Business Monitor International


Belgium Metals Report

Published 18 August 2014

  • 48 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Belgium Metals Report

BMI View: Belgium ' s steel sector is starting to enter a period of relative stability. Having witnessed significant decline over recent years, we are now beginning to see production levels stabilising due to gradually improving consumption levels and the diminished output capacity of producers.  

As we move into 2015, there are increasing signs that the depression in Belgian steel production has bottomed out. Total output grew by 4.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the first eight months of 2014 to September, with full year growth estimated at 3.6%. With production forecast to average just over 1% a year over 2015-2018, we expect output to have found a stable footing following periods of sharp contraction, intermingled with sharp rebounds over the past few years.

While our outlook for the sector appears increasingly positive, we note that the current levels of growth are partly the result of low base effects as output has contracted significantly from pre-downturn levels. Producers, including the country's largest steel mill, Arcelormittal, have either cut or temporarily sidelined capacity to reflect weakening market conditions.

Indeed, consumption levels, both domestically and across the wider European market, remain considerably below long-term averages and continued to fall through 2013. Uncertainty surrounding steel demand across the region has been promulgated by ongoing weakness in the major European economies, which also include Belgium's major export markets.

The concern of many producers has been mirrored in recent comments by the World Steel Organisation, who has voiced fears that mills will have to make significant redundancies if consumption levels continue to bump along the bottom.

Domestic crude steel consumption is expected to follow production in remaining weak over the mid-term, with average growth forecast at 1.2% y-o-y over 2015-2018.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Metals SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Steel: Eurozone Growth To Bring Little Upside For Producers
10
Table: Belgium - Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
13
Table: Belgium- Steel Industry Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
14
Regulatory Development
15
Table: Political Overview
15
Commodities Forecast
17
Steel Price Forecast
17
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
17
Short-Term Outlook
17
Core View
18
Global Steel Glut To Persist
18
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
19
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
21
Excessive Chinese Exports
22
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
23
Risks To Price Outlook
23
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
24
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
24
Commodity Strategy
25
Iron Ore: Fading Iron Will
26
Steel: Global Glut To Weigh On Prices
28
Aluminium: Fundamentals To Remain Weak
29
Copper: All Eyes On China
30
Lead: Outperforming Its Troubled Peers
31
Nickel: Monthly Outperformer
33
Tin: Outperforming A Weak Field
34
Zinc: Further Consolidation Likely
35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
37
Competitive Landscape
38
Table: Financial Breakdown Of Companies Operating In Belgium
39
Company Profile
41
ArcelorMittal
41
Company Overview
43
Company Strategy
43
Latest Financial Results
45
Company Details
45
Financial Data
45
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
45
Alcoa
46
Recent Financial Data
49
Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data
50
Methodology
51
Cross Checks
51

The Belgium Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Belgium.

BMI's Belgium Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Belgium.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Belgium to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Belgium metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Belgium through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc