Business Monitor International


Botswana Mining Report

Published 02 June 2014

  • 79 pages
 
$1,295.00
Botswana Mining Report

Botswana hosts one of the best regulated and strongest performing mining sectors in Africa, with diamonds the main commodity. Botswana's mining industry also deals in oth er metals and minerals including copper, nickel and coal. Additionally, uranium mining is likely to take off over the next decade.

We maintain a positive outlook for Botswana's mining sector over our forecast period to 2018. Diamonds will remain the mainstay of Botswana's mining production. We forecast modest growth for the diamond sector, boosted by new projects planned by Debswana, Gem Diamonds and Lucara Diamond Corp. Nevertheless, the major driver of growth will be acceleration in the country's coal production.

Botswana's mining sector is on course for steady growth over the next few years as we forecast the sector to average 3.5% growth from 2014 to 2018, reaching a value of USD6.3bn by 2018.

Strong Coal Growth Potential

Botswana's mining potential is enormous, with large diamond, copper and coal deposits and numerous successful exploration projects. Over the next few years we highlight particularly strong potential for growth in coal production. Fast growth from a low base will be driven by companies including Anglo American, Exxaro, African Energy & CIC Energy, bringing substantial investment into Botswana's nascent coal sector.

Botswana - Major New Mining Projects
Company Mine Production/ Reserves Year
CIC Energy Mmamabula Coal: 4.5mntpa 2016
African Energy Sese Coal: 1mntpa 2016
Minergy Mmamabula Coal: Inferred Resources: 2.8bnt na
Debswana Jwaneng (extension) Diamonds: Deposit of 100mnct na
Sentula Mining Asenjo Coal: Exploration & Feasibility Stage na
Source: BMI, Company Announcements

Diversification To Prove Difficult

Slow economic recovery in the US and Europe, two of the main export markets for Botswana's diamond production, has hindered growth in the country. As such the government is...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Botswana - Major New Mining Projects
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Diamonds: Diamonds Are Forever
11
Table: Botswana - Main Diamond Projects
13
Power Constraints Should Be Alleviated
13
Table: Diamond Production (Botswana 2010-2018)
14
Coal: Botswana Begins To Fulfil Colossal Potential
14
Improved Transport Routes To Assist Growth
16
Table: Botswana - Coal Deposits
16
Coal To Have Huge Impact On Wider Economy
17
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Botswana 2010-2018)
17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
18
Risk/Reward Ratings
18
Botswana On Top
19
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
20
South Africa: Still Ranking Highly
20
Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards
21
Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Rewards
23
Industry Rewards
23
Country Rewards
23
Risks
24
Industry Risks
24
Country Risks
24
Table: Botswana - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts
25
Regulatory Development
26
Corruption
27
Tax Regime
27
Table: Botswana - Political Overview
28
Table: Africa - Mining Regulatory Outlook
29
Commodities Forecast
31
Monthly Metals Update
31
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
31
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
33
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
34
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
35
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
36
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
37
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
41
Thermal Coal Outlook
41
Table: BMI Thermal Coal Forecast
41
Table: Select Coal Contracts (US$/tonne)
49
Table: Global - Coal Production Forecasts
49
Competitive Landscape
50
Company Profile
52
Norilsk Nickel
52
Company Overview
53
Company Strategy
54
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data
55
Anglo American
56
Company Strategy
59
Latest Results
60
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data
61
Regional Overview
62
Mining - Africa Overview
62
Key Opportunities
62
1
62
2
64
3
65
Key Challenges
66
1
66
2
67
3
68
Table: Africa - Key Mining Regulatory Developments
69
Global Industry Overview
71
Challenges
71
Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals
75
Cause For Optimism
78
Methodology
85
Industry Forecast Methodology
85
Sources
86
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
87
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
89

The Botswana Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Botswana Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Botswana.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Botswana to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Botswana's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Botswana.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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