BMI View : We are maintaining our 2014 forecasts for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in Brazil , as we had accounted for potential delays in a number of wind projects and our assumptions remain relevant. We have also maintained our long-term forecasts for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in Brazil, and our sanguine outlook is underpinned by the positive economic and regulatory conditions. That said, we do see several risks to our outlook, such as further delays to wind projects and increases in hydrocarbon production and hydropower generation.
We are maintaining our 2014 forecasts for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in Brazil this quarter. This is because we had taken into account potential delays in a number of wind projects scheduled for completion in 2013 and 2014 in our previous analysis of the sector ( see 'Brazil Renewables: Moderations To Wind, Mixed Overall', October 23 2013), and our assumptions remain relevant.
We have also maintained our long-term forecasts for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in Brazil this quarter. In particular, we forecast non-hydropower renewable energy generation to grow an average of 6.8% per annum between 2014 and 2023, driven primarily by wind and biomass energy.
Here are the key trends and regulatory changes in the industry:
The country's minister for mines and energy said that the nation would install 36GW of hydropower, 12GW of biomass and 11GW of wind capacity over the next 10 years.
Transmission infrastructure in the country continues to suffer from a lack of capacity improvements. Complaints have emerged from the wind industry as necessary transmission lines are behind schedule, efforts are being duplicated and licensing issues are slowing progress.
The government has changed how it gauges capacity based on how much electricity can be guaranteed to be generated 90% of the time (versus 50% of the time under previous auctions).
The Brazil Renewables Report researched at source contains Business Monitor International (BMI)'s assessment of the current renewables market in Brazil. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2017 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Brazil, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Brazil, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Brazil Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazil renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazil renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Brazil, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Ratings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Ratings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.