Business Monitor International


Bahrain Autos Report

Published 21 March 2014

  • 49 pages
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$1,295.00
Bahrain Autos Report

Bahraini new light vehicle sales totalled 53,487 units in 2013, according to information on the Focus2Move website. This reportedly represented growth of 14.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), which tied in very closely to BMI's forecasts for the past year.

Looking at trends for 2014 and beyond, BMI believes that the Bahraini auto market will continue to see strong and steady growth, in the order of 7% per annum, with total sales set to rise through 65,000 units per year by the end of our forecast period in 2018.

Backing up our optimism towards the local sales market is a favourable economic backdrop.  BMI's country risk team expects progress on public infrastructure projects to be the key driver of economic growth in Bahrain over the coming years, in contrast to more subdued performances in both the oil and services sectors. This quarter, we retain our forecast for real GDP growth of 3.4% in 2014, as oil production stays flat throughout the second half of the year, accelerating to 4.2% and 4.3% in 2015 and 2016 respectively on the back of stronger construction activity. This greater amount of construction work will clearly lead to rising demand for heavy trucks and related machinery, which should boost commercial vehicle sales in particular.

Car sales also remain strong, with US automaker General Motors (GM) reporting an annual rise in sales of 69% in April 2014, compared to 27% in Kuwait and 22% in the UAE. We expect total sales to expand by over 7% in 2014, with risks remaining very much to the upside.

One downside risk to our current forecasts remains the continued uncertainty surrounding Bahrain's political landscape. Ongoing domestic tensions still pose a threat to consumer and business confidence, and will continue to limit the prospects of a tangible recovery in private investment.

Further uncertainty has been caused by the decision by Bahrain's Shura Council in May 2014 to pass a new traffic law than will ban expatriates from driving unless it is part of their job....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
6
Political
8
Economic
9
Business Environment
10
Industry Forecast
11
Table: Bahrain - Autos Sales, 2010-2017
11
Macroeconomic Forecasts
15
Economic Outlook
15
Table: Bahrain - Economic Activity
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
22
Table: Middle East And North Africa Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Competitive Landscape
25
Table: Bahrain Autos Sector - Key Players
28
Company Profile
29
Al Zayani Investments
29
Regional Overview
31
Global Industry Overview
32
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12
32
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On
32
UK Leads As Germany Falters
34
Russia And Brazil Go From Strength To Strength
36
Demographic Forecast
38
Bahrain Demographic Data
38
Table: Bahrain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
39
Table: Bahrain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
40
Table: Bahrain's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
41
Table: Bahrain's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
41
Methodology
42
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
42
Automobile Industry
43
Sources
43

The Bahrain Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Bahrain Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Bahrain.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Bahrain to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Bahraini automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bahraini automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

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