BMI View: Although there has been an improvement in economic data from Bosnia, with the country returning to growth in 2013 on the back of strong manufacturing and exports, the commercial real estate sector continues to be affected by low demand and high vacancy rates.
However, over the long term there is significant potential in the market, which is one of Europe's relatively few untapped real estate markets. We believe that in the longer term interest from international retailers, manufacturers and real estate developers will lead to the development of the market. As consumer spending rises and unemployment falls, considerable demand for modern retailing should develop, and as transport and other infrastructure projects make trade and logistics easier, we see significant scope for the development of industrial real estate.
However, there are downside risks to this optimistic long-term picture. The political situation is unstable, and there are difficulties in operating across Bosnia's two administrative areas, the Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina and the Republika Srpska. Meanwhile, governmental paralysis means important reforms are not being undertaken, leading to criticism from the EU.
Rental rates across the board tend to be higher in Sarajevo, the capital city and economic hub of the country. However, we note that a number of retail developments in the city are still suffering from vacancies, and our in-country sources point out that interest from international firms has waned.
The real estate sector as a whole has been seeing increasing investment from the Middle East, however. Notably the Sarajevo City Centre shopping mall was built by a Bahraini and Saudi Arabian joint venture (JV).
We have given Bosnia a score of 50.9 out of 100 in our Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings for Central and Eastern Europe. The country benefits from a good industry-specific longer term risk profile, but its score is dragged down by a very poor country risk outlook, at only...
The Bosnia-Herzegovina Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.
BMI's Bosnia-Herzegovina Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
- Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for Bosnia-Herzegovina to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bosnian real estate market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Bosnia-Herzegovina through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.
Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.
Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historical data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:
Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)
Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%)
Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$)
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Real Estate Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) in the regional real estate market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.