Business Monitor International


Brazil Power Report

Published 18 February 2014

  • 74 pages
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$1,295.00
Brazil Power Report

BMI View: We are maintaining our 2014 forecasts and long-term forecasts for power generation in Brazil, as ou r assumptions remain relevant. Hydroelectric power accounts for, and will continue to account for, the key source of power supply in Brazil. Representing 78.89 % of electricity generating capacity of the country , hydroelectricity remain s unreliable - with generating capacity fluctuating between wet and dry years and controversial - with stoppages commonplace - as illustrated by recent court rulings . In addition, m any of Brazil's rivers are far from populated cities, adding expense to projects as lengthy transmission networks are required. It is of little surprise, then, that the government is seeking to diversify the electricity mix. That said, we believe that although the share of hydropower in the en e rgy mix will decline by the end of our forecast scenario, it will be continue to be the dominant fuel for electricity generation of the country.

With Brazil facing a key power deadline - the country will host both the FIFA World Cup and the Olympic Games in the next three years - the government is keen to invest in its power sector to ensure that its electricity sector is up to the challenge of being under a global spotlight. It has launched a series of tenders for power auctions during 2013, and will finish the year with six hydroelectric power projects, opening for bids in December. We stress, though, that the repeated delays to other hydroelectric power projects in the country may deter potential bidders - Brazil's complex bureaucratic processes will do little to attract investors.

We forecast Brazil's power sector will continue to post strong demand, even though some risks remain, with growth in consumption expected to average 3.79% between 2013 and 2023. . BMI estimates that total generation capacity in 2013 stood at 570.26 terawatt hours (TWh). We forecast that this will increase to 690.20TWh by 2018 and to 817.31TWh by...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Brazil Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Brazil Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Brazil Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts 2012-2017
12
Table: Brazil Total Electricity Generation Data And Long-Term Forecasts 2018-2023
13
Table: Brazil Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts 2012-2017
15
Table: Brazil Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Long-Term Forecasts 2018-2023
16
Electricity Consumption
27
Table: Brazil Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts 2012-2017
27
Table: Brazil Total Electricity Consumption Data And Long-Term Forecasts 2018-2023
27
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
29
Table: Brazil Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
29
Table: Brazil Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
29
Table: Brazil Trade Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
29
Table: Brazil Trade Data And Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
29
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings, (Scores Out Of 100)
38
Brazil Power Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Rewards
39
Risks
39
Market Overview
41
Key Policies And Market Structure
41
Regulation And Competition
41
Sustainable Energy Policies
44
Pricing
45
Brazil Power Projects Database
46
Table: Brazil Major Projects - Power
46
Competitive Landscape
53
Operador Nacional do Sistema El-trico (ONS)
53
Eletrobr-s
54
Tractebel Energia
54
Company Profile
56
Eletrobr-s
56
Regional Overview
60
Industry Trend Analysis
60
Glossary
67
Table: Glossary Of Terms
67
Methodology
68
Industry Forecast Methodology
68
Sources
71
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
71
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
72
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
74

The Brazil Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Brazil Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Brazil's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Ratings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc