Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report

Published 09 June 2014

  • 112 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report
Headline Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2018)
  2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 163.2 165.7 168.2 170.7 173.2 206.2 209.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 115.2 114.2 114.9 116.4 118.5 120.9 123.7
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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BMI View:   The Bulgarian business environment remains challenging ,   suffering from   high levels of corruption and inefficiency , while a moratorium on hydraulic fracturing remains   in place . Bulgaria's oil sector is uninspiring with limited new activity and a continued decline in domestic production. Upside in Bulgaria's oil and gas sector comes from the USD 1. 5 bn investment to upgrade the Neftochim refinery which will add a 50,000 barrel per day vacuum distillation unit , and from the natural gas sector which is looking increasingly positive. New gas projects being brought online both on and offshore will add to domestic output, as well as growing prospects from offshore seismic projects.

The main trends and developments in Bulgaria's oil and gas sector are:

  • Bulgaria has finally made a choice on South Stream halting work on the project in August 2014 until it complies with EU law.

  • Despite the closure of Chevron's corporate office in Sofia in mid-2014, the mining industry is ramping-up pressure to lift the moratorium on hydraulic fracturing.

  • PetroCeltic is planning to bring the offshore East Kavarna field on stream in 2015, further adding to gas production growth. We anticipate production to reach 800mn cubic metres (Mcm) by 2017.

  • TransAtlantic Petroleum is expecting...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Bulgaria Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Bulgaria Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
12
Table: Bulgaria Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
12
Table: Bulgaria Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
13
Gas Supply And Demand
14
Table: Bulgaria Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
14
Table: Bulgaria Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
15
Refining And Oil Products Trade
18
Table: Bulgaria Refining Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
18
Table: Bulgaria Refining Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
19
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
22
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
23
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Growing Technical Challenges
26
Regional Minnows Breaking In
27
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
28
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
28
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Bulgaria - Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Market Overview
34
Bulgaria Energy Market Overview
34
Overview/State Role
36
Government Policy
36
Licensing Rounds
37
International Energy Relations
38
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
39
Oil Refineries
39
Table: Refineries In Bulgaria
39
Service Stations
40
Oil Storage Facilities
40
Oil Terminals/Ports
40
Oil Pipelines
40
LNG Terminals
40
Gas Storage Facilities
41
Gas Pipelines
41
Competitive Landscape
44
Competitive Landscape Summary
44
Table: Key Players In The Bulgarian Oil And Gas Sector
45
Table: Key Upstream Players
46
Table: Key Downstream Players
46
Company Profile
47
Lukoil Neftekhim
47
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
51
Petrol
54
OMV Bulgaria
56
EKO Bulgaria
59
Petroceltic
62
Shell Bulgaria
66
Other Summaries
68
Regional Overview
70
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
70
Trade Dynamic To Persist But Growth Moves East
72
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
73
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
75
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
77
South Stream Looking Weak
78
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
78
Shale Gas Showdown
79
Global Industry Overview
82
Global Energy Market Overview
82
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
84
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
85
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
86
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
88
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
88
Appendix
91
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
91
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
95
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
96
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
97
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
98
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
98
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
99
Bulgaria - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
100
Table: Bulgaria Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2012-2017
100
Table: Bulgaria Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2018-2023
101
Table: Bulgaria Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2012-2017
102
Table: Bulgaria Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2018-2023
103
Table: Bulgaria Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2012-2017
105
Table: Bulgaria Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2018-2023
105
Glossary
107
Table: Glossary Of Terms
107
Methodology
109
Industry Forecast Methodology
109
Source
111
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
111
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
113
Table: Weighting
114

The Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Bulgaria including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc