Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Freight Transport Report

Published 15 December 2014

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Bulgaria Freight Transport Report

Bulgaria registered a 3.8% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) rise in the transportation of freight goods in Q1 2014, according to preliminary seasonally adjusted data released by the National Statistical Institute. Goods transported by land and water climbed 19.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the same period, according to the preliminary non-adjusted data, reported by Focus.

Although 2015 will see a slightly slower growth rate across the freight modes in Bulgaria compared to 12 months previous, we still anticipate moderate growth to be the norm this year. Leading the way is set to be the road freight sector (7.30% y-o-y growth), while air freight is also pencilled in to register healthy y-o-y gains of 5.00%.

That said, the large contractions in growth that peppered the latter years of the '00s and the early '10s look to be a thing of the past, which is welcome news going into the midterm.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 tonnage throughput at the Port of Varna is forecast to grow by 3.76% to 17.09mn tonnes.

  • 2015 air freight tonnage forecast to grow by 5.00% to reach 21,660 tonnes.

  • 2015 rail freight tonnage forecast to increase by 3.00% to hit 14.59mn tonnes.

  • 2015 road freight tonnage forecast to rise by 7.30% to reach 185.73mn tonnes

  • 2015 total trade (real terms) forecast to rise 2.52%.

Key Industry Trends

Trains To Begin Running Over Danube Bridge 2: Passenger and freight trains are expected to begin running over the Danube Bridge 2, from February or March 2014, according to Kristian Krastev, CEO of the Bulgarian state-owned railways company BDZ Holding. The project, which is part of the Pan-European transport corridor IV and will link Vidin in Bulgaria and Calafat in Romania, represents an investment of EUR282mn (USD386.7mn). The EU has contributed EUR106mn (USD145.3mn), while the remaining amount was paid by national financing and private investments.

Burgas And Vargas To Be Used In Pipeline Project: The Bulgarian ports of Burgas and Varna are to be used as...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Bulgaria's Freight Transport Industry SWOT
7
Bulgaria Political SWOT
8
Bulgaria Economic SWOT
9
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
9
Industry Trends And Developments
10
Rail Freight
10
Road Freight
11
Air
12
Inland Waterway
12
Maritime Freight
14
Market Overview
15
Industry Forecast
20
Table: Road Freight, 2010-2017
21
Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
22
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2010-2017
23
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
24
Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
25
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
25
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
26
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
27
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
27
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
28
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016
29
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
33
Political Outlook
38
Domestic Politics
38
Long-Term Political Outlook
39
Macroeconomic Outlook
42
Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
44
Company Profiles
45
BDZ Cargo
45
DB Schenker Bulgaria
47
Bulgaria Demographic Outlook
49
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
50
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
51
Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
52
Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
52
BMI Methodology
53
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
53
Transport Industry
53
Sources
54

The Bulgaria Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Bulgaria Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc