Business Monitor International


Belgium Metals Report

Published 18 November 2014

  • 50 pages
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$1,295.00
Belgium Metals Report

BMI View: Belgium ' s steel sector is starting to enter a period of relative stability. Having witnessed significant decline over recent years, we are now beginning to see production levels stabilising due to gradually improving consumption levels and the diminished output capacity of producers.  

As we move into 2015, there are increasing signs that the depression in Belgian steel production has bottomed out. Total output grew by 4.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the first eight months of 2014 to September, with full year growth estimated at 3.6%. With production forecast to average just over 1% a year over 2015-2018, we expect output to have found a stable footing following periods of sharp contraction, intermingled with sharp rebounds over the past few years.

While our outlook for the sector appears increasingly positive, we note that the current levels of growth are partly the result of low base effects as output has contracted significantly from pre-downturn levels. Producers, including the country's largest steel mill, Arcelormittal, have either cut or temporarily sidelined capacity to reflect weakening market conditions.

Indeed, consumption levels, both domestically and across the wider European market, remain considerably below long-term averages and continued to fall through 2013. Uncertainty surrounding steel demand across the region has been promulgated by ongoing weakness in the major European economies, which also include Belgium's major export markets.

The concern of many producers has been mirrored in recent comments by the World Steel Organisation, who has voiced fears that mills will have to make significant redundancies if consumption levels continue to bump along the bottom.

Domestic crude steel consumption is expected to follow production in remaining weak over the mid-term, with average growth forecast at 1.2% y-o-y over 2015-2018.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Metals SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Steel: Eurozone Growth To Bring Little Upside For Producers
10
Table: Belgium - Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
13
Table: Belgium- Steel Industry Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
14
Regulatory Development
15
Table: Political Overview
15
Commodities Forecast
17
Steel Price Forecast
17
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
17
Short-Term Outlook
17
Core View
18
Global Steel Glut To Persist
18
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
19
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
21
Excessive Chinese Exports
22
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
23
Risks To Price Outlook
23
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
24
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
24
Commodity Strategy
25
Iron Ore: Fading Iron Will
26
Steel: Global Glut To Weigh On Prices
28
Aluminium: Fundamentals To Remain Weak
29
Copper: All Eyes On China
30
Lead: Outperforming Its Troubled Peers
31
Nickel: Monthly Outperformer
33
Tin: Outperforming A Weak Field
34
Zinc: Further Consolidation Likely
35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
37
Competitive Landscape
38
Table: Financial Breakdown Of Companies Operating In Belgium
39
Company Profile
41
ArcelorMittal
41
Company Overview
43
Company Strategy
43
Latest Financial Results
45
Company Details
45
Financial Data
45
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
45
Alcoa
46
Recent Financial Data
49
Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data
50
Methodology
51
Cross Checks
51

The Belgium Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Belgium.

BMI's Belgium Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Belgium.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Belgium to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Belgium metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Belgium through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

A comprehensive summary of the impact and implications of the latest regulatory developments and key forecast indicators covering metals production, consumption and upside/downside risks to our outlook. The Metals SWOT analysis outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Industry Forecast

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Steel: Steel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Aluminium: Aluminium consumption production & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Copper: Refined copper production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Zinc: Refined zinc production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Lead: Refined Lead production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Nickel: Refined nickel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Tin: Refined tin production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).

Regulatory Development

Details of the industry regulatory framework, relevant key legislation and environmental standards that impact the metals industry. The regulatory developments section provides analysis of the overall regulatory burden, the tax regime (including income tax rates), bureaucratic framework, corruption and a country specific political overview. Details of the industry regulatory framework provide information on relevant key legislation and regulations that will impact the metals industry.

Commodities Forecast

Provides in depth coverage and forecasting of steel prices and includes BMI’s core view of what to expect in upcoming months. Within the monthly metals update, BMI provides performance data and key forecasts for select commodities, including prices for aluminium, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel, palladium, platinum, silver, steel (MEPS Carbon Steel), tin and zinc.

Competitive landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses of detailed financial data for key listed metals firms, ranked in order of market cap (USDmn).

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive position and short to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects. Details of products and services provide a full overview of each company’s operations.

Sources

The Metals Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc