Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Infrastructure Report

Published 17 June 2014

  • 66 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Bulgaria Infrastructure Report

BMI View: We maintain our construction industry forecast for Bulgaria at 1.3% real growth in 2014, a return to positive growth after five consecutive years of contraction. S igns of improvement in Bulgaria's construction sector have been confirmed by official Q114 data , which reported low , but positive growth. W e believe the worst is over for the industry and we expect transport and energy infrastructure projects to drive the recovery .

Key Trends And Developments

  • Infrastructure projects in Bulgaria continue to face strong headwinds due to the lack of investor confidence and endemic corruption. We forecast low, but positive growth to return to the construction industry in 2014 with 1.3% real growth, after five years of recession.

  • Elevated unemployment reinforces our view that Bulgaria's economy continues to face major challenges in the form of low business and consumer confidence. Although we expect the unemployment rate to decline in line with faster growth in 2014, we caution that a continued spike in the number of unemployed will hinder growth in the residential sector.

  • Bulgaria remains highly dependent on EU funding for infrastructure projects, particularly in the transport sector. As such, slow EU recovery will limit the speed of Bulgaria's transport infrastructure growth.

  • Growth in Bulgaria's energy and utilities sector has been subdued due to increased fiscal constraints and a lack of consistent foreign competition and skills. The sector faces a slow path to recovery, but we believe the worst is over.

  • In the gas sector, Bulgaria is involved in Russia's South Stream pipeline. However, following the crisis in Ukraine and EU sanctions on Russia, construction of South Stream has been halted until it complies with European law, as stated by Bulgarian Prime Minister Plamen Oresharski in June 2014.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Infrastructure SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
10
Industry Forecast
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
11
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
16
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
16
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
17
Major Projects Table - Transport
22
Table: Major Projects Table - Transport
22
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
25
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
25
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
26
Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
30
Table: Major Projects Table - Energy And Utilities
30
Residential/NonResidential Building - Outlook And Overview
34
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Bulgaria 2012-2017)
34
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Bulgaria 2018-2023)
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Bulgaria - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Rewards
37
Risks
37
Central And Eastern Europe - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Limited Access To Funding
43
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk Reward Ratings
44
Market Overview
45
Competitive Landscape
45
Table: EQS Table
46
Company Profile
47
Glavbolgarstroy
47
Mott MacDonald
49
Global Industry Overview
51
Middle East/North Africa Presents Strongest Investment Profile
51
Methodology
57
Industry Forecast Methodology
57
Sector-Specific Methodology
58
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
62
Sector-Specific Methodology
63
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Bulgaria Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Bulgaria Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Bulgarian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, renewable projects, pipelines and so on).

Industry Trends

Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport, utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:

Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments, including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.

Building Materials Overview

The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data point.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).

Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways, airports, roads and bridges, ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and water infrastructure).

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc