Business Monitor International


Botswana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 12 February 2014

  • 62 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Botswana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: While Botswana offers a relative ly stable environment for pharmaceutical and healthcare investors, low per-capita pharmaceutical and healthcare expenditure will remain a key downside risk to the development of the sector. In addition, the overall Sub-Saharan Africa region has low expenditure on healthcare and pharmaceutical, making it less likely that firms will invest in the region.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: BWP1.60bn (US$193mn) in 2013 to BWP1.75bn (US$202mn) in 2014; +7.6% in local currency terms and 4.6% in US dollar terms.

Healthcare: BWP7.42bn (US$883mn) in 2013 to BWP8.17bn (US$945mn) in 2014; +10.1% in local currency terms and +7.0% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

Botswana's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q214 is 39.5 - slightly lower than the MEA region's score of 42.3, placing it 17 out of 30 countries in the region. We note that the country have above average scores of 7.7 and 8.1 respectively for 'industry risks' and 'country risks'.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Highlighting the poor healthcare in Botswana, residents of Inalegolo in the Hukuntsi sub-district stated in January 2014 that health facilities in the district are in need of maintenance as the facilities have no electricity.

  • In November 2013, Dr. Gloria Somolokae, assistant Minister of Health stated that while the government is not reluctant to construct a hospital in Kanye, the construction of such a hospital is not provided for in the country's current National Development Plan.

BMI Political View: With general elections in October, political parties in Botswana are beginning their campaigns. We believe that the ruling Botswana Democratic Party will maintain its dominance as the opposition coalition has begun to fragment already. Participation rates are in focus, with a campaign to increase voter turnout underway, though this is unlikely to have significant bearing on the election given its current success rate.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
13
Table: Botswana Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts
14
Healthcare Market Forecast
15
Table: HIV Prevalence In Sub-Saharan Africa (2011)
16
Table: Botswana Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
19
Table: Botswana Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
19
Table: Botswana Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
20
Macroeconomic Forecasts
21
Economic Analysis
21
Table: Botswana - Economic Activity
25
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Botswana Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Rewards
34
Risks
35
Market Overview
36
Table: Overall Market Size Is Small But Individual Expenditure Is Relatively High
36
Industry Trends And Developments
39
Epidemiology
39
Table: 2012 HIV/AIDS Indicators For A Selection Of Southern African Countries
41
Regulatory Development
43
Intellectual Property Issues
43
Research & Development
46
Pharmacovigilance
47
Company Profile
49
Gemi Pharmacure
49
Demographic Forecast
51
Table: Botswana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
52
Table: Botswana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
53
Table: Botswana's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
54
Table: Botswana's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
54
Glossary
55
Methodology
57
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
57
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
57
Notes On Methodology
58
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
59
Ratings Overview
60
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
60
Indicator Weightings
61

The Botswana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Botswana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Botswanan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Botswana to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Botswanan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Botswanan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Botswana.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc