Business Monitor International


Brazil Oil & Gas Report

Published 12 December 2014

  • 143 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Brazil Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Brazil's vast pre-salt reserv es suggest sub stantial growth potent ial over the long-term, underpinning our bullish upstream view that crude, natural gas, and other liquids output will rise throughout our forecast period. In the near-term, we hold a more bearish view , as mandated fuel subsidies will propel continued consumption growth, increasing imported fuel cost s o n state-owned Petrobras' strapped finances . As such, despite tremendous below-ground potential, we maintain a relatively modest outlook, reflecting our view that the above-ground environment remains a considerable obstacle to the upstream and downstream segments due to unfavourable licensing terms and a burdensome regulatory environment.

Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2018)
2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,149.0 2,114.1 2,276.9 2,398.1 2,571.9 2,796.0 3,040.1
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,915.9 2,050.0 2,152.5 2,217.0 2,305.7 2,398.0 2,529.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 3,373.0 3,477.8 3,540.2 3,588.8 3,640.5 3,693.5 3,750.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 16.9 21.3 22.1 23.0 24.4 26.4 28.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 30.3 37.6 41.4 43.2 45.2 47.2 49.3
Note: e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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The key trends and developments in the Brazilian oil and gas sector are:

  • We maintain our bullish long-term outlook for Brazil's crude production. While post-salt fields will support production in the short-term, we believe forthcoming pre-salt developments will propel production growth an average of 6.4% per year over the next 10 years.

  • Our short-term view is more cautious due to Brazil's adamant resource nationalism as seen during the highly-anticipated pre-salt auction in October 2013, where...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil and Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Brazil 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Brazil 2018-2023)
11
Table: Breakdown Of Onshore Reserves
13
Table: Breakdown of Offshore Reserves
13
Upstream Projects
15
Table: Brazil Major Upstream Projects
15
Upstream Production - Oil
20
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2012-2017)
20
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2018-2023)
20
Table: List Of Upcoming And Recently Completed FPSO Conversion/Construction Projects (Non-Exhaustive)
24
Upstream Production - Gas
26
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2012-2017)
26
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2018-2023)
26
Refining
29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2012-2017)
29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2018-2023)
29
Refined Fuels Consumption
34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Brazil 2012-2017)
34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Brazil 2018-2023)
34
Gas Consumption
35
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2012-2017)
36
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2018-2023)
36
Trade - Oil
38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2012-2017)
38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2018-2023)
38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2012-2017)
40
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2018-2023)
40
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Brazil 2012-2017)
41
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Brazil 2018-2023)
42
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
43
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2012-2017)
43
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2018-2023)
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
46
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
48
Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
48
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
54
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
54
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
56
Brazil - Risk/Reward Ratings
56
Market Overview
58
Brazil Energy Market Overview
58
Table: Brazil - Upstream Projects Database
58
Overview/State Role
61
Licensing Rounds
63
International Energy Relations
66
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
67
Oil Refineries
67
Table: Refineries In Brazil
67
Service Stations
75
Oil Terminals/Ports
75
Oil Pipelines
75
LNG Terminals
75
Gas Pipelines
76
Competitive Landscape
78
Summary
78
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Oil And Gas Sector
80
Company Profile
81
Petr-leo Brasileiro
81
Shell Brasil
90
Repsol
95
Esso Brasileira de Petr-leo
99
Chevron Brasil
100
Ultrapar Participa-es (Grupo Ultra)
103
BG do Brasil
107
BP Brasil
112
Statoil do Brasil
116
Oleo & Gas Participacoes/OGX Brazil
120
Other Summaries
122
Regional Overview
128
Latin America Overview
128
Global Industry Overview
137
Global Energy Market Overview
137
Appendix
143
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
143
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
143
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
144
Latin America - Regional Appendix
146
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
146
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
147
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
147
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
148
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
149
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
149
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
150
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
150
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
151
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
152
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
152
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
153
Brazil - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
154
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Brazil 2012-2017)
154
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Brazil 2018-2023)
155
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Brazil 2012-2017)
156
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Brazil 2018-2023)
157
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Brazil 2012-2017)
158
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Brazil 2018-2023)
159
Brazil - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
160
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Brazil 2012-2017)
160
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Brazil 2018-2023)
160
Glossary
162
Table: Glossary Of Terms
162
Methodology
164
Industry Forecast Methodology
164
Source
166
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
166
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
168
Table: Weighting
169

The Brazil Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Brazil including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Brazil Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Brazil to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazilian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc