Business Monitor International


Brazil Business Forecast Report

Published 20 October 2014 | Quarterly

  • 61 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Brazil Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • Brazil's economic recovery will falter in 2014, with real GDP growth coming in at just 0.7% in 2014. Fixed investment will remain weak in light of falling business confidence, while poor consumer confidence to constrain private consumption growth.

  • We forecast a modest pick-up to 1.5% real GDP growth in 2015, but expect relatively slow private consumption growth and moderate investment will weigh on headline growth in the coming years. 

  • Elevated inflation will keep interest rates steady at 11.00% through end-2014, but the bank will switch its focus from reining in inflation to stimulating growth in 2015. As such, we forecast 100 basis points of rate cuts to 10.00% by end-2015.

  • The widespread public protests that took place in June 2013 marked a turning point for the Brazilian electorate. Public unrest will continue flaring up intermittently until significant progress on promised reforms, including higher-quality public services and greater government transparency, begins to take shape.

  • Brazil's second-round presidential election is too close to call. President Dilma Rousseff is set to face off against Aécio Neves of the Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira on October 26. The election outcome will have a significant impact on the trajectory of economic policy, with Rousseff likely to maintain the status quo while Neves would return to more orthodox economic policies.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have downgraded our 2014 and 2015 real GDP growth forecasts to 0.7% and 1.5% respectively. Fixed investment growth will be more subdued than we initially anticipated, as an electricity price spike in Q114 saw a number of businesses delay investment plans in H114. Moreover, weak business confidence will temper gross fixed capital formation into 2015.  

  • We revised our nominal budget deficit forecast to 4.0% of GDP, from 3.4% previously, following significant fiscal deterioration in recent months. While we long expected the fiscal deficit to...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Economic Policy At A Crossroads Heading Into Second-Round Vote
8
TABLE: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
10
Economy To Dominate Policymaking
10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Slow Growth Here To Stay
14
TABLE: Economic Acti vit y
14
Fiscal Policy
15
Fiscal Consolidation Ahead, Neves Victory Would Spell More
15
TABLE: Fiscal Policy
16
Monetary Policy
17
Opposition Victory Would Pose Upside Risks To Interest Rate Forecasts
17
TABLE: Monetar y Polic y
18
Balance Of Payments
19
Eroding Goods Trade Surplus To Weigh On Current Account
19
TABLE: Current Account
20
Exchange Rate Policy
22
BRL: Election Outcome Key To Pace Of Depreciation
22
TABLE: Currency Forecast
22
TABLE: Exchange Rate
22
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
25
The Brazilian Economy To 2023
25
Q115: Days Of Easy Growth Are Gone
25
TABLE: Long -Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: Operational Risk
30
Transport Network
31
TABLE: Transport Network Risks
32
Economic Openness
37
TABLE: Economic Openes
37
TABLE: Top Five Products Exported
38
TABLE: Top Five Trade Partners Product Imports
39
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
41
Oil & Gas
41
TABLE: Headline Forecasts
41
TABLE: Oil Production
42
TABLE: Oil Production
42
TABLE: Gas Production
44
TABLE: Gas Production
44
Infrastructure
46
TABLE: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
47
TABLE: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
48
Other Key Sectors
51
TABLE: Pharma Sector Key Indicatorts
51
TABLE: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
51
TABLE: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators
52
TABLE: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators
52
TABLE: Autos Sector Key Indicators
52
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
53
Global Outlook
53
Big Emerging Market Revisions
53
Table : Global Assumptions
53
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
54
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
54
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
55

The Brazil Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Brazil and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Brazil's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Brazil's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Brazil's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Brazil, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Brazil Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Brazil economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Brazil through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Brazil Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Brazil and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Brazil, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Brazil over the next 5-years?

BMI's Brazil country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Brazil Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Brazil.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Rankings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ankings, rankings and trends for Brazil's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Brazil's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Rankings with SWOT Analysis - Business Environment Risk Rankings for Brazil, benchmarked against rankings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Brazil's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Rankings.

Key Sector Outlook

Which industry sectors in Brazil will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI's identifies investment opportunities in Brazil's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry with developments over 2009-2013, covering major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2014-2018, using BMI's proprietary industry modeling technique, which incorporates all key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across, and within, each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express