Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Freight Transport Report

Published 31 December 2013

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Bulgaria Freight Transport Report

BMI View: Political instability in Bulgaria will continue to stifle private consumption and investment, weighing on headline growth through 2014 and proving detrimental to the country ' s freight industry. Despite government expenditures and a positive contribution from net exports propping up economic activity, real GDP growth will reach just 0.5% and 1.5% in 2013 and 2014 respectively.

The effect of political instability in Bulgaria is evident in Q2 2013 data, with weak investment and private consumption leading to the first year-on-year (y-o-y) contraction of real GDP since 2010. The mass protest movement that spurred early elections has largely subsided, though demonstrations are ongoing and anti-government sentiment remains pervasive. While a measured rebound in consumer and business sentiment should take hold in the remainder of H213 and build momentum behind economic activity heading into 2014, lingering unrest and uncertainty will contribute to subdued headline GDP growth readings for several more quarters.

A slowdown in domestic economic activity and foreign capital inflows is expediting a rebalancing of Bulgaria's external accounts, with the current account set to post a surplus of 0.4% of and 0.7% of GDP in 2013 and 2014 respectively, before narrowing gradually over the long term. Although we caution that a return to deficit could materialise in coming years as domestic demand growth accelerates and cross-border investment flows pick up, the limited potential for sizeable financial account surpluses implies that any future current account shortfalls will remain at relatively low levels. This will preclude a return to the massive external imbalances seen before the onset of the global financial crisis.

While 2014 is not set to be a remarkable year for Bulgaria's freight industry, the large contractions in growth that peppered the latter years of the '00s and the early '10s look to be a thing of the past, which is welcome news going into the midterm.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Bulgaria's Freight Transport Industry SWOT
7
Bulgaria Political SWOT
8
Bulgaria Economic SWOT
9
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
9
Industry Trends And Developments
10
Rail Freight
10
Road Freight
11
Air
12
Inland Waterway
12
Maritime Freight
14
Market Overview
15
Industry Forecast
20
Table: Road Freight, 2010-2017
21
Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
22
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2010-2017
23
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
24
Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
25
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
25
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
26
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
27
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
27
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
28
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016
29
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
33
Political Outlook
38
Domestic Politics
38
Long-Term Political Outlook
39
Macroeconomic Outlook
42
Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
44
Company Profiles
45
BDZ Cargo
45
DB Schenker Bulgaria
47
Bulgaria Demographic Outlook
49
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
50
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
51
Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
52
Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
52
BMI Methodology
53
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
53
Transport Industry
53
Sources
54

The Bulgaria Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Bulgaria Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc