BMI View: The Bahraini economy is expanding and the real estate sector is projected to remain stagnant. Instability affects the country and continues to scare off investors and tourists , as a result we forecast rents to slightly increase and net yields to remain stable across all sectors.
The commercial real estate market is continuously affected by the global financial crisis, political protests and a construction boom financed by the government. This translates into stagnant rents and endemic oversupply of rental space. Among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Bahrain has been one of the slowest to recover from the crisis and the protests stemming from the Arab springs contribute to the fact that economic growth is likely to be slow.
Bahrain GDP growth is still extremely dependant to the movement of the oil price as it contributes to 80% of Bahrain's export income. Consequently it is raises difficulty about being optimistic about the short-term prospects for Bahrain's commercial real estate market. The longer-term outcome will depend on Bahrain economic achievement outside the export-oriented oil sector.
Looking at different sectors, BMI finds similar stagnation in both rents and net yields across office, retail and industrial sectors. Though businesses continue to expand seeking newer and largest units in Bahrain, the political uncertainty is slowing these transactions to a crawl. Moreover, vacancy rates and low rates persist, as there is a lack of new corporations wishing to enter the Kingdom. This negative dynamic may persist until companies consider Bahrain stable enough to settle in.
These factors are also affecting retail particularly those closely tied to tourism. While the Bahraini government is encouraging further tourism, these efforts might not be sufficient if no political solution is found in the near term between rival communities in the country. Saudi Arabia Tourism will continue to travel to Bahrain however providing only a small stream...
The Bahrain Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.
BMI's Bahrain Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Bahrain.
- Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for Bahrain to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bahraini real estate market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Bahrain through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.
Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.
Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historical data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:
Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)
Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%)
Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$)
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Real Estate Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) in the regional real estate market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.