Business Monitor International


Brazil Metals Report

Published 03 October 2014

  • 61 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Brazil Metals Report

BMI View: R efined metal production and consumption in Brazil will see accelerating growth in the years ahead on the back of expansion in Brazil's automotive, construction, and infrastructure sectors. However, the coming quarters will remain challenging owing to weak economic growth marked by subdued private consumption and fixed-asset investment.

Stronger Sector Performance In Latter Half Of Decade

We expect metals consumption and production to face headwinds in the coming quarters on account of modest economic growth ( see '  Slow Growth Here To Stay ,' September 9). We forecast real GDP growth of just 0.7% in 2014 and 1.5% in 2015 on the back of sluggish private consumption, subdued fixed asset investment, and a weak business environment. Moreover, electricity costs remain elevated, raising costs for the energy-intensive metals industry. Nevertheless, our multi-year outlook towards Brazilian economic growth is more constructive, as we forecast solid growth in the automotive, construction, and infrastructure sectors. We therefore expect metals demand, and hence production, to accelerate in the latter half of the decade.

Stronger Industry Prospects Beyond 2015
Brazil - Real GDP & Fixed Capital Formation (% chg y-o-y)

The majority of Brazilian metals production will be consumed within the country, providing an opportunity for companies to increase revenues and profits in the domestic market in the years ahead as economic growth improves. We expect domestic aluminium and copper demand to exceed production, in contrast to steel, which will see production levels exceed consumption.

While firms will be able to take advantage of stronger economic fundamentals on one hand, they will also face constraints from Brazil's complex tax and regulatory environment on the other. The latter will add to production costs and put pressure on margins. Lower import duties on certain metal products, after higher rates in previous years, will also weigh on domestic producers....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Stronger Sector Performance In Latter Half Of Decade
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: Consumption And Production To Grow At Moderate Pace
11
Consumption Facing Multi-Quarter Weakness
11
Production To Exceed Domestic Demand
13
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Brazil 2010-2018)
14
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Brazil 2005-2012)
14
Aluminium: Production To Face Multi-Quarter Headwinds
16
Electricity Prices To Reduce Production
16
Consumption Growth To Outpace Production
18
Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Brazil 2010-2018)
19
Copper: Stronger Growth In Years Ahead
20
Consumption To Outpace Production Capacity
21
Table: Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance (Brazil 2010-2018)
21
Regulatory Development
22
Tax Regime
22
Corruption To Persist
23
Table: Brazil - Political Overview
23
Commodities Forecast
25
Commodity Strategy
25
Ferrous Metals:
25
Non-Ferrous Metals:
29
Aluminium: Prices To Remain Elevated Following Recent Dip
29
Copper: Chinese Weakness To Create Further Headwinds
30
Nickel: No Sustained Rally Ahead
32
Zinc: Subdued Short-Term Outlook Before Multi-Year Gains
35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
36
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016
37
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
37
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
37
Long-Term Outlook
38
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite
39
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon
40
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last
41
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery
42
Risks To Price Forecast
42
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
43
Competitive Landscape
44
Table: Financial Data For Key Metals Firms Listed In Brazil
44
Energy Costs To Prove Problematic
44
Company Profile
46
Gerdau
46
Latest Financial Results
47
Table: Gerdau - Key Financial Data
48
Cia Sider-rgica Nacional
49
Latest Financial Results
51
Table: CSN - Key Financial Data
51
Vale
52
Company Overview
54
Company Strategy
55
Latest Results
56
Table: Vale - Supply Chain Analysis
57
Table: Vale - Key Financial Data
57
Company Details
58
Methodology
59
Cross Checks
59

The Brazil Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Brazil.

BMI's Brazil Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Brazil.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazil metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Brazil through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc