Business Monitor International


Brazil Shipping Report

Published 01 December 2014

  • 115 pages
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$1,295.00
Brazil Shipping Report

We predict steady growth in Brazil's shipping sector over our forecast period, although we will not see a return to the double digit growth seen in 2010 and 2011. Our more moderated view of growth in the country's ports is on the back of a cautious economic outlook for the country. Brazil will remain mired in a period of low growth in the coming years, due to a slowing consumer story, persistent business environment challenges, and a weaker external environment. A more substantial contraction in real GDP in Q214 than we anticipated has prompted us to revise down 2015 headline growth forecast.

We have grown increasingly pessimistic on Brazil's economic outlook, revising down our 2015 forecast to 1.5% from 2.1%, following a weak Q214 growth print. Real GDP contracted by 0.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the second quarter - weaker than our expectations and Bloomberg survey estimates of -0.6% y-o-y - on the back of an 11.2% y-o-y contraction in real fixed investment. Real GDP growth will head gradually higher in the coming quarters as private consumption gets a modest boost from falling interest rates, and base effects bolster fixed investment growth. However, Brazil's economy will continue to struggle in the face of sluggish private consumption, a weak business environment and slowing demand for Chinese metals.

Nevertheless, growth forecasts for Brazil's shipping industry are set to be steady this year. In box throughput terms at the port of Santos, we anticipate y-o-y gains of 7%, while the tonnage picture is similar with annual growth of 6.00%. The port of Itajaí is poised to perform well too with tonnage throughput of 7.2% pencilled in for 2015 and box throughput of 6.4%.

Key Industry Forecasts

  • Total tonnage throughput at the port of Santos to grow 6.00% in 2015 to reach 130.6mn tonnes.

  • Container throughput at Santos to grow 7% to reach 3.97mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2015.

  • Total tonnage throughput at the port of Itajaí to increase 7.2% in...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Shipping
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Port Of Itaja- Throughput
15
Port Of Santos Throughput
19
Table: Major Ports Data (Brazil 2011-2018)
23
Table: Trade Overview (Brazil 2011-2018)
25
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Brazil 2011-2018)
26
Table: Brazil's Top Import Sources, 2004-2012 (USDmn)
27
Table: Brazil's Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012 (USDmn)
28
Market Overview
29
Brazil Container Shipping Market Overview
29
Industry Trends And Developments
37
Company Profile
44
Alian-a Navega--o e Log-stica
44
Shipping - Global Industry View
47
Container Demand:
47
Container Supply:
54
Container Rates:
60
Global Company Strategy
64
Maersk Line
64
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
77
CMA CGM
82
Evergreen Line
92
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
99
Macroeconomic Forecasts
106
Table: Brazil - Economic Activity
111
Demographic Forecast
112
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
113
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
114
Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
115
Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
115

The Brazil Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Brazil.

BMI's Brazil Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Brazil.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazilian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Brazil through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc