Business Monitor International


Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report

Published 16 May 2014

  • 82 pages
 
$1,295.00
Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Bosnia is one of the more challenging markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. Although local loop unbundling (LLU) and number portability have provided some respite to the underlying decline in the wireline market, the three regional incumbents still dominate and alternative operators' customer bases appear to be shrinking. The mobile market, too, seems to be suffering from a degree of fatigue, although the arrival of MVNO Izi mobil in mid-2013 seems to have added a new competitive dynamic. Additional MVNO services were announced in Q214, but it is too soon to determine the scope of their impact. Competition will likely be price-led, although m:tel 's purchases of small alternative wireline and cable TV operators suggests that innovations in the converged services arena could begin to add lustre to this small and otherwise unappealing market.

Key Data

  • The mobile market grew by 4.1% y-o-y in 2013, as penetration rose to 91.1%, indicating significant growth potential for operators over the medium term.

  • Bosnia's fixed-line market grew by 1.5% y-o-y in 2013, compared to an 8.4% y-o-y decline a year earlier; we attribute this to the introduction of number portability and LLU.

  • We estimate that the broadband market grew by 11.4% y-o-y in 2013, driven by rising demand for mobile data and cable broadband connections.

Key Trends & Developments

In June 2014, m:tel received approval to acquire Logosoft and Elnet Laktasi . The deals would add wireline and pay-TV operations to m:tel's mobile telephony offerings. The company is keen to counter BH Telecom 's growing presence in the converged services market and to differentiate itself from MVNO Izi mobil, which launched in June 2013. Additional MVNOs were poised to enter the market in Q2/Q314, putting further pressure on m:tel.

Over the last decade, t he government of Bosnia has been mulling the privatisation of one or more of the country's inc umbent wireline operators, the f...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Mobile
15
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Bosnia-Herzegovina 2011-2018)
15
Wireline
17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Bosnia-Herzegovina 2011-2018)
17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
19
Table: CEE Telecoms Risk/Rewards Ratings, Q314
21
Market Overview
23
Mobile
23
Regional Overview
23
Table: Regional Comparison, 2013
24
Key Developments
24
Mobile Growth
25
Market Share
26
Subscriber Mix
27
Usage
28
MVNOs
28
Networks
29
Mobile Content
32
Mobile Operator Data
34
Table: Market Overview
34
Table: BH Mobile
34
Table: Mobilne Srpske
35
Table: HT Mostar
35
Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
36
Wireline
41
Key Developments
41
Fixed-Line
41
Broadband
43
Pay-TV And Converged Services
47
Table: Wireline Developments, 2009-2011
49
Industry Trends And Developments
50
Table: Selected Developments
52
Regulatory Development
53
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
53
Competitive Landscape
57
Table: Key Players
57
Table: Selected Operators' Financial Indicators (USDmn)
57
Company Profile
58
BH Telecom
58
Regional Overview
65
Table: Ericsson Quarterly And Annual Results By Segment (SEKbn)
66
Demographic Forecast
69
Demographic Outlook
69
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
70
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
71
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
72
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
72
Glossary
73
Table: Glossary Of Terms
73
Methodology
75
Industry Forecast Methodology
75
Sources
76
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
77
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
78
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
79

The Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Bosnia-Herzegovina's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Bosnia-Herzegovina to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bosnian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bosnia-Herzegovina's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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