Business Monitor International


Bahrain Freight Transport Report

Published 02 January 2014

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Bahrain Freight Transport Report

Bahrain continues to invest heavily into making itself a key logisitics centre in the Gulf. The primary port, the Khalifa Bin Salman Port (KBSP) is to have its channel deepened, and the Bahrain International Airport is to be expanded. We question whether the small island state can compete with the investment that has already been put into making Dubai a logistics hub for the region; however, Bahrain has succeeded in attracting new logistics companies to its territory over the past 12 months, and we forecast healthy growth across its freight modes over our medium-term forecast period.

Headline Industry Data

  • Growth at the port of Khalifa bin Salman (KBSP) in terms of total tonnage throughput is forecast at 6.0% in 2014, with average annual growth forecast at 5.5% between 2014 and 2018.

  • Growth in Bahrain International Airport tonnage handling forecast at 2.0% in 2014, with average annual growth of 1.7% over our forecast period.

  • Real growth in total trade forecast at 4.5% in 2014 and to average 3.9% over the medium term.

Key Industry Trends

New GCC Logistics Firm To Address Region's Freight Weakness: The planned Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Integrated Logistics Company, due to start operations in 2014, will offer a boost to the region's freight transport sector by streamlining its trade procedures. At present the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region's score on the BMI Logistics Index is lowest on the Trade Procedures & Governance component of the index. BMI believes that the planned GCC Integrated Logistics Company will start to address the trade procedures and governance challenges in the GCC, but more needs to be done across the whole MENA region.

BIA Expansion Plan - Is More Transhipment Capacity Needed?: Bahrain International Airport's (BIA) cargo expansion plan comes despite the continued decline in air freight volumes through the facility. The airport has stated that its transhipment cargo is increasing and it appears that this is the area...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Macroeconomic Outlook
13
Maritime Freight
13
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2011-2018 ('000 tonnes)
16
Air Freight
16
Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018 ('000 tonnes)
17
Trade
18
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
18
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
18
Table: Bahrain's Main Import Partners, 2004-2012 (US$mn)
19
Table: Bahrain's Main Export Partners, 2004-2012 (US$mn)
20
Market Overview
21
Industry Trends And Developments
28
Road And Logsitics
28
Air
30
Maritime
31
Rail
33
Company Profile
34
BMMI
34
United Arab Shipping Company (UASC)
37
Political Outlook
39
Domestic Politics
39
Long-Term Political Outlook
42
Table: BAHRAIN - POLITICAL OVERVIEW
46
Oil Price Outlook
47
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
47
Methodology
47
Crude Price Forecasts
47
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$
Variance Across Product Markets
48
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
51
Weak Demand Persists
52
Risks To Outlook
53
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$
Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
54
Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand
58
Gasoline And Gasoil
Gasoline And Gasoil
Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement
62
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
64
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
64
Macroeconomic Forecasts
68
Economic Analysis
68
Table: Bahrain - Economic Activity
77
Demographic Forecast
78
Demographic Outlook
78
Table: Bahrain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
79
Table: Bahrain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
80
Table: Bahrain's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
81
Table: Bahrain's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
81
Methodology
82
Industry Forecast Methodology
82
Sector-Specific Methodology
83
Sources
84

The Bahrain Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Bahrain Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bahraini freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Bahrain to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bahraini freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc