Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Real Estate Report

Published 12 February 2014

  • 64 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Bulgaria Real Estate Report

BMI View: Bulgaria's commercial real estate market is showing signs of life in 2014, with the latest industry indicators pointing to an uptick in demand and rental activity across the retail and industrial subsectors in particular. A gradually improving macroeconomic backdrop should provide some stimulus to investment and growth in rental rates in 2014 . However, the real estate sector face s a number of headwinds in 2014, including oversupply, weak consumer spending and deflationary pressures.

With a focus on the country's principal cities of Sofia, Varna and Burgas, the report covers rental market performance in terms of rates and yields across the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction sectors.

A number of key economic indicators support our view that the real estate segment will enjoy a return to growth in 2014. At the top of the list, the country will see a significant acceleration in economic growth, with GDP forecast to expand by 1.6% in 2014, compared with just 0.5% in 2013. We expect the most positive impact from this to be in the retail and industrial real estate sub-sectors, which will benefit from a continued improvement in consumer spending and industrial and manufacturing activity, respectively. Bulgaria is benefiting from improving external demand, and we expect public spending and a positive contribution of net exports to continue to support real estate investment and growth in 2014.

On the other hand, according to our in-country sources, the office rental sector will continue to struggle due to an ongoing supply-demand issue.

In addition, the deflationary environment in Bulgaria poses a further risk to the real estate sector, with falling prices threatening to feed through into a drop in property prices and yield levels. Conversely, falling inflation levels would likely ensure that interest rates remain low, supporting lending.

Recent Developments

  • US-based Tishman International has completed construction of the Sofia...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Office
15
Table: Forecast Office Rents, 2013-2014 (US$ per m2/month)
15
Table: Forecast Office Net Yields, 2011-2018 (%)
15
Retail
16
Table: Forecast Retail Rents, 2013-2014 (US$ per m2/month)
16
Table: Forecast Retail Net Yields, 2011-2018 (%)
16
Industrial
16
Table: Forecast Industial Rents, 2013-2014 (US$ per m2/month
17
Table: Forecast Industrial Net Yields, 2011-2018 (%)
17
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
17
Industry Forecast
17
Table: Bulgaria Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
17
Table: Bulgaria Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
19
Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Economic Analysis
25
Table: BULGARIA - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Bulgaria - Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Rewards
34
Risks
34
Market Overview
36
Office
37
Table: Historic Rental Costs, 2012-2013 (US$ per m2/month)
38
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2013 (%)
38
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H213
39
Retail
39
Table: Historic Rental Costs, 2012-2013 (US$ per m2/month)
40
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2013 (%)
40
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H213
41
Retail Sales Indicators
41
Table: Bulgaria Retail, 2011-2017
41
Industrial
41
Table: Historic Rental Costs, 2012-2013 (US$ per m2/month)
42
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2013 (%)
43
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H213
43
Competitive Landscape
44
Company Profile
45
Balkanstroy JSC
45
East Balkan Properties
47
Glavbolgarstroy
49
Holcim (Bulgaria)
51
Mott MacDonald
53
Demographic Forecast
56
Demographic Outlook
56
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
57
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
58
Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
59
Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
59
Methodology
60
Industry Forecast Methodology
60
Sources
61
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
61
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Bulgaria Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.

BMI's Bulgaria Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Bulgaria.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian real estate market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.

Market Overview

Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.

Market Analysis

Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historical data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:

Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%)

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$)

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Real Estate Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) in the regional real estate market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc