BMI View: Bosnia is one of the least developed markets in Central and Eastern Europe , which means there is great medium - term growth potential. Bosnia's mobile market recovered in Q213 and Q313, after a net subscription loss in Q113, confirm ing our view of continued subscription growth on the back of regulatory measures aimed at boosting competition. We therefore retain our five-year growth forecast for the mobile sector, but caution that regular inactive SIM discounting poses a downside risk to our outlook. Meanwhile, the wireline market is gaining momentum as competition between the incumbent operators and alternative players drives innovation and lead s to lower prices. The take-up of mobile data services could however ultimately lower growth in fixed broadband subscriptions, particularly once LTE services become available.
The mobile market grew by 2.6% q-o-q in Q313, as penetration rose to 87.7%, indicating significant growth potential for operators over the medium term.
Data from the regulator, CRA, showed Bosnia's fixed-line market to have declined faster in 2012 compared to 2011, with the rate of decline accelerating to 9.8% from 4.5% in 2011.
We estimate a total of 652,000 broadband subscriptions at end-2013, up 14.7% y-o-y.
Key Trends & Developments
The wireline market is evolving in Bosnia as a result of investments by the incumbent operators and the activities of alternative operators. There has been a spate of acquisition activity in the market, which is resulting in smaller operators making gains and posing an increasing challenge to incumbent operators. Telemach has been active, acquiring Art-Net in March 2013, while Telekom Slovenije owned BlicNet acquired No Limit Technology in December 2013. However, the incumbent operators have also been active, with m:tel reaching an agreement to acquire Logosoft in December 2013, following its proposed acquisition of Elnet . BMI believes consolidation of smaller...
The Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Bosnia-Herzegovina's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Bosnia-Herzegovina to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bosnian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Bosnia-Herzegovina's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.