Business Monitor International


Belarus Food & Drink Report

Published 28 March 2014

  • 115 pages
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$1,295.00
Belarus Food & Drink Report

BMI View: We expect strong food consumption growth in Belarus (in roubles) to continue over our forecast period to 2018. However, this expansion will not be driven by increased economic activity, with real GDP growth (in US dollar terms) forecast to contract by 0.4% in 2014 and return to 0.3% growth in 2015, but will be largely fuelled by double digit inflation rates. We consider Belarus a risky market due to its political isolation from much of Europe and high level of government intervention in economic matters. High levels of inflation are a further concern, particularly for consumer goods sectors.

Headline Industry Data

  • Food consumption value (local currency) growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +18.2%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018: +14.3%

  • Per capita food consumption value (local currency) growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +18.8%; CAGR to 2018: +14.8%

  • Alcoholic drinks value (local currency) sales growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +24.3%; CAGR to 2018: +15.6%

  • Alcoholic drinks volume sales (litre) growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +4.8%; CAGR to 2018: +3.2%

  • Soft drinks value (local currency) sales growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +21.2%; CAGR to 2018: +16.7%

  • Soft drinks volume sales (litres) growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +3.5%; CAGR to 2018: +4.0%

Key Company Trends

  • In August 2013, Belarus imposed temporary restrictions on all dairy products produced by Fonterra in the wake of the firm's botulism scare. The move came after Fonterra announced that a protein concentrate produced for infant formula and animal feed might be infected with the Colstridium botulinum bacteria. Fonterra exports US$133mn of dairy goods to Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan.

Key Risks To Outlook

A potential uptick in consumer price inflation could deter consumption as the likely extreme weakness of the Belarusian rouble pushes up the cost of imported goods.

If the crisis in Ukraine escalates beyond our core scenario into a widespread ground war in the country, it would undoubtedly take its toll on the Belarusian...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Food
8
Drink
10
Mass Grocery Retail
12
Industry Forecast
14
Consumer Outlook
14
Food
15
Food Consumption
15
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
16
Confectionery
17
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
18
Meat And Fish
19
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
20
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
22
Pasta
24
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
25
Snack Foods
26
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
26
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
28
Oils and Fats
29
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
29
Dairy
30
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
31
Drink
35
Alcoholic Drinks
35
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
36
Soft Drinks
38
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
39
Hot Drinks
42
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
42
Mass Grocery Retail
43
Trade
44
Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
45
Macroeconomic Forecast
46
Economic Analysis
46
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
53
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
53
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q214
55
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q214 (scores out of 10)
59
Belarus Risk/Reward Ratings
59
Market Overview
61
Food
61
Food Consumption
61
Food Processing
61
Confectionery
62
Agriculture
62
Drink
63
Soft Drinks
65
Hot Drinks
65
Mass Grocery Retail
67
Industry Trends And Developments
69
Food
69
Key Industry Trends And Developments
69
Drink
72
Key Industry Trends And Developments
72
Mass Grocery Retail
72
Key Industry Trends And Developments
72
Competitive Landscape
74
Table: Key Players In Belarus's Food Sector
74
Table: Key Players In Belarus's Drink Sector
75
Table: Key Players In Belarus's Mass Grocery Retail Industry
76
Company Profile
77
Bellakt
77
Kraft Foods
79
Krinitsa
81
PepsiCo
84
Euroopt
86
Sedmoi Kontinent
88
Vester
90
Global Industry Overview
92
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
101
Demographic Forecast
102
Table: Belarus' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
103
Table: Belarus' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
104
Table: Belarus' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
105
Table: Belarus' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
105
Glossary
106
Food & Drink
106
Mass Grocery Retail
106
Methodology
108
Industry Forecast Methodology
108
Sector-Specific Methodology
109
Sources
109
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
110
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
111
Table: Weighting
112

The Belarus Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Belarus Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Belarus.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Belarus to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Belarusian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Belarus through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc