Business Monitor International


Bahrain Autos Report

Published 03 October 2014

  • 49 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Bahrain Autos Report

New car sales have seen impressive growth in Bahrain year-to-date, rising by a reported 22% over H114, to 31,608 units. Given the positive start to 2014, we have decided to make an upwards revision to our 2014 sales forecast. BMI is now forecasting 14.5% growth in 2014, up from the previous forecast of just above 7%. This will take full-year new vehicle sales to around 63,298 units.

BMI's positive view on the near-term outlook for the Bahraini economy underpins our upbeat stance. Our Country Risk team is currently targeting 3.4% real GDP growth for 2014, rising to 3.8% in 2015 and 2016. In particular, we feel that Bahrain's economic growth will remain driven by the non-hydrocarbon sector heading into 2015, with supportive fiscal policies and progress on government-backed infrastructure projects helping to balance still-restrained business activity.

The country's inflation backdrop is also improving, with BMI having revised down its 2014 annual average CPI forecast to 2.9%, from 3.4% previously.  Although rental prices will continue to see strong growth as a result of tight housing stocks, weak international food prices and restrained wage growth will limit overall inflation. This could reduce pressure on the Central Bank to make any changes to domestic interest rates, which would prove helpful for any Bahraini consumers seeking financing for their new vehicle purchases.

However, there are some impediments to economic growth, which is why we believe that growth in new vehicle sales will temper slightly in 2015. First, we do not expect a broad-based upturn in the private sector over the coming quarters, given that the persistent uncertainty of Bahrain's political landscape remains a barrier to business confidence and investment. Secondly, employment growth continues to slow, with wage growth also decelerating.. All of this means that growth in private consumption - a key indicator of likely demand for new vehicles - will slow from 5.8% in 2014, to 4% in 2015....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Bahrain 2012-2018)
14
Sales
14
Trade
17
Passenger Vehicles
18
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Bahrain 2012-2018)
18
Table: Bahrain - Top 10 Selling Manufacturers 2013
20
Table: Bahrain Autos Sector - Key Players
24
Commercial Vehicles
25
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Bahrain 2012-2018)
25
Macroeconomic Forecast
28
Economic Analysis
28
Expenditure Breakdown
31
Table: Economic Activity (Bahrain 2009-2018)
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Middle East Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Table: MENA Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Company Profile
42
Company Monitor
42
Al Zayani Investments
45
Regional Overview
47
Table: MENA Production Investments
47
Global Industry Overview
49
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
49
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
49
Trucks Give North America A Lift
50
India Brings Relief To BRICs
52
Demographic Forecast
54
Table: Bahrain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
55
Table: Bahrain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
56
Table: Bahrain's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
57
Table: Bahrain's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
57
Methodology
58
Industry Forecasts
58
Sector-Specific Methodology
59
Sources
59
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
60
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
61

The Bahrain Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Bahrain Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Bahrain.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Bahrain to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Bahraini automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bahraini automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc