Pub date: 27 Apr 2012 Latin America / Argentina Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Argentina's unsustainable macroeconomic trajectory will continue to pose moderate risks to the country's commercial banking sector. While low levels of penetration suggest financial institu... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / Australia Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The recent amendment to the Banking Act in October 2011 has allowed Australian banks to raise funding through the issuance of covered bonds. While covered bonds could help lower funding co... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Austria Commercial Banking Industry Report
Financial conditions in the eurozone have improved markedly over recent months thanks to the European Central Bank (ECB)'s long-term refinancing operation in December 2011 and February 2012. The pro... Read More
Pub date: 19 Apr 2012 Middle East / Bahrain Commercial Banking Industry Report
Banking Sector: Holding Up Despite Difficult Backdrop BMI View: We are forecasting a slow and steady expansion in Bahrain's retail banking sector in 2012, with the aggregate balance sheet for the in... Read More
Pub date: 19 Apr 2012 Asia / Bangladesh Commercial Banking Industry Report
Politicking To Take Its Toll On Stressed Banking Sector BMI View: Despite the reservations of the central bank and the IMF, the government's persistent (likely politically-motivated) willingness to ... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Bosnia-Herzegovina Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The Bosnian banking sector posted robust growth in 2011 and is set for further expansion in 2012. This coalesces with our fairly upbeat longer-term view predicated on expansion in the indus... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Latin America / Brazil Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Though we anticipate that banking sector growth in Brazil will remain strong in 2012, we believe this growth will exacerbate existing imbalances in the sector. Indeed, extremely high levels... Read More
Pub date: 15 Mar 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The Bulgarian banking sector remains at risk from the ongoing eurozone sovereign debt crisis, given its high exposure to Europe's periphery. We expect the banking industry's recovery to rem... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 North America / Canada Commercial Banking Industry Report
The big change to Canadian banking sector data since Q311 has been the shift in accounting standards to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as of November 2011. This has affected Canad... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Latin America / Chile Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: We maintain our constructive outlook on the Chilean banking sector, thanks to its low level of systemic risk and Chilean banks' strong balance sheets. While the combination of regulatory ch... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Asia / China Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Despite total new yuan loans reaching a higher-than-expected CNY738bn in January 2012, we continue to see total loan growth moderating as banks register rising numbers of non-performing lo... Read More
Pub date: 19 Apr 2012 Latin America / Colombia Commercial Banking Industry Report
Banking Sector Growth To Cool In 2012 BMI View: We maintain a relatively constructive outlook for Colombia's banking sector in 2012. Though loan growth will slow, partly due to rising interest rates... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Europe / Croatia Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The Croatian banking sector is facing a number of monumental risks to its stability given a high degree of reliance on external funding, especially from Italy, France and Austria, which thr... Read More
Pub date: 27 Apr 2012 Europe / Czech Republic Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: We maintain a sanguine view on the Czech Republic's commercial banking sector and believe it will remain one of the most stable in the CEE region. Strong risk metric readings, subdued but ... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Africa / Egypt Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The outlook on the Egyptian banking sector in 2012 remains subdued in light of a weak macroeconomic backdrop, risks of a currency devaluation, and elevated provisioning for loan losses. Net... Read More
Pub date: 20 Apr 2012 Europe / Eurozone Commercial Banking Industry Report
LTRO 2: Diminishing Marginal Returns To Crisis Management BMI View: The ECB launched its second major long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) on February 29, with around 800 banks eagerly swallowing ... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Europe / France Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: While French banks have staged a shaky return to stability, divesting high-risk and capitalintensive assets, they remain highly leveraged and serious questions still linger over their asset... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Europe / Germany Commercial Banking Industry Report
Eurozone Core Status To Underpin Banking Sector Stability BMI View: Declining loan growth and a virtual standstill in asset growth in Germany's banking sector highlight the increasingly challenging ... Read More
Pub date: 20 Apr 2012 Europe / Greece Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The foundations of the Greek banking sector are crumbling as corporate and retail depositors continue to withdraw funds on mass and rush for the exits. Only the supply of cheap and easily ... Read More
Pub date: 15 Mar 2012 Asia / Hong Kong Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Despite reporting strong profits in the first three quarters of 2011 and being marginally exposed to Europe, our outlook on Hong Kong's banking sector is less than optimistic. We expect ban... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Europe / Hungary Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Weakening economic activity, deteriorating credit quality, external deleveraging effects and concerns over government policy will together weigh heavily on the performance of Hungarian bank... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Asia / India Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Over the recent years, India's commercial banks have substantially increased their exposure to the country's power sector. While it may be a prudent move given the long-term energy needs of... Read More
Pub date: 19 Apr 2012 Asia / Indonesia Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The government's ongoing debate over whether or not to decrease costly fuel subsidies has cast doubt on Bank Indonesia's aggressive easing agenda. While the impact of the government's decis... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Middle East / Iran Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: It is becoming increasingly inevitable that Iranian banks will be forced to significantly restructure their debts if they are to avoid outright default. As a result of ongoing political and... Read More
Pub date: 03 May 2012 Middle East / Israel Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: We expect asset growth within Israel's commercial banking sector to drop off in the coming quarters as the domestic economy runs into a soft patch, forecasting total asset growth to fall to... Read More
Pub date: 03 May 2012 Europe / Italy Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Emergency liquidity measures provided by the ECB and the Bank of Italy have staved off the threat of an immediate liquidity crisis, providing the banking sector with a window to restructure... Read More
Pub date: 03 May 2012 Asia / Japan Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Real estate related loans on Japanese banks balance sheets have seen relatively slow growth compared to the growth in portfolio assets, a trend that we expect to reverse over the medium ter... Read More
Pub date: 04 May 2012 Middle East / Jordan Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: We expect asset growth in Jordan's commercial banking sector to remain weak throughout 2012 on the back of a slowing domestic economy, and forecast both deposit and credit growth to fall s... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Kazakhstan Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Kazakhstan's banking sector will continue to recover from its 2009 crisis, with the country's robust growth underpinning credit demand. That said, a high proportion of bad assets and a weak... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Africa / Kenya Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: 2012 will be a year of two halves for Kenyan banks. The first six months will prove challenging due to high inflation and interest rates and tight domestic liquidity. However, conditions s... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Middle East / Kuwait Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Sluggish demand for new credit continues to weigh on the Kuwaiti banking sector, despite a recent upswing in deposit inflows. Persistent disruption to the implementation of government infr... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Europe / Latvia Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Despite showing signs of stabilisation, Latvia's banking system has yet to post a material recovery. We expect stagnation and rising capital buffers to characterise the coming years as dema... Read More
Pub date: 09 Mar 2012 Asia / Malaysia Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Banking sector revenues from export-oriented industries, particularly the manufacturing sector, should significantly underperform loans to sectors that are mainly driven by domestic demand.... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Latin America / Mexico Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: We forecast a significant expansion of consumer credit in Mexico in 2012 on the back of a more benign macroeconomic environment, increasing competition within the banking sector and tighter... Read More
Pub date: 09 Mar 2012 Africa / Nigeria Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The banking sector continues to show signs that it is on the mend, and we expect 2012 to be strongly positive for the industry. The reforms and restructuring that characterised much of 2011... Read More
Pub date: 03 May 2012 Middle East / Oman Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Oman's banking sector looks set to be a regional outperformer in 2012, driven by strong government spending and the introduction of Islamic finance. We are forecasting an expansion in the ... Read More
Pub date: 09 Mar 2012 Asia / Pakistan Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The commercial banking sector's problem of rising non-performing loans (NPLs) will unlikely ease in the immediate future despite the State Bank of Pakistan's interest rate cuts, given the ... Read More
Pub date: 04 May 2012 Latin America / Peru Commercial Banking Industry Report
After a rapid recovery in 2010, Peru's commercial banking sector appears to have shifted onto a more stable growth trajectory as of late 2011, as we argued would be the case in our Q411 update. Asset... Read More
Pub date: 09 Mar 2012 Asia / Philippines Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: We see the Philippine banking system as a relative safe haven in a region that faces twin headwinds of reduced foreign lending and a slowdown in regional economic growth. We expect banks to... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Europe / Poland Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: We expect the strong credit and deposit growth seen in 2011 to continue in 2012, albeit at a slower pace, given households' healthy balance sheets, domestic monetary easing and the broader ... Read More
Pub date: 04 May 2012 Middle East / Qatar Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: We see both credit and total asset growth in the Qatari banking sector slowing in 2012, as base effects and a relatively high loans-to-deposits ratio weigh on banks' sources of financing. T... Read More
Pub date: 04 May 2012 Europe / Romania Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Romania's commercial banking sector is likely to struggle by way of growth and profitability in the coming quarters. Beleaguered European parent banks and Romanian subsidiaries' dependence ... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Europe / Russia Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: A major infrastructure investment push and efforts by the incoming Russian president to invite foreign investment into the country should stand the Russian banking sector in good stead. We ... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Middle East / Saudi Arabia Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Saudi Arabia's commercial banks continue to benefit from the country's ongoing economic boom. Robust deposit inflows and strong domestic demand for credit have spurred lending, and we expec... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Asia / Singapore Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Singaporean banks ended 2011 on a strong note, but we believe they will find it progressively harder going forward to grow profits. On the back of a cooling housing market and a tepid overa... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Europe / Slovakia Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: While the ECB's LTRO operations have caused near-term liquidity concerns to abate, we maintain our core view that the Slovak banking sector will experience fairly tepid growth over 2012. W... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Europe / Slovenia Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The combination of a rapidly deteriorating domestic economy and the need for banks to repair their balance sheets indicates that asset and loan growth will prove particularly weak over the ... Read More
Pub date: 09 Mar 2012 Africa / South Africa Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: We retain our view that South Africa's banking sector will see slow but steady growth over the coming year. Longer-term, we are more upbeat given the potential stemming from the wider regio... Read More
Pub date: 10 May 2012 Asia / South Korea Commercial Banking Industry Report
Structural Change Bodes Well For Sector BMI View: South Korean banks appear to be going through a fundamental change in their external debt profiles, having increased sharply their holdings of long-... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Europe / Spain Commercial Banking Industry Report
Anaemic Outlook Unchanged By LTRO BMI View: While liquidity risks have firmly receded in light of the ECB's long-term refinancing operations, this is unlikely to result in a pick-up in domestic lend... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Asia / Sri Lanka Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: With the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) taking a surprisingly hawkish turn in its latest monetary policy review, the country's commercial banking sector will not only have to grapple with... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Switzerland Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: We reiterate that Swiss banks will continue to face significant challenges in the coming quarters, which will weigh on their asset growth and profitability. In addition to tougher regulator... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Asia / Taiwan Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Taiwan's banking sector has long been due another bout of consolidation and we believe this is likely to take place in 2013. The mergers are necessary in order for banks and other sectors t... Read More
Pub date: 09 Mar 2012 Asia / Thailand Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The government's decision to transfer THB1.14trn in debt obligations to the central bank, accompanied by a hike in deposit insurance fees paid by commercial banks, has presented further do... Read More
Pub date: 04 May 2012 Europe / Turkey Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The broad-based improvement in global risk sentiment witnessed since the start of 2012 has prompted us to revise our end-year Turkish banking sector asset and loan growth forecasts up to 10... Read More
Pub date: 04 May 2012 Europe / Ukraine Commercial Banking Industry Report
Inconsistent Monetary Policy Creates Additional Risks For Banks BMI View: We retain our bearish outlook towards Ukraine's commercial banking sector due to high levels of FX exposure, problematic liq... Read More
Pub date: 09 Mar 2012 Middle East / United Arab Emirates Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: We retain a cautious outlook on the UAE banking sector in 2012 and are pencilling in only a moderate expansion in the industry's consolidated balance sheet. Domestically, weakness in the re... Read More
Pub date: 09 Mar 2012 Europe / United Kingdom Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The UK banking sector will be confronted with a more difficult year in 2012 as the eurozone sovereign debt crisis nears its make-or-break moment. Despite efforts to boost capital adequacy, ... Read More
Pub date: 09 Mar 2012 North America / United States Commercial Banking Industry Report
The US commercial banking sector continues to heal slowly, alongside an economic recovery that is weak by historical standards. Total client loans have finally returned to their 2008 peak, and contin... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Latin America / Venezuela Commercial Banking Industry Report
n the surface Venezuela's commercial banking sector looks to be in relatively good shape in the early stages of 2012, with signs that systemic risks have actually moderated since our last update. No... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Asia / Vietnam Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The State Bank of Vietnam has introduced a wave of aggressive reforms aimed at strengthening the banking system and boosting the competitiveness of local commercial banks. These measures i... Read More
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