Business Monitor International


Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report

Published 15 August 2014

  • 82 pages
 
$1,295.00
Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Bosnia is one of the more challenging markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. Although local loop unbundling (LLU) and number portability have provided some respite to the underlying decline in the wireline market, the three regional incumbents still dominate and alternative operators' customer bases appear to be shrinking. The mobile market, too, seems to be suffering from a degree of fatigue, although the arrival of MVNO Izi mobil in mid-2013 seems to have added a new competitive dynamic. Additional MVNO services were announced in Q214, but it is too soon to determine the scope of their impact. Competition will likely be price-led, although m:tel 's purchases of small alternative wireline and cable TV operators suggests that innovations in the converged services arena could begin to add lustre to this small and otherwise unappealing market.

Key Data

  • The mobile market grew by 4.1% y-o-y in 2013, as penetration rose to 91.1%, indicating significant growth potential for operators over the medium term.

  • Bosnia's fixed-line market grew by 1.5% y-o-y in 2013, compared to an 8.4% y-o-y decline a year earlier; we attribute this to the introduction of number portability and LLU.

  • We estimate that the broadband market grew by 11.4% y-o-y in 2013, driven by rising demand for mobile data and cable broadband connections.

Key Trends & Developments

In June 2014, m:tel received approval to acquire Logosoft and Elnet Laktasi . The deals would add wireline and pay-TV operations to m:tel's mobile telephony offerings. The company is keen to counter BH Telecom 's growing presence in the converged services market and to differentiate itself from MVNO Izi mobil, which launched in June 2013. Additional MVNOs were poised to enter the market in Q2/Q314, putting further pressure on m:tel.

Over the last decade, t he government of Bosnia has been mulling the privatisation of one or more of the country's inc umbent wireline operators, the f...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
16
Mobile
16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Bosnia-Herzegovina 2011-2018)
16
Wireline
19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Bosnia-Herzegovina 2011-2018)
19
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
21
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q414
25
Market Overview
27
Mobile
27
Regional Overview
27
Table: Regional Comparison, 2013
28
Key Developments
28
Mobile Growth
29
Market Share
31
Subscriber Mix
32
Usage
34
MVNOs
34
Networks
35
Mobile Content
38
Mobile Operator Data
41
Table: Market Overview
41
Table: BH Mobile
41
Table: Mobilne Srpske
42
Table: HT Mostar
42
Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
43
Wireline
47
Key Developments
47
Fixed-Line
47
Broadband
49
Pay-TV And Converged Services
53
Table: Wireline Developments, 2009-2011
55
Industry Trends And Developments
56
Table: Selected Developments
59
Regulatory Development
60
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
60
Competitive Landscape
62
Table: Key Players
62
Table: Selected Operators' Financial Indicators (USDmn)
62
Company Profile
63
BH Telecom
63
Regional Overview
68
Business Divisions
68
Table: ENT: Revenue By Business Segment (HRKmn)
68
Financial Performance
68
Geographical Performance
69
Table: ENT: Revenue By Geography (HRKmn)
70
Domestic Market
70
Export Markets
71
Ericsson Market
72
Outlook
73
Table: Selected Contracts, 2013/14
74
Demographic Forecast
75
Demographic Outlook
75
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
76
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
77
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
78
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
78
Glossary
79
Table: Glossary Of Terms
79
Methodology
81
Industry Forecast Methodology
81
Sources
82
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
83
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
84
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
85

The Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Bosnia-Herzegovina's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Bosnia-Herzegovina to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bosnian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bosnia-Herzegovina's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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