The Angola Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Angola. The Angola Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Angolan market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Angola and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Angola's political, economic and financial prospects through end-, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

Key Uses of the Angola Business Forecast Report | Angola Political Outlook | Angola Economic Outlook | Angola Business Environment | Key Angola Industry Sectors | Our African Business Forecast Report Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses

• Forecast the pace and stability of Angola's economic and industry growth through end-
• Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Angola, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
• Assess critical shortcomings of Angola's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
• Contextualise Angola's country risks against African regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
• Target business opportunities in Angola's high-growth industry sectors
• Evaluate external threats to doing business in Angola, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Angola Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Angola's Political Outlook, Angola's Economic Outlook, Angola's Business Environment and Angola's Key Industry Sectors.

Angola's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Angola over the next 10 years?

BMI's Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Angola Political Outlook Contents

• SWOT Analysis for the Angolan Market
  Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Angola.
• Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Angola
  BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Angola's risk are compared with African regional and global averages.
• Current Administration and Policy-making in Angola
  BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Angolan government, assessing threats to the continuity of Angolan economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-.
• Angolan Foreign Policy
  BMI examines key trends and shifts in Angola's foreign relations and alignments with African neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

1. Benchmark Angola's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Angola, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
3. Gain valuable insights into the Angolan government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Angola's Economic Outlook:

How will Angolan economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2009-18?

BMI provides our fully independent 10-year forecasts for through end- for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Angolan growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Angola Economic Outlook Contents

The Angola Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Angola, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 set against Angolan government views. Underpinning our Angola forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Angola

• Economic Activity in Angola
  Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
• Fiscal Policy in Angola
  Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
• Monetary Policy in Angola
  Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Angola; {nationality} currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
• Balance of Payments in Angola
  Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
• Foreign Direct Investment in Angola
  Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
• Angolan External Debt
  Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Angolan government economic policy

Angola Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Angola's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT,foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Angola.

Angola Business Environment Contents

• Angola's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
  Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Angola, benchmarked against ratings for African neighbouring countries.
• Country Competitiveness for Angola
  Competitiveness of Angola's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 10-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Angola's Domestic Environment

• Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT
• Foreign Direct Investment in Angola
  Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
• Foreign Trade with Angola
  Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Angola's Key Industry Sectors?

Which industry sectors in will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Angolan market

BMI targets investment opportunities in Angola's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Angola's Key Industry Sectors Contents

BMI's independent 10-year forecasts to end- and industry trend analyses for Angola's leading industry sectors, including a selection from:

- Automotive - Defence & Security - Food & Drink - Freight Transport - Infrastructure - Oil & Gas - Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare - Telecommunications

Coverage of Angola's Key Industry Sectors - Angolan Market Overview

• Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment
• Latest Developments in Angola
  Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Angola; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
• 10-year Industry Forecast for Angola
  Historic dataset (2004-2008) and BMI forecasts through end-, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Angola's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Angola's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys African Business Forecast Reports?

The Angola Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Angola.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Oil Dependence To Prompt Recession

In 2009, Angola faces a significant macroeconomic challenge in the form of sharply lower oil prices. Hydrocarbons have fuelled double-digit economic expansion in recent years, but with a global recession and reduced oil export revenues in the pipeline, more difficult times lie ahead. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, BMI now sees a 1.7% contraction of the global economy in 2009, and OPEC oil prices averaging just US$39.50/bbl. Angola’s over-dependence on its energy sector will be exposed as the economy goes into a recession for the first time since 1993 and the external position is weakened. We believe the nation will weather the storm, however, and enjoy a strong bounce-back in growth in 2010.

As Angola heads towards its first presidential election since 1992, we see significant risk that the poll will be delayed beyond the previously-planned timeframe of September 2009. Regardless of whether the vote takes place this year or next, it is almost certain that President Eduardo Dos Santos will remain in power. The odds are very much in his favour given the dominance of his Movimento Popular de Liberação de Angola (MPLA) party, its advantageous financial position, and the state’s control over the media. While this bodes well for short-term stability and policy continuity, it highlights the democratic shortcomings of Angola.

On the economic front, a 0.8% GDP contraction is on the cards for 2009. Amid low international oil prices we believe net exports will decline, exerting a costly drag on growth. Compounding this effect, the government is expected to rein in spending in response to sharply declining oil revenues. A devaluation of the Angolan kwanza would alleviate the situation somewhat, and we see scope for a move to AOA87.00/US$ by end-09. We are more upbeat on private investment, given ongoing oil exploration and the forthcoming 2010 Cup of African Nations (CAN) football tournament, but this will not be sufficient to save Angola from an economic contraction, in our view.

Major international oil companies including Chevron, ExxonMobil and Total have all recently affirmed their intention to expand their exploration and production activities in Angola, bearing testament to the attractiveness of the nation’s natural resources for foreign investors. This is good news, especially considering the shortcomings of Angola’s business environment, which include corruption and bureaucracy. Infrastructure also leaves a lot to be desired, although construction works in the lead-up to the 2010 CAN football tournament will improve the situation somewhat. The nation will spend US$400mn revamping old airports and building new hotels to accommodate some of the thousands of fans expected during the January 10-31 competition.