Business Monitor International


Belarus Telecommunications Report

Published 20 November 2013

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Belarus Telecommunications Report

Executive Summary

BMI View: The heavy presence of the government in the Belarusian telecoms market continues to hold it back, leaving it as one of the more underdeveloped in the region. During the 2014 update, this was highlighted by the licensing of beCloud to provide a singular LTE network for the country. While this is a positive move in that it cuts costs for operators and prevents duplication of infrastructure, beCloud is part-owned by the state and could therefore pose s problems for private companies in the market. This highlights the problems of doing business in the country and results in a telecoms sector which lacks investment, leading to delays in the latest technology and some of the lowest ARPU rates in the region. If the government is able to sell its stake in MTS Belarus, there is potential for strong growth, particularly as consumers have demonstrated a demand for data. This has manifested itself in the uptake in 3G services over 2012, as well as the expansion of international gateways and roll-out of FTTB networks. The entrance of beCloud seems to imply the market has taken a step back, and with the Belarusian ruble set to depreciate further in 2013 and into 2014 , our outlook for the sector remains bearish.

Key data

  • Mobile subscriptions returned to y-o-y growth in Q213, with an increase of 0.5% from Q212. The number totalled 11.115mn and the penetration rate improved to 118.8%. This was despite further subscription discounting by Turkcell owned BeST, although its rivals' growth has noticeably slowed down .

  • 3G subscriptions had a 33% penetration at end-2012, representing roughly 3.1mn users. This has been by cheap handset driven offers and extensive coverage by operators.

  • Fixed-line subscriptions bounced back in 2012, recovering from the macroeconomic driven decline in 2011. Subscriptions increased by 1.9% in 2012 as Beltelecom pushes multi-play packages and consumer spending power improved in H113. .

Key Trends And...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Belarus Mobile Industry SWOT
6
Belarus Wireline SWOT Analysis
7
Belarus Political SWOT
8
Belarus Economic SWOT
8
Belarus Business Environment SWOT
8
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
10
Central And Eastern Europe
10
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113
13
Belarus
15
Industry Forecast Scenario
18
Mobile
18
Table: Belarus Telecoms Sector - Mobile Historical Data And Forecasts
18
ARPU
20
Table: ARPU - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2076
20
Fixed-Line
22
Table: Belarus Telecoms Sector - Fixed-Line Historical Data And Forecasts
22
Internet
24
Table: Belarus Telecoms Sector - Internet Historical Data And Forecasts
24
Market Overview
26
Mobile
26
Regional Perspective
26
Table: Belarus Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011
26
Key Developments
27
Mobile Growth
28
Market Shares And Net Additions
29
Table: Belarus Mobile Subscribers, September 2012 (000')
29
Table: Subscriber Net Additions, Q311-Q312 ('000)
31
Subscription Mix
31
Usage (ARPU/MOU)
32
Networks
34
Mobile Content/Value Added Services
37
Table: Top 10 sites in Belarus (unique users)
38
Value-Added Services Timeline
40
Table: Selected VAS Services
40
Mobile Operator Data
41
Table: Market Overview
41
Table: Velcom
41
Table: MTS Belarus
42
Table: BeST
43
Mobile Content
44
Regional Outlook
44
Fixed-Line
48
Internet
51
Wi-Fi
53
Cable
54
WiMAX
55
Table: Wireline developments
57
Industry Trends & Developments
60
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
62
Overview
62
Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
62
Licensing And Spectrum
63
Tighter Controls on Internet Access
64
Regulatory Developments
65
Competitive Landscape
66
Key Players
66
Table: Key Players: Belarus Telecoms Sector
66
Company Profiles
67
Beltelecom
67
MTS Belarus
73
Velcom (Previously MDC)
78
BeST
81
BelCel
84
Cosmos TV
87
Company Monitor
89
Vendor Profile
89
Table: Revenue By Business Segment (HRK '000)
89
Table: Revenue By Geography (HRKmn)
90
Table: Key Contracts, 2011-2012
93
Country Snapshot: Belarus Demographic Data
94
Table: Belarus' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
95
Table: Belarus' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
95
Table: Belarus' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
96
Table: Belarus' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
96
Glossary Of Terms
98
Table: Glossary Of Terms
98
BMI Methodology
100
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
100
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
100
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
101
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
102
Table: Ratings Indicators
103
Sources
104

The Belarus Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Belarus's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Belarus Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Belarus.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Belarus to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Belarusian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Belarus's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Belarus.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc