Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report

Published 04 December 2014

  • 112 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report
Headline Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2018)
  2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 163.2 165.7 168.2 170.7 173.2 206.2 209.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 115.2 114.6 115.3 116.8 118.9 121.3 124.2
f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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BMI View:   The Bulgarian business environment remains challenging ,   suffering from   high levels of corruption and inefficiency . Bulgaria's oil sector is uninspiring with limited new activity and a continued decline in domestic production. Upside in Bulgaria's oil and gas sector comes from the USD 1. 5 bn investment to upgrade the Neftochim refinery which will add a 50,000 barrel per day vacuum distillation unit , and from the natural gas sector which is looking increasingly positive. New gas projects being brought online both on and offshore will add to domestic output, as well as new offshore exploration .

The main trends and developments in Bulgaria's oil and gas sector are:

  • Since the election of the GERB-led government coalition, Bulgaria appears to have turned against the South Stream pipeline until it complies with EU law. The government has instead called for improved gas pipeline interconnectors throughout Eastern Europe.

  • Lower oil prices will offer an indirect stimulus to the Bulgarian economy by reducing fuel prices.

  • PetroCeltic is planning to bring the offshore East Kavarna field on stream in 2015, further adding to gas production growth. We anticipate production to reach 800mn cubic metres (Mcm) by 2017.

  • TransAtlantic Petroleum is expecting gas sales from its Koynare...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Table: Oil Production (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
13
Table: Oil Production (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
13
Upstream Production - Gas
15
Table: Gas Production (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
15
Table: Gas Production (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
15
Refining
18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
18
Refined Fuels Consumption
21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
21
Gas Consumption
23
Table: Gas Consumption (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
23
Table: Gas Consumption (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
23
Trade - Oil
25
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
25
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
25
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
27
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
29
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
29
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
29
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
29
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
33
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Limited Supportive Policy
36
Regional Minnows Breaking Through
37
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
38
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
38
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Bulgaria - Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Market Overview
43
Bulgaria Energy Market Overview
43
Overview/State Role
45
Government Policy
45
Licensing Rounds
46
International Energy Relations
47
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
48
Oil Refineries
48
Table: Refineries In Bulgaria
48
Service Stations
49
Oil Storage Facilities
49
Oil Terminals/Ports
49
Oil Pipelines
49
LNG Terminals
49
Gas Storage Facilities
50
Gas Pipelines
50
Competitive Landscape
53
Competitive Landscape Summary
53
Table: Key Players In The Bulgarian Oil And Gas Sector
54
Table: Key Upstream Players
55
Table: Key Downstream Players
55
Company Profile
56
Lukoil Neftekhim
56
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
60
Petrol
63
OMV Bulgaria
65
EKO Bulgaria
68
Petroceltic
71
Shell Bulgaria
74
Other Summaries
76
Regional Overview
78
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Overview
78
CEE Oil Production - Russia Dominates, Caspian Output To Grow
78
CEE Oil Consumption - Regional Demand Outpacing Supply
79
CEE Refining Capacity - Few Bright Spots
80
CEE Natural Gas Production - Caspian Firing Up China
81
CEE Gas Consumption - New Gas Mainly Exported
82
Global Industry Overview
84
Global Energy Market Overview
84
Appendix
90
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
90
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
90
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
91
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
93
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
96
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
97
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
98
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
99
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
100
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
100
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
101
Bulgaria - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
102
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
102
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
102
Bulgaria - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
103
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
103
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
108
Glossary
110
Table: Glossary Of Terms
110
Methodology
112
Industry Forecast Methodology
112
Source
114
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
114
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
116
Table: Weighting
117

The Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Bulgaria including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc