Business Monitor International


Brazil Power Report

Published 18 November 2014

  • 74 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Brazil Power Report

BMI View:   Brazil 's power sector continues to offer significant investment opportunities due to its unmatched size, government's commitment to power capacity expansion and large prospective in renewables and natural gas-fired thermal sectors. However, the country 's potential is hindered by its   continued depend ence on unreliable hydroelectricity , weak infrastructure and regulatory interjections. In addition, Brazil's darkening macroeconomic trajectory has weighed heavily on our forecast for long-term power consumptio n , with a possible increase   in retail electricity prices in 2015 posing additional downside risk .  

Brazil's power sector will continue to grow in the coming years - driven by government commitment to power supply expansion, power mix diversification needs and vast untapped potential for renewables and natural-gas fired power generation. We expect total power generation in the country to grow by an annual average rate of 2.09% over our 10-year forecast period, rising from 535TWh in 2014 to 698TWh in 2023. Power generating capacity will also grow steadily, expanding by 3.64% annually on average over the same period, primarily as a result of a strong pipeline of hydropower and wind projects.

Government's power auctions in 2014 have secured contracts for vast capacity additions in the coming years and we expect investor interest to remain strong in 2015. Nevertheless, we have downwardly revised our forecast for power consumption in the country over the next decade due to a deterioration of Brazil's macroeconomic perspective. We now forecast total power consumption to grow by annual average rate of 2.31% (it was 3.92% last quarter) between 2014 and 2023, expanding from 512TWh to 639TWh (a 15.6% decrease compared to our last forecast for 2023).

Key Trends And Developments

  • Hydropower will remain the dominant source of electricity in Brazil over the coming decade. The government plans to add more than 30GW between...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Brazil Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2013-2018)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2018-2023)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Brazil Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2017)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2018-2023)
14
Electricity Consumption
24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2017)
24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2018-2023)
24
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
26
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2017)
26
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2018-2023)
26
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2017)
26
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2018-2023)
26
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
35
Brazil Power Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Rewards
36
Risks
37
Market Overview
39
Key Policies And Market Structure
39
Regulation And Competition
39
Sustainable Energy Policies
41
Pricing
43
Brazil Power Projects Database
44
Table: Brazil Major Projects - Power
44
Competitive Landscape
53
Operador Nacional do Sistema El-trico (ONS)
53
Eletrobr-s
54
Tractebel Energia
54
Company Profile
55
Eletrobr-s
55
Regional Overview
58
Latin America Power Regional Overview
58
Glossary
64
Table: Glossary Of Terms
64
Methodology
65
Methodology And Sources
65
Industry Forecast Methodology
65
Sources
68
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
68
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
69
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
71

The Brazil Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Brazil Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Brazil's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc