BMI View: We maintain our expectation that growth will pick up in Brazil's construction industry in 2014, with 4.1% growth expected . Off the back of a ramp - up in concessions awarded, which are expected to break ground in 2014, last minute World Cup preparations and pre-election spending, construction activity and by extension industry value creation, should increase over the near term. However, we remain concerned about longer - term prospects for a sustainable sector, given the still glaring fundamental business environment obstacles.
Even with construction costs moving negative, Brazil's construction industry has continues to post weak growth since 2011. Despite the second growth acceleration programme running since 2010, a US$235bn concessions programme and investment into 2014 FIFA World Cup infrastructure, growth has remained persistently low.
The bottleneck appears to be on the public sector side, with institutional inefficiencies preventing projects moving forward, while constant changes to the regulatory environment seems to delay tendering from moving forward. However, despite a shaky start, the country's concessions programme gathered pace in Q413, with a number of highway projects, the second batch of airports and four power auctions securing an estimated BRL80bn (US$33.75bn) in investment. We therefore expect an acceleration in construction activity, as projects break ground in 2014, and this should drive our expected uptick in industry value.
Residential construction rebound
Despite continued growth in the housing market over 2012, with house prices and mortgage applications reporting strong expansion, the construction of new residential properties stagnated. Housing starts fell by 37% y-o-y in 2012. This trend has reversed in line with expectations during 2013, as homebuilders rebuild their balance sheets, improving cashflow and cost pressures ease, allowing them to focus again on subsidised mortgage housing. This end of the market is crucial...
The Brazil Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Brazil Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Brazilian infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, renewable projects, pipelines and so on).
Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport, utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:
Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments, including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.
Building Materials Overview
The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data point.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).
Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways, airports, roads and bridges, ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and water infrastructure).
Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.