Business Monitor International


Brazil Power Report

Published 18 September 2014

  • 74 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Brazil Power Report

BMI View: Brazil continues to be one of the most attractive power markets in Latin America, due to its unmatched size, strong project pipeline and large prospective in the renewables and natural-gas fuelled thermal sectors. However, the country ' s power sector potential is hindered by regulatory and legal interjections, weak infrastructure and a heavy depend ence on increasingly unreliable hydroelectricity. Higher retail electricity prices and a slowing GDP expansion are the main risks to an otherwise robust power consumption growth forecast.

Recent investment into new power and renewables capacity in Brazil has been at its strongest rate in years - with over 7GW of new capacity contracted in 2013 and expected to come online over the next three years. The first auction in 2014 for new capacity secured almost 1GW, while the A-5 and Reserve Auction saw 50,900MW and 26,297MW of submitted capacity respectively. Depending on the technology of the projects actually awarded in these auctions in September and October 2014, we will be able to evaluate how much Brazil will succeed in diversifying its power mix, which is currently overly dependent on intermittent hydropower and wind.

We estimate total generation in 2014 will be nearly 588 terawatt hours (TWh). Moreover, we forecast that this will increase to 691TWh by 2018 and to 819TWh by the end of our forecast period in 2023. This equates to an annual average growth rate of 3.69% between 2014 and 2023. In light of an expanding population and the investments for the 2016 Olympic Games, we anticipate power demand in Brazil to remain robust, with growth in consumption expected to average 3.92% between 2014 and 2023. We forecast that net consumption will climb from an estimated 516.36TWh in 2014 to 739.17TWh in 2023, but we also highlight that the perspective of higher retail electricity tariffs and a slowdown in economic expansion represent sizeable risks to our outlook.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Hydropower...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Brazil Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2018-2023)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Brazil Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2017)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2018-2023)
13
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2017)
15
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2018-2023)
15
Electricity Consumption
23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2017)
23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2018-2023)
23
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2017)
25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2018-2023)
25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2017)
25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2018-2023)
25
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings, (Scores Out Of 100)
35
Brazil Power Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Rewards
36
Risks
37
Market Overview
38
Key Policies And Market Structure
38
Regulation And Competition
38
Sustainable Energy Policies
41
Pricing
42
Brazil Power Projects Database
43
Table: Brazil Major Projects - Power
43
Competitive Landscape
53
Operador Nacional do Sistema El-trico (ONS)
53
Eletrobr-s
54
Tractebel Energia
54
Company Profile
55
Eletrobr-s
55
Regional Overview
58
Glossary
65
Table: Glossary Of Terms
65
Methodology
66
Industry Forecast Methodology
66
Sources
69
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
69
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
70
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
72

The Brazil Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Brazil Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Brazil's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc