Business Monitor International


Bulgaria Freight Transport Report

Published 08 January 2013

  • 55 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Free related articles sent monthly
 
$1,295.00
Bulgaria Freight Transport Report

BMI View: Political instability in Bulgaria will continue to stifle private consumption and investment, weighing on headline growth through 2014 and proving detrimental to the country ' s freight industry. Despite government expenditures and a positive contribution from net exports propping up economic activity, real GDP growth will reach just 0.5% and 1.5% in 2013 and 2014 respectively.

The effect of political instability in Bulgaria is evident in Q2 2013 data, with weak investment and private consumption leading to the first year-on-year (y-o-y) contraction of real GDP since 2010. The mass protest movement that spurred early elections has largely subsided, though demonstrations are ongoing and anti-government sentiment remains pervasive. While a measured rebound in consumer and business sentiment should take hold in the remainder of H213 and build momentum behind economic activity heading into 2014, lingering unrest and uncertainty will contribute to subdued headline GDP growth readings for several more quarters.

A slowdown in domestic economic activity and foreign capital inflows is expediting a rebalancing of Bulgaria's external accounts, with the current account set to post a surplus of 0.4% of and 0.7% of GDP in 2013 and 2014 respectively, before narrowing gradually over the long term. Although we caution that a return to deficit could materialise in coming years as domestic demand growth accelerates and cross-border investment flows pick up, the limited potential for sizeable financial account surpluses implies that any future current account shortfalls will remain at relatively low levels. This will preclude a return to the massive external imbalances seen before the onset of the global financial crisis.

While 2014 is not set to be a remarkable year for Bulgaria's freight industry, the large contractions in growth that peppered the latter years of the '00s and the early '10s look to be a thing of the past, which is welcome news going into the midterm.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Table: Road Freight, 2011-2018
15
Table: Rail Freight, 2011-2018
16
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2011-2018
16
Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018
17
Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018
17
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
18
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
18
Table: TOP IMPORT DESTINATIONS, 2004-2011, US$mn
19
Table: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, 2004-2011, US$mn
20
Market Overview
21
Industry Trends And Developments
27
Company Profile
34
BDZ Cargo
34
DB Schenker Bulgaria
36
Navibulgar
38
Political Outlook
40
Political Risk Analysis
40
Long-Term Political Outlook
41
Table: Bulgaria Politics Table
46
Oil Price Outlook
48
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
48
Methodology
48
Crude Price Forecasts
48
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$
Variance Across Product Markets
49
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
52
Weak Demand Persists
53
Risks To Outlook
54
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$
Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
55
Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand
59
Gasoline And Gasoil
Gasoline And Gasoil
Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement
63
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
65
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
65
Macroeconomic Forecasts
69
Economic Activity
69
Table: Bulgaria - GDP By Expenditure
74
Demographic Forecast
76
Demographic Outlook
76
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
77
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
78
Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
79
Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
79
Methodology
80
Industry Forecast Methodology
80
Sector-Specific Methodology
81
Sources
82

The Bulgaria Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Bulgaria Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc