Business Monitor International

Brazil Renewables Report

Published 14 May 2014

  • 37 pages
Brazil Renewables Report

BMI View : We are maintaining our forecasts for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in Brazil this quarter as our assumptions for the sector remain relevant. While there were a number of major developments in the sector over the second quarter of 2014, these developments are not likely to impact our near-term forecasts. We do see several risks to our long-term outlook, such as further delays to wind projects and increases in hydrocarbon production and hydropower generation.

We are maintaining our 2014 forecasts for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in Brazil this quarter as our assumptions for the sector remain relevant. While there were a number of major developments in the sector over the second quarter of 2014, these developments are not likely to have any foreseeable impact on our forecasts over the near-term.

We have also maintained our long-term forecasts for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in Brazil in Q314. We are forecasting non-hydropower renewable energy generation to grow an average of 6.8% per annum between 2014 and 2023. This will be primarily driven by growth in wind and biomass capacity.

Here are the key trends and regulatory changes in the industry:

  • The government has changed how it gauges capacity based on how much electricity can be guaranteed to be generated 90% of the time (versus 50% of the time under previous auctions).

  • In March, wind energy developer Renova Energia was forced to postpone the launch of six of its wind farms with a combined capacity of 153MW as the federal utility Chesf had not completed construction of the substation.

  • The Brazilian energy agency Empresa de Pesquisa Energética announced that it had designed a special contract for solar photovoltaic projects for the reserve energy tender (A5) to be held later in 2014. This new contract takes the deterioration of the equipment over time into account, which is likely to be positive for investors.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Brazil Renewables Forecast Scenario
Table: Brazil Total Electricity Generation, Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: Brazil Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
Table: Brazil Electricity Generating Capacity Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: Brazil Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
Brazil Renewables Projects Database
Table: Brazil Key Projects - Renewables
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Brazil Renewables Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure
Targets (Renewables And Emissions)
Competitive Landscape
Tractebel Energia
Vestas Wind Systems A/S
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
Table: Weighting Indicators

The Brazil Renewables Report researched at source contains Business Monitor International (BMI)'s assessment of the current renewables market in Brazil. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2017 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).

The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Brazil, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.

The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Brazil, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.

BMI's Brazil Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazil renewables industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazil renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Brazil, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.

These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.

Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.

These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Renewables Business Environment Ratings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Ratings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.

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