Business Monitor International


Brazil Petrochemicals Report

Published 06 October 2014

  • 85 pages
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$1,295.00
Brazil Petrochemicals Report

The Brazilian chemicals industry continues to lose competitiveness due to its dependence on high cost feedstocks and the effects of water shortages and electricity black-outs, according to BMI's latest Brazil Petrochemicals Report.

In H114, the Brazilian petrochemicals industry saw a negative performance in all polymer segments. Domestic production of thermoplastic resins dropped by 5.2% y-o-y and the capacity utilisation rate was down three percentage points compared to H113 to 78%. In the 12 months to end-June 2014, production fell 2% on the back of a 5.5% fall in exports and 7.5% growth in imports.

Polymers consumption fell 3.1% y-o-y in H114. In view of the market contraction in H114 and faltering economic recovery, with our GDP growth forecast revised from 2.0% to 1.8%, we now envisage a contraction in the petrochemicals market in 2014, a revision from the zero growth forecast in the previous quarter. Further monetary tightening, significant exchange rate weakness and ongoing project delays in the infrastructure sector will negatively impact on consumption. The situation for basic chemicals is compounded by a strong inflow of imported resins benefitting from tax incentives.

Exports declined 9.1% y-o-y in the first half, although imports stayed stable with growth of 0.3%. The near-zero growth rate in imports includes a 15.1% y-o-y decline in PVC imports that accompanied growth in domestic output and reduced demand. All other resins exhibited increased imports, especially polyethylene, which rose 7.7% y-o-y and polypropylene, with a rise of 15.5%. As a result, there was deterioration in the polymers trade deficit from 390,000 tonnes to 440,000 tonnes, an increase in volume of 12.8% y-o-y. In the 12 months to end-June 2014, the polymers trade deficit by volume grew 36.7% y-o-y. The situation has been exacerbated by a decline in trade with Argentina, one of Brazil's principal export markets, as well as lack of competitiveness.

We expect that further...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Brazil Petrochemicals Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts
18
Macroeconomic Forecasts
19
Economic Analysis
19
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Brazil 2011-2018)
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Brazil Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Market Overview
26
Industry Trends And Developments
29
Foreign Ventures
32
Financial Results
33
Bioplastics
34
Company Profile
35
Braskem
35
Table: Braskem Financial Results - BRLmn
38
Petr-leo Brasileiro (Petrobras)
39
Regional Overview
43
Americas Overview
43
Table: Planned PE Projects In North America, 2014-2019
46
Latin American Supply Lags Behind Demand
46
Global Industry Overview
50
Polymers Markets
52
Polymers Capacities
53
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
54
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
54
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
55
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
56
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
56
Gasoline: Crude Supporting Price
59
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
59
Political Risk Sends Prices Soaring
59
Upward Price Revision
61
Europe And The US:
61
Singapore: Strong Upside For Q314
63
Risks To Outlook
64
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
65
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
65
Supply Keeps Market Down
65
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
67
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
68
Risks To Outlook
71
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
72
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
72
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
77
Risks To Outlook
78
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
79
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
79
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
81
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
85
Risks To Outlook
86
Demographic Forecast
88
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
89
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
90
Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
91
Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
91
Glossary
92
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
92
Methodology
93
Industry Forecast Methodology
93
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
95
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
96
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
97

The Brazil Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Brazil Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Brazilian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc