Business Monitor International


Brazil Food & Drink Report

Published 28 May 2014

  • 123 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Brazil Food & Drink Report

We are revising down our real private consumption growth forecast to 2.0%, from 2.3%, accounting for a large part of the downgrade to our headline growth forecast, as we expect that more significant monetary tightening, as well as continued currency weakness will temper household spending this year. Indeed, on the monetary policy front, we have revised our interest rate outlook for 2014 in recent months, and are now expecting that the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) will hike the Selic target rate to 11.25% in H114 before pausing.

Food and retail consumption is likely to outperform among the country's private consumption items, and we project generally strong sales growth for the main companies in the sector. We also believe that a moderation in input prices (grains) could help margins for these companies to recover in the coming months.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2014 per capita food consumption = +7.1% y-o-y; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018 = +7.4%.

  • 2014 alcoholic drink sales = +8.2% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2018 = +7.2%.

  • 2014 soft drink sales = +8.4% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2018= +8.3%.

  • 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +7.4% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +7.8%.

Key Company Trends

Barge Development Will Eventually Ease Soy Trade : We believe the development of a barge system on the Amazon will help to decrease bottlenecks and costs for Brazilian soybean transportation, increasing the country's competitiveness, especially relative to the US. In the US, the cost of transporting a tonne of soybeans from farm to port averages US$15, compared with US$37 in Brazil. Costs have increased sharply in recent years as Brazil's soybean harvest has reached record highs and infrastructure capacity has reached its limit. In addition, the cost and availability of competing modes of transportation have led to large differences in transportation costs. In the US, 61% of soybeans travel by river, and the cost of transportation by...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
18
Food Consumption
18
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
19
Processed Food
19
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
20
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
21
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
21
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
22
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
23
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
23
Dairy
23
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
24
Confectionery
25
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
27
Table: Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
28
Drink
29
Hot Drinks
29
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
31
Alcoholic Drinks
32
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
33
Soft Drinks
34
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
35
Mass Grocery Retail
37
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
38
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type (%)
38
Trade
39
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
40
Macroeconomic Forecast
41
Table: Brazil - Economic Activity
46
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
47
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q314
48
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q314 (scores out of 10)
51
Brazil Risk/Reward Ratings
52
Market Overview
53
Food
53
Prepared Food/Canned Food
53
Confectionery
53
Dairy
55
Meat
56
Poultry
57
Seafood
58
Drink
58
Hot Drinks
58
Soft Drinks
58
Alcoholic Drinks
59
Mass Grocery Retail
61
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets, 2004-2011
63
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2004-2011 (USDbn)
64
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2004-2011 (BRLbn)
64
Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format - 2011
64
Industry Trends And Developments
65
Food
65
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
66
Drink
73
Key Industry Trends And Developments
73
Mass Grocery Retail
79
Key Industry Trends And Developments
79
Competitive Landscape
82
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Food Sector
82
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Drink Sector
82
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
83
Company Profile
84
JBS
84
Brasil Foods
88
Embotelladora Andina
91
Ambev
93
Schincariol
96
Companhia Brasileira de Distribui--o
98
Walmart
101
Carrefour
104
Global Industry Overview
106
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
115
Demographic Forecast
116
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
117
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
118
Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
119
Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
119
Glossary
120
Food & Drink
120
Mass Grocery Retail
120
Methodology
122
Industry Forecast Methodology
122
Sector-Specific Methodology
123
Sources
123
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
124
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
125
Table: Weighting
126

The Brazil Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Brazil Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Brazil.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazilian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Brazil through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc