Business Monitor International


Brazil Oil & Gas Report

Published 01 April 2014

  • 143 pages
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$1,295.00
Brazil Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Brazil's massive pre-salt fields, such as Lula, Iracema and Buzios , suggest substantial growth potential over the long term, underpinning our view that crude, natural gas and other liquids output will rise from an estimated 2. 1 mn b/d in 2013 to 3 . 6 mn barrels per day (b/d) by 202 3 . That said, this is a modest downward revision from previous quarters, reflecting our view that the above-ground environment remains a considerable obstacle to both the country's upstream and downstream sectors. Indeed, muted interest in the country's first pre-salt round, such that there was ultimately only one consortium that bid, underscores the potential impact of Brazil's unfavourable licensing terms and burdensome regulatory environment. Meanwhile, following the volte-face by the government on a new fuel pricing mechanism, imported fuel costs will likely continue to act as a significant burden on state-owned Petrobras' already weak financial position.

The key trends and developments in the Brazilian oil and gas sector are:

  • We maintain our bullish long-term outlook for Brazil's crude production. While post-salt fields will support production in the short term, we believe that it will be pre-salt developments such as the massive Lula or Iracema fields that drive the country's long-term production potential. We expect oil production to keep growing throughout the forecast period, from 2.1mn b/d in 2013 to nearly 3.6mn b/d in 2023.

  • Our short-term view is more cautious for a variety of reasons, largely centring around problems of resource nationalism. First, the country's first pre-salt auction raised questions about Brazil's regulatory environment and the attractiveness of the contracts on offer. While the massive Libra field was ultimately successfully auctioned to a consortium of Shell, Total, PetroChina and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNC), interest was far below expectation. Indeed, only 11 companies agreed to pay the US$1mn fee required...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Brazil Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data
11
Table: Brazil Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data
12
Table: Breakdown Of Onshore Reserves
14
Table: Breakdown of Offshore Reserves
14
Oil Supply And Demand
16
Table: Brazil Oil Production And Net Exports
16
Table: Brazil Oil Production And Net Exports
17
Table: List Of Upcoming And Recently Completed FPSO Conversion/Construction Projects (Non-Exhaustive)
21
Refining And Oil Products Consumption & Trade
22
Table: Brazil Refining - Production And Consumption
22
Table: Brazil Refining - Production And Consumption
23
Gas Supply And Demand
27
Table: Brazil Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports
27
Table: Brazil Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
37
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
43
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Brazil - Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Market Overview
46
Brazil Energy Market Overview
46
Table: Brazil - Upstream Projects Database
46
Overview/State Role
49
Licensing Rounds
51
International Energy Relations
54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
55
Oil Refineries
55
Table: Refineries In Brazil
55
Service Stations
62
Oil Terminals/Ports
62
Oil Pipelines
62
LNG Terminals
62
Gas Pipelines
63
Competitive Landscape
65
Summary
65
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Oil And Gas Sector
67
Company Profile
68
Petr-leo Brasileiro
68
Shell Brasil
77
Repsol
82
Esso Brasileira de Petr-leo
86
Chevron Brasil
87
Ultrapar Participa-es (Grupo Ultra)
90
BG do Brasil
94
BP Brasil
99
Statoil do Brasil
103
Oleo & Gas Participacoes/OGX Brazil
107
Other Summaries
110
Regional Overview
117
Latin America Overview
117
Global Industry Overview
125
Global Energy Market Overview
125
Appendix
133
Latin America - Regional Appendix
133
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
133
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
134
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
134
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
135
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
136
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
136
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
137
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
137
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
138
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
139
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
139
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
140
Brazil - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
141
Table: Brazil Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
141
Table: Brazil Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
142
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
143
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
144
Table: Brazil Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports 2012-2017, Net Exports Breakdown
145
Table: Brazil Refined Petroleum Products Net Exports, 2018-2023
146
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2012-2017
147
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
148
Glossary
149
Table: Glossary Of Terms
149
Methodology
151
Industry Forecast Methodology
151
Source
153
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
153
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
155
Table: Weighting
156

The Brazil Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Brazil including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Brazil Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Brazil to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazilian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc