Business Monitor International


Bahrain Oil & Gas Report

Published 16 December 2014

  • 89 pages
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$1,295.00
Bahrain Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Despite limited success in boosting oil and gas production from the Bahrain field, the key development for the country will be the refining capacity expansion at the K ingdom's centrepiece Sitra refinery. However, delays to the expansion will result in a continuation of fuel export declines and a widening of the country's fiscal defic it until 2020. This marks a two- year delay to our previous forecast which saw increasing fuel exports from 2018. Other plans envisage the construction of a liquefied natural gas receiving terminal, although this is still a long way from realisation.

Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2012-2018)
2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 52.0 58.0 60.0 62.0 64.1 66.4 68.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 256.6 263.0 263.0 263.1 263.1 263.2 263.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 46.0 49.0 51.5 54.0 56.7 59.0 61.4
EIA/BMI

Click here to explore data

We highlight the following trends and developments in Bahrain's oil and gas sector:

  • Redevelopment work (new wells, enhanced oil recovery and improved oil recovery) undertaken at the Bahrain field are boosting oil production at the mature field. While we expect some success, the low permeability of the heavy oil reservoirs, among other issues, have led us to anticipate delays. We have not yet included all volumes projected by the project.

  • Our core view remains that continued subsidisation will support strong refined fuels consumption growth over the next five years. However, we note that the weakness in oil prices will reinforce Bahrain's unsustainable fiscal dynamics. This could provide the necessary push to drive through fuel...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil & Gas Reserves
10
Table: Bahrain Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Bahrain Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
12
Table: Bahrain Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
12
Table: Bahrain Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
13
Refining Capacity And Oil Products Trade
15
Table: Bahrain Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
15
Table: Bahrain Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
16
Gas Supply And Demand
19
Table: Bahrain Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
19
Table: Bahrain Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
20
LNG
22
Revenues/Import Costs
23
Risk To Outlook
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Middle East - Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs)
25
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
27
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
29
Bahrain - Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Market Overview
32
Bahrain Energy Market Overview
32
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
34
Oil Refineries
34
Table: Refineries In Bahrain
35
Oil Storage Facilities
36
Service Stations
36
Oil Pipelines
36
Gas Pipelines
37
Competitive Landscape
38
Competitive Landscape Summary
38
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Bahrain Oil And Gas Sector
39
Table: Key Upstream Players
39
Table: Key Downstream Players
39
Company Profile
40
Bahrain Petroleum Company (BAPCO)
40
Bahrain National Gas Company (Banagas)
44
Chevron Bahrain
46
Occidental Petroleum
48
Other Summaries
51
Regional Overview
52
Middle East Energy Market Overview
52
Proven Producers Invest To Lift Oil Output
52
OPEC: Major Hurdles Ahead
57
Consuming It All
59
Gas Rises, But Consumption Does Too
61
Global Industry Overview
65
Global Energy Market Overview
65
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
67
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
68
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
69
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
71
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
71
Appendix
74
Middle East - Regional Appendix
74
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
74
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
75
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
75
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
76
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
76
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
77
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
77
Table: Gas Consumption, 2015-2023 (bcm)
78
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
78
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
79
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
79
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
80
Bahrain - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
81
Table: Bahrain Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
81
Table: Bahrain Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
82
Table: Bahrain Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
83
Table: Bahrain Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
84
Table: Bahrain Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
85
Table: Bahrain Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
86
Glossary
88
Table: Glossary Of Terms
88
Methodology
90
Industry Forecast Methodology
90
Source
92
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
92
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
94
Table: Weighting
95

The Bahrain Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Bahrain including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Bahrain Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bahraini oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Bahrain to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bahraini oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bahraini oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc