Business Monitor International


Brazil Petrochemicals Report

Published 21 March 2014

  • 85 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Brazil Petrochemicals Report

Producers claimed they are seeing benefits, with an increase in capacity utilisation expected in the short term and an increase in investment in the medium term. While tax cuts on raw material purchases should help competitiveness, they will be insufficient to resolve bottlenecks in the sector, according to BMI's latest Brazil Petrochemicals Report .

Domestic demand for thermoplastic resins, based on apparent consumption recorded a significant increase of 10.9% y-o-y to 6.5mn tonnes in 2013, according to the Brazilian Chemical Industry Association (Abiquim). While growth was strongly pro-cyclical, it came after three years of stagnation; between 2010 and 2013, consumption rose just 3.6% per annum. In spite of efforts to improve competitiveness, petrochemicals plant utilisation was increased by just one percentage point in 2013 to 81% and production rose by just 2.9%. Exports declined 13.1% y-o-y in 2013, even though the real began to weaken against the US dollar. However, output growth was above the 1.6% forecast by BMI as production began to climb towards the end of the year.

  • In the medium-term, the focus will be on the capacities planned for Comperj, which is set to begin operations in 2018. Capacities will include 1.2mn tpa of ethylene and 880,000tpa propylene capacity feeding units with capacities of 800,000tpa of polyethylene, 850,000tpa polypropylene and 600,000tpa of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) as well as a range of other derivatives. However, BMI cautions that the configurations could be changed when Braskem confirms the project in 2014, with the possibility of scaling back should projected costs of feedstock and market trends fail to justify some operations.

  • BMI projects a rise in Brazilian petrochemicals consumption of 5% in 2014, up from 3% forecast in previous quarter due to improved economic fundamentals going forward. The strengthening trend will be assisted by the restocking trend in the chain, the strong inflow of imported resins...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Brazil Petrochemicals Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts
16
Macroeconomic Forecasts
17
Economic Analysis
17
Table: Brazil - Economic Activity
23
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Divergence: Large Markets Take The Lead
24
Table: Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
27
Brazil Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Market Overview
29
Industry Trends And Developments
32
Foreign Ventures
35
Bioplastics
36
Company Profile
37
Braskem
37
Table: Braskem Financial Results - BRLmn
40
Petr-leo Brasileiro (Petrobras)
41
Regional Overview
46
Americas Overview
46
Table: Planned PE Projects In North America, 2014-2019
48
Latin American Supply Lags Behind Demand
50
Naptha Worries
52
Global Industry Overview
54
A Stable 2013, Leading To Growth In 2014-
54
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
56
Long-Term Growth
56
Shale: The Future Of Feedstock-
58
Threats To growth
61
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
61
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
61
Methodology
64
Crude Price Forecasts
65
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
65
Oil Product Price Forecasts
65
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
66
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
67
Weak Demand Persists
68
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
69
Quarterly Prices
73
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
73
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
74
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
76
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
82
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
84
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
84
Risks To Outlook
86
Demographic Forecast
87
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
88
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
89
Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
90
Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
90
Glossary
91
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
91
Methodology
92
Industry Forecast Methodology
92
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
94
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
95
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
96

The Brazil Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Brazil Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Brazilian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc