Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report

Published 04 March 2014

  • 112 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: The Bulgarian business environment remains challenging , suffering from high levels of corruption and inefficiency , while a moratorium on hydraulic fracturing remains in place . Bulgaria's oil sector is uninspiring with limited new activity and a continued decline in domestic production. Upside in Bulgaria's oil and gas sector comes from the US $1.2bn investment to upgrade the Neftochim refinery which will add a 50,000 barrel per day vacuum distillation unit , and from the natural gas sector which is looking increasingly positive. New gas projects being brought online both on and offshore will add to domestic output, as well as growing prospects from offshore seismic projects.

The main trends and developments in Bulgaria's oil and gas sector are:

  • In September 2013, PetroCeltic successfully completed the tie-back of the Kaliakra-1 well to the Galata production platform. The addition of the Kaliakra tie-back will boost gas production to just over 500mn cubic metres (Mcm) in 2013.

  • In January 2014, TransAtlantic Petroleum announced the continuation of drilling at the Deventci-R2 well in the Koynare concession. Sales of gas from the well are expected from 2014, with the wider area helping Bulgaria to continue year-on-year growth of domestic gas production through to 2016. Further 3D seismic to study structures of the Koynare fault trend is also due for 2014. The offshore East Kavarna field is planned to be brought on stream in 2015, further adding to gas production growth. We anticipate production to reach 800Mcm by 2017.

  • Further upside to Black Sea potential could be gained in the Khan-Asparuh block, to the South of Romania's successful Neptun block. In late 2013, OMV, Total and Repsol completed the largest 3D seismic survey ever in the Black Sea. Data is now being analysed, with Total due to operate any potential drilling programme.

  • Despite growing interest in the Black Sea, it has not all been positive. The tender for the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Bulgaria Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Bulgaria Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
13
Table: Bulgaria Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
13
Table: Bulgaria Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
14
Gas Supply And Demand
15
Table: Bulgaria Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Bulgaria Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
17
Refining And Oil Products Trade
19
Table: Bulgaria Refining Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
19
Table: Bulgaria Refining Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
20
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
24
East Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
24
Russia: Large Resource Base But Limited Opportunities
26
Regional Minnows Breaking In
28
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
29
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
29
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Bulgaria - Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Market Overview
35
Bulgaria Energy Market Overview
35
Overview/State Role
37
Government Policy
37
Licensing Rounds
38
International Energy Relations
39
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
40
Oil Refineries
40
Table: Refineries In Bulgaria
40
Service Stations
41
Oil Storage Facilities
41
Oil Terminals/Ports
41
Oil Pipelines
41
LNG Terminals
41
Gas Storage Facilities
42
Gas Pipelines
42
Competitive Landscape
45
Competitive Landscape Summary
45
Table: Key Players In The Bulgarian Oil And Gas Sector
46
Table: Key Upstream Players
47
Table: Key Downstream Players
47
Company Profile
48
Lukoil Neftekhim
48
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
52
Petrol
54
OMV Bulgaria
56
EKO Bulgaria
59
Petroceltic
62
Other Summaries
66
Shell Bulgaria
68
Regional Overview
70
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
70
A Mutually Dependent Relationship
72
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
73
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
74
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
76
South Stream Looking Weak
77
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
77
Shale Gas Showdown
78
Global Industry Overview
81
Appendix
88
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
88
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
92
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
93
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
94
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
94
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
95
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
96
Bulgaria - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
97
Table: Bulgaria Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2012-2017
97
Table: Bulgaria Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2018-2023
98
Table: Bulgaria Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2012-2017
99
Table: Bulgaria Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2018-2023
100
Table: Bulgaria Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2012-2017
101
Table: Bulgaria Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2018-2023
102
Glossary
104
Table: Glossary Of Terms
104
Methodology
106
Industry Forecast Methodology
106
Source
108
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
108
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
110
Table: Weighting
112

The Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Bulgaria including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc