Business Monitor International


Brazil Freight Transport Report

Published 17 June 2014

  • 102 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Brazil Freight Transport Report

We anticipate that growth in Brazil's freight transport volumes will outperform the Latin American giant's real GDP growth in 2014 and over our medium-term forecast period (2014-2018), across all modes. Continued growth in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nation's mining and agribusiness sectors will ensure that the road, rail and ports sectors will continue to experience healthy expansion, while air freight will benefit from the growing demands of the country's expanding middle class. Further, the sector will benefit from Brazil's role as a major exporter of a host of commodities.

Nevertheless, there remain serious challenges to growth, and hence risks to our outlook. These stem from both the physical side - whether infrastructure development in the country will be sufficient to support our projected growth rates; and the human - the ports sector is already undergoing a wave of industrial unrest as workers contest the government's proposed ports privatisation moves.

We believe that Brazil's wider economic recovery will falter this year and thus are revising down our GDP growth forecasts. We have downgraded our 2014 and 2015 headline real GDP growth forecasts to 1.8% and 2.2% respectively, from 2.0% and 2.4%. This implies that growth will remain broadly in line with the headline print for Q114, which came in at 1.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), in the next few quarters. Weakening investment and private consumption growth in Brazil's Q114 GDP release highlight the continued challenges facing the economy, and inform our view that slow growth is here to stay for several years.

Key Industry Data

  • Air freight tonnes to grow 5.4% in 2014 to reach 1.81mn tonnes. Over the medium term, to 2018, we predict that growth will average 6.5% a year.

  • Total tonnage throughput at the port of Santos to grow 9.0% in 2014 to reach 124.3mn tonnes. To 2018, we predict average annual growth of 6.2%.

  • Rail freight tonnes to grow by 1.8% in 2014 to reach 477mn tonnes. To 2018, we...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Rail
15
Table: Rail Freight (Brazil 2011-2018)
16
Road Freight
16
Air Freight
17
Table: Air Freight (Brazil 2011-2018)
18
Maritime Freight
18
Table: Maritime Freight (Brazil 2011-2018)
20
Trade
21
Table: Trade Overview (Brazil 2011-2018)
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Brazil 2011-2018)
21
Table: Main Import Partners, 2005-2012
22
Table: Main Export Destinations, 2005-2012
23
Market Overview
25
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Maritime Freight
30
Air Freight
32
Rail Freight
33
Multimodal/Logistics
34
Company Profile
35
LATAM Cargo
35
EcoRodovias
40
Santos Brasil Participa-es
43
Vale (Logistics)
47
Alian-a Navega--o e Log-stica
54
Political Outlook
57
Domestic Politics
57
Long-Term Political Outlook
62
Table: Political Overview
67
Oil Price Outlook
69
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
69
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
69
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
71
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
75
Risks To Outlook
76
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
77
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
77
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
82
Risks To Outlook
83
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
84
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
84
Supply Keeps Market Down
84
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
86
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
87
Risks To Outlook
90
Macroeconomic Forecasts
91
Table: Brazil - Economic Activity
96
Demographic Forecast
97
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
98
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
99
Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
100
Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
100
Methodology
101
Industry Forecast Methodology
101
Sector-Specific Methodology
102
Sources
103

The Brazil Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Brazil Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc