Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 12 November 2014

  • 104 pages
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$1,295.00
Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:  Large order increases from within the hospital sector and robust consumer demand  will  spur pharmaceutical sales growth in 2014 and 2015. However, external slowdown will begin to impact the Bulgarian market from 2015 onwards. Bulgaria's healthcare system will continue to face issues around its funding.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.32bn (USD1.58bn) in 2013 to BGN2.44bn (USD1.67bn) in 2014; +5.0% in local currency terms and 5.7% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast revised upward due to expectations of lev appreciation.

  • Healthcare: BGN5.89bn (USD4.00bn) in 2013 to BGN6.06bn (USD4.14bn) in 2014; +2.8% in local currency terms and +3.5% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast revised upwards due to currency strengthening.

Risk/Reward Ratings: In Q115, Bulgaria's Risks and Rewards scores stand above the regional average at 52.6. The scores take into account the challenges for drugmakers operating in Bulgaria, such as the downward pressure on the prices of drugs and the uncertain political outlook, in addition to positive factors, such as increasing per capita consumption of medicines, albeit from a relatively low base.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Public procurement procedures launched by former Health Minister Tanya Andreeva will be halted, her interim successor Miroslav Nenkov has ruled. The procedures were worth BGN30mn (USD20.36mn) to the country's healthcare sector. The procurement procedures will be frozen due to several flaws, including the tenders expected, stated Nenkov. However, the ministry also stated that it will not abandon the procedures, but will consider how to resolve problematic aspects of them.

  • Drugmakers raised prices of 112 popular OTC drugs by 4-5% after a moratorium on price ceilings ended in September.

  • The outgoing Bulgarian parliament voted on July 29 for a widening of the 2014 fiscal deficit target and raising of BGN3.4bn (USD2.33bn) in new debt, thereby providing the next government some...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Bulgaria Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Bulgaria Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
19
Table: Bulgaria Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
20
Table: Bulgaria Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Bulgaria Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Bulgaria Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
24
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Members Of Bulgarian Generic Pharmaceutical Manufacturers' Association (BGPharmA*), 2011
26
Table: Bulgaria Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
27
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
27
Table: Bulgaria OTC Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
29
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
30
Table: Bulgaria Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (2012-2018)
31
Table: Bulgaria Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (2012-2018)
32
Other Healthcare Data
32
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
33
Macroeconomic Forecasts
34
Economic Analysis
34
Table: Bulgaria Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
41
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Index
48
Rewards
48
Risks
48
Market Overview
50
Industry Trends And Developments
51
Epidemiology
51
Table: Main Causes Of Death In Bulgaria (per 100,000 population)
52
Communicable Diseases
53
Table: Reported Cases Of HIV/AIDS, 2002-2009
54
Healthcare Sector
54
Healthcare Insurance
55
Healthcare Reform Through To 2020
56
Healthcare Financing
58
Table: NHIF Budget, 2014
59
Research & Development
59
Table: Members Of ARPharM, 2011
60
Clinical Trials
60
Regulatory Development
61
Pharmaceutical Advertising
62
Intellectual Property Environment
63
Pricing Regime
64
Drug Policy Amendments
66
Reimbursement Regime
68
Reimbursement Regime Developments
70
Competitive Landscape
71
Pharmaceutical Industry
71
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
73
Wholesale Sector
73
Table: Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail Market, 2009-2012
75
Company Profile
76
Sopharma
76
Biovet
80
Actavis Bulgaria
82
GlaxoSmithKline
84
Novartis
86
Sanofi
88
Pfizer
90
Merck & Co
92
Demographic Forecast
93
Demographic Outlook
93
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
94
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
95
Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
96
Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
96
Glossary
97
Methodology
99
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
99
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
99
Notes On Methodology
100
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
101
Index Overview
102
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
102
Indicator Weightings
103

The Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgaria pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Bulgaria, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc