Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 20 May 2014

  • 101 pages
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$1,295.00
Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: T he Ministry of Health 's plan to increase MAH fees, coupled with price cuts for generic drugs and freezes on OTC medicine prices indicate that the Bulgarian pharmaceutical market will not see meaningful growth in 2014 . However, we expect a pickup in demand for innovative drugs to reinvigorate interest in the country, alt hough it will continue to present a relatively small opportunity for drugmakers in the region.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.32bn (USD1.58bn) in 2013 to BGN2.39bn (USD1.60bn) in 2014; +2.9% in local currency terms and 1.3% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast revised due to currency strengthening.

  • Healthcare: BGN5.69bn (USD3.87bn) in 2013 to BGN5.87bn (USD3.93bn) in 2014; +3.1% in local currency terms and +1.5% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast revised upwards due to currency strengthening.

Risk/Reward Ratings: In Q3 2014, Bulgaria's Risks and Rewards scores stand above the regional average at 55. The scores take into account the challenges for drugmakers operating in Bulgaria, such as the downward pressure on the prices of drugs and the uncertain political outlook, in addition to positive factors, such as increasing per capita consumption of medicines, albeit from a relatively low base.

Key Trends And Developments

  • The NHIF has revised its policy of reviewing drugs for inclusion on its reimbursement list. The review will now take place annually instead of every six months.

  • The Ministry of Health plans to raise tariffs and fees on marketing authorisation holders, increasing the cost of drug registrations in the country per drug molecule. This could prove expensive for companies with portfolios of thousands of drugs.

  • On Wednesday 29 January 2014, the Bulgarian government voted to raise health insurance premiums by 2% for all employed Bulgarians, raising the proportion of income spent on health insurance to 10%. The taxes will bring in the BGN350mn (USD245mn) needed to shore up the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018)
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Members Of Bulgarian Generic Pharmaceutical Manufacturers' Association (BGPharmA*), 2011
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018)
24
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
25
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018)
26
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts, USDmn (Bulgaria 2012-2018)
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts, BGNmn (Bulgaria 2012-2018)
28
Other Healthcare Data
29
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Rewards
46
Risks
46
Market Overview
48
Industry Trends And Developments
49
Epidemiology
49
Table: Main Causes Of Death In Bulgaria (per 100,000 population)
50
Communicable Diseases
51
Table: Reported Cases Of HIV/AIDS, 2002-2009
52
Healthcare Sector
52
Healthcare Insurance
53
Healthcare Reform Through To 2020
54
Healthcare Financing
55
Table: NHIF Budget, 2014
57
Research & Development
57
Table: Members Of ARPharM, 2011
58
Clinical Trials
58
Regulatory Development
59
Pharmaceutical Advertising
60
Intellectual Property Environment
61
Pricing Regime
62
Drug Policy Amendments
64
Reimbursement Regime
66
Reimbursement Regime Developments
68
Competitive Landscape
69
Pharmaceutical Industry
69
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
71
Wholesale Sector
71
Table: Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail Market, 2009-2012
73
Company Profile
74
Sopharma
74
Biovet
78
Actavis Bulgaria
80
GlaxoSmithKline
82
Novartis
84
Sanofi
86
Pfizer
88
Merck & Co
90
Demographic Forecast
91
Demographic Outlook
91
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
92
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
93
Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
94
Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
94
Glossary
95
Methodology
97
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
97
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
97
Notes On Methodology
98
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
99
Ratings Overview
100
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
100
Indicator Weightings
101

The Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc