Business Monitor International


Brazil Shipping Report

Published 03 September 2014

  • 115 pages
 
$1,295.00
Brazil Shipping Report

Brazil's weak Q114 GDP print helps confirm our view that the economy will continue to see tepid growth in the coming years as the consumption story dims and investment has yet to pick up meaningfully. We have downgraded our headline real GDP growth forecasts for 2014 and 2015 to 1.8% and 2.2% respectively, primarily owing to a weakening outlook for fixed investment.

Weakening investment and private consumption growth in Brazil's Q114 GDP release highlight the continued challenges facing the economy, and inform our view that slow growth is here to stay for several years. We have downgraded our 2014 and 2015 headline real GDP growth forecasts to 1.8% and 2.2% respectively, from 2.0% and 2.4%. This implies that growth will remain broadly in line with the headline print for Q114, which came in at 1.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), in the next few quarters.

Growth forecasts for Brazil's shipping industry are set to be impressive for 2014. In box throughput terms at the Port of Santos, we anticipate y-o-y gains of almost double figures (9.50%), while the tonnage picture is similar with annual growth of 9.00%. The port of Itajaí is poised to perform even better, with tonnage throughput of 13.00% pencilled in for 2014 and box throughput of a slightly lower 9.00%.

Key Industry Forecasts

  • Total tonnage throughput at the Port of Santos to grow 9.00% in 2014 to reach 124.35mn tonnes.

  • Container throughput at Santos to grow 9.50% to reach 3.78mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2014.

  • Total tonnage throughput at the Port of Itajaí to increase 13.00% in 2014 to reach 14.25mn tonnes.

  • Container throughput at the port of Itajaí to grow 9.00% to reach 1.20mn TEUs in 2014.

Key Industry Trends

Robust Medium-Term Growth At Santos: The port of Santos in Brazil is forecast to see robust growth in both total tonnage and box throughput this year - an expansion in volumes BMI believes will continue to play out over our medium-term throughput forecast to 2018. Downside risks...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Shipping
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Port Of Itaja- Throughput
15
Port Of Santos Throughput
19
Table: Major Ports Data (Brazil 2011-2018)
23
Table: Trade Overview (Brazil 2011-2018)
25
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Brazil 2011-2018)
26
Table: Brazil's Top Import Sources, 2004-2012 (USDmn)
27
Table: Brazil's Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012 (USDmn)
28
Market Overview
29
Brazil Container Shipping Market Overview
29
Industry Trends And Developments
37
Company Profile
44
Alian-a Navega--o e Log-stica
44
Shipping - Global Industry View
47
Container Demand:
47
Container Supply:
54
Container Rates:
60
Global Company Strategy
64
Maersk Line
64
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
77
CMA CGM
82
Evergreen Line
92
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
99
Macroeconomic Forecasts
106
Table: Brazil - Economic Activity
111
Demographic Forecast
112
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
113
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
114
Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
115
Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
115

The Brazil Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Brazil.

BMI's Brazil Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Brazil.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazilian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Brazil through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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