The Botswana Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Botswana. The Botswana Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Botswanan market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Botswana's political, economic and financial prospects through end- , just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

Key Uses of the Botswana Business Forecast Report | Botswana Political Outlook | Botswana Economic Outlook | Botswana Business Environment | Key Botswana Industry Sectors | Botswana BMI Executive Summary | Our African Business Forecast Report Subscribers

Key Uses

• Forecast the pace and stability of Botswana's economic and industry growth through end-
• Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Botswana, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
• Assess critical shortcomings of Botswana's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
• Contextualise Botswana's country risks against African regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
• Target business opportunities in Botswana's high-growth industry sectors
• Evaluate external threats to doing business in Botswana, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Botswana's Political Outlook, Botswana's Economic Outlook, Botswana's Business Environment and Botswana's Key Industry Sectors.

Botswana's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Botswana over the next 10 years?

BMI's Botswana Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Botswana Political Outlook Contents

• SWOT Analysis for the Botswanan Market
  Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Botswana.
• Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Botswana
  BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Botswana's risk are compared with African regional and global averages.
• Current Administration and Policy-making in Botswana
  BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Botswanan government, assessing threats to the continuity of Botswanan economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end- .
• Botswanan Foreign Policy
  BMI examines key trends and shifts in Botswana's foreign relations and alignments with African neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

1. Benchmark Botswana's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Botswana, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
3. Gain valuable insights into the Botswanan government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Botswana's Economic Outlook:

How will Botswanan economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2009-18?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for through for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Botswanan growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Botswana Economic Outlook Contents

The Botswana Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Botswana, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 set against Botswanan government views. Underpinning our forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end- , covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Botswana

• Economic Activity in Botswana
  Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
• Fiscal Policy in Botswana
  Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
• Monetary Policy in Botswana
  Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Botswana; Botswanan currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
• Balance of Payments in Botswana
  Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
• Foreign Direct Investment in Botswana
  Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
• Botswanan External Debt
  Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Botswanan and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Botswanan government economic policy

Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Botswana's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT,foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Botswana.

Botswana Business Environment Contents

• Botswana's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
  Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Botswana, benchmarked against ratings for African neighbouring countries.
• Country Competitiveness for Botswana
  Competitiveness of Botswana's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 10-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Botswana's Domestic Environment

• Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT
• Foreign Direct Investment in Botswana
  Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
• Foreign Trade with Botswana
  Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Botswana's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Botswanan market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Botswana's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Botswana's Key Industry Sectors Contents

BMI's independent 5-year forecasts to end- and industry trend analyses for Botswana's leading industry sectors, including a selection from:

- Automotive - Defence & Security - Food & Drink - Freight Transport - Infrastructure - Oil & Gas - Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare - Telecommunications

Coverage of Botswana's Key Industry Sectors - Botswanan Market Overview

• Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment
• Latest Developments in Botswana
  Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in ; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
• 10-year Industry Forecast for Botswana
  Historic dataset (2004-2008) and BMI forecasts through end-2017, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Botswana's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Botswana's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys African Business Forecast Reports?

The Botswana Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Botswana.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Political Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Political Risk Ratings

Political Outlook

TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Economic Risk Ratings

Economic Activity

TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Monetary Policy

TABLE: MONETARY POLICY

Balance Of Payments

TABLE: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

Fiscal Policy

TABLE: FISCAL POLICY

Human Capital

Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast

The Botswana Economy To 2018

TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts

Chapter 4: Special Report

China

United States

Europe

TABLE: Banks' Leverage Ratios

TABLE: Assets As % of Home Country GDP

TABLE: Assets As % of Home Country GDP When Euro zone Is Considered ‘Home Country '

TABLE: Exposure As % of Total Exposure To Region

TABLE: Banks' Foreign Exposure (US$ mn)

TABLE: Exposure As % of National GDP

Chapter 5: Business Environment

SWOT Analysis

BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings

Business Environment Outlook

TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATIONAL RISK RATINGS

TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATINGS

Infrastructure

Market Orientation

TABLE: MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS

TABLE: BMI TRADE RATINGS

Operational Risk

TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS

Chapter 7: BMI Global Assumptions

Global

TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS

TABLE: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH, % CHG Y-O-Y

Economic Activity

TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS

TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS

TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKET EXCHANGE RATES

Monetary Policy

Commodities

TABLE: EMERGING MARKET EXCHANGE RATES

Challenges Mount In 2009

As global growth experiences a sharp slowdown in 2009, Botswana will find itself particularly exposed given its heavy dependency on diamond, copper and nickel exports. With global prices having suffered in Q408 on the back of waning global demand, particularly for big ticket luxury consumer purchases, the outlook has turned decidedly negative. Such a slowdown in real economic growth has come at an especially unfortunate time for President Ian Khama Seretse Khama and the Botswana Democratic Party, with both facing the electorate this year. That said, we do not expect any strong challenge to the party’s rule, which has been uninterrupted since independence in 1966.

Its management of the economy will become a test of the BDPs hitherto little challenged hegemony, with the party having benefited from strong real growth over the years. Even if the economic situation worsens, however, the opposition parties remain poorly funded and lack the organisation to take advantage. While the BDP may lose some seats, we do not believe that there will be any upsets come the election. With Botswana’s stable polity, we expect the elections to be free and fair, and for the country to avoid the political violence and disruption that has affected its neighbours.

As the global economic clouds darken, we have downgraded our forecast of real GDP growth to 1.0% and 1.1% for 2008/09 and 2009/10, from 4.1% and 5.2% respectively. With diamonds, as well as copper and nickel, making up the largest proportion of exports, weaker global demand and associated price pressures will feed through to lower exports and reduced associated fiscal revenues. Inflation will continue to ease in 2009 to our year-end forecast of 7.6% as imports and energy costs remain subdued.

Standard & Poor’s, the ratings agency, recently affirmed Botswana’s investment grade sovereign risk ratings of A/A-1 for foreign currency debt and A+/A-1 for pula obligations, with a stable outlook. In the current global economic climate, the outcome of the agency’s review is an impressive achievement. Some drawdown of official net external assets is anticipated, reflecting a cyclical slowing in FDI inflows, and the public finances will come under moderate pressure, but years of prudent economic management have left the country with ample savings to potentially mitigate some of the worst effects of the global economic slowdown.

"The most useful section of BMI's report for my business is the Economic Outlook, which contains specific details of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to my business from within the country. This helps me, when planning for the future to reach the widest market and also gives me the edge in order to overtake my competitors."
(Chairman, Bavarian Auto Trading. BMW Egypt, Egypt.)