The Namibia Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Namibia. The Namibia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Namibian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Namibia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Namibia's political, economic and financial prospects through end-, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

Key Uses of the Namibia Business Forecast Report | Namibia Political Outlook | Namibia Economic Outlook | Namibia Business Environment | Key Namibia Industry Sectors | Namibia's BMI Executive Summary | Our Business Forecast Report Subscribers

Key Uses

• Forecast the pace and stability of Namibia's economic and industry growth through end-
• Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Namibia, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
• Assess critical shortcomings of Namibia's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
• Contextualise Namibia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
• Target business opportunities in Namibia's high-growth industry sectors
• Evaluate external threats to doing business in Namibia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Namibia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Namibia's Political Outlook, Namibia's Economic Outlook, Namibia's Business Environment and Namibia's Key Industry Sectors.

Namibia's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Namibia over the next 10 years?

BMI's Namibia Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Namibia Political Outlook Contents

• SWOT Analysis for the Namibian Market
  Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Namibia.
• Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Namibia
  BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Namibia's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
• Current Administration and Policy-making in Namibia
  BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Namibian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Namibian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-.
• Namibian Foreign Policy
  BMI examines key trends and shifts in Namibia's foreign relations and alignments with neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

1. Benchmark Namibia's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Namibia, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
3. Gain valuable insights into the Namibian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Namibia's Economic Outlook:

How will Namibian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2009-18?

BMI provides our fully independent 10-year forecasts for Namibia through end- for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Namibian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Namibia Economic Outlook Contents

The Namibia Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Namibia, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 set against Namibian government views. Underpinning our Namibia forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Namibia

• Economic Activity in Namibia
  Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
• Fiscal Policy in Namibia
  Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
• Monetary Policy in Namibia
  Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Namibia; Namibian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
• Balance of Payments in Namibia
  Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
• Foreign Direct Investment in Namibia
  Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
• Namibian External Debt
  Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Namibia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Namibia database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Namibian government economic policy

Namibia Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Namibia's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Namibia.

Namibia Business Environment Contents

• Namibia's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
  Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Namibia, benchmarked against ratings for neighbouring countries.
• Country Competitiveness for Namibia
  Competitiveness of Namibia's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 10-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Namibia's Domestic Environment

• Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT
• Foreign Direct Investment in Namibia
  Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
• Foreign Trade with Namibia
  Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Namibia's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Namibia will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Namibian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Namibia's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Namibia's Key Industry Sectors Contents

BMI's independent 10-year forecasts to end- and industry trend analyses for Namibia's leading industry sectors, including a selection from:

- Automotive - Defence & Security - Food & Drink - Freight Transport - Infrastructure - Oil & Gas - Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare - Telecommunications

Coverage of Namibia's Key Industry Sectors - Namibian Market Overview

• Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment
• Latest Developments in Namibia
  Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Namibia; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
• 10-year Industry Forecast for Namibia
  Historic dataset (2004-2008) and BMI forecasts through end-, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Namibia's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Namibia's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Business Forecast Reports?

The Namibia Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Namibia.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Political Outlook

SWOT analysis

BMI Political Risk Ratings

Domestic Politics

TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook

SWOT analysis

BMI Economic Risk Ratings

Economic activity

TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Monetary Policy

TABLE: MONETARY POLICY

Exchange Rate

TABLE: EXCHANGE RATE POLICY

Balance Of Payments

TABLE: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast

TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Chapter 4: Special Report

China

United States

A Potential Double-Dip Recession

Europe

TABLE: BANKS' LEVERAGE RATIOS

TABLE: ASSETS AS % OF HOME COUNTRY GDP

TABLE: ASSETS AS % OF HOME COUNTRY GDP WHEN EUROZONE IS CONSIDERED ‘HOME COUNTRY'

TABLE: EXPOSURE AS % OF TOTAL EXPOSURE TO REGION

TABLE: BANKS' FOREIGN EXPOSURE (US$ MN)

TABLE: EXPOSURE AS % OF NATIONAL GDP

Chapter 5: business Environment

SWOT analysis

BMI business Environment Risk Ratings

Business Environment Outlook

TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATIONAL RISK RATINGS

TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATINGS

Institutions

Market Orientation

TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATINGS

TABLE: BMI TRADE RATINGS

TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS

Infrastructure

Operational Risk

Chapter 6: BMI Global assumptions

Global Outlook

TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS

TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES

TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS

Coming Soon: Recession

Growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008, and we are now forecasting a full-year economic contraction in 2009, with real GDP projected to shrink by 1.0%. The country will be hit by falling export receipts, particularly in the hard-hit diamond mining sector, but we expect investment and private consumption to fall as well. Meanwhile, we are projecting the current account to flip into deficit and inflation to ease, prompting aggressive interest rate cuts by the central bank. On the political front, elections are scheduled for November, but we believe the ruling South West African People’s Organisation (SWAPO) will easily hold onto power, despite the stuttering economy.

Namibia is expected to hold national elections in November 2009, and our core scenario is for another victory by SWAPO. That said, the Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP), a new party formed by ex-SWAPO leaders in November 2007, is untested and polls suggest the party, alongside other opposition groups, could erode SWAPO’s dominance, potentially even denying it the supermajority (two-thirds) needed to amend unilaterally the constitution, an important milestone for opposition politics in Namibia. SWAPO seems to be taking the RDP’s threat seriously, instituting a series of policies which seem designed to derail the RDP’s chances of electoral success.

Namibia is most immediately exposed to the global financial crisis via its exports, which we see contracting by 9.4% in real terms in 2009, but gross fixed capital formation should also fall, as incentives to invest decline and international credit tightens. At the same time, we anticipate the one-to-one peg of the Namibian dollar to the South African rand will continue to hold, and we expect international risk aversion to lead to further rand, and therefore Namibian dollar, weakness. Contracting domestic demand and a weaker currency is projected to lead to a concomitant drop in imports, but we are still calling for Namibia’s current account to flip into deficit in 2009. Slowing growth will also put the brakes on inflation, which is set to decline over the year, and we expect this to augur aggressive interest rate cuts by the Bank of Namibia.

With an abundance of natural resources - notably diamonds, uranium, zinc and copper - the country can expect to see an increase in FDI focused on related projects after the global recession bottoms out. However, the government is keen to reduce its dependency on primary industries, and, with its spectacular scenery and safari, Namibia is positioning itself as a high-end tourist destination. The country has well-developed infrastructure, with plans to expand the regional hub port of Walvis Bay. While the country continues to make significant progress against corruption, graft remains a problem.

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International
"I've found BMI's Business Forecast Reports most informative & helpful with pertinent information at a level that supports both strategic intent as well as more short term initiatives."
(Managing Director, Essilor South Africa Pty Ltd, South Africa.)