well as home to many domestic firms and the country's outsourcing industry. We see commercial real estate opportunities remaining strong there, although we do caution that oversupply, particularly in terms of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Office
15
Table: Forecast Office Rents, 2014-2015 (USD per m2/month)
15
Table: Forecast Office Net Yields, 2011-2018 (%)
16
Retail
16
Table: Forecast Retail Rents, 2014-2015 (USD per m2/month)
16
Table: Forecast Retail Net Yields, 2011-2018 (%)
17
Industrial
17
Table: Forecast Industrial Rents, 2014-2015 (USD per m2/month)
17
Table: Forecast Industrial Net Yields, 2011-2018 (%)
17
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
18
Industry Forecast
18
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
18
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
19
Macroeconomic Forecasts
24
Economic Analysis
24
Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Bulgaria - Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Rewards
33
Risks
33
Market Overview
35
Office
36
Table: Historic Rental Costs, 2012-2014 (USD per m2/month)
36
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2014 (%)
37
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H213
37
Retail
37
Table: Historic Rental Costs, 2012-2014 (USD per m2/month)
37
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2014 (%)
38
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H213
38
Industrial
39
Table: Historic Rental Costs, 2012-2014 (USD per m2/month)
39
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2014 (%)
39
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H213
40
Competitive Landscape
41
Company Profile
42
Balkanstroy JSC
42
East Balkan Properties
44
Glavbolgarstroy
46
Holcim (Bulgaria)
48
Mott MacDonald
50
Demographic Forecast
53
Demographic Outlook
53
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
54
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
55
Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
56
Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
56
Methodology
57
Industry Forecast Methodology
57
Sources
58
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
58
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
61

The Bulgaria Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.

BMI's Bulgaria Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Bulgaria.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian real estate market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.

Market Overview

Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.

Market Analysis

Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historical data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:

Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%)

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$)

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Real Estate Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) in the regional real estate market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc