Business Monitor International


Bahrain Autos Report

Published 21 March 2014

  • 49 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Bahrain Autos Report

Looking at trends for 2014 and beyond, BMI believes that the Bahraini auto market will continue to see strong and steady growth, with total sales set to near 65,000 per year by the end of our newly extended forecast period in 2018.

The most recent Bahraini new light passenger vehicle sales data (for the first nine months of 2013) show an 11% increase, to 38,213 units. This ties in well with BMI's own view that new vehicle sales should increase by 14.5% over the year as a whole.

Backing up our optimism towards the local sales market is a favourable economic backdrop. BMI's Country Risk team forecasts relatively robust economic growth of 3.4% in 2014, as elevated public spending and support from the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) help to underpin non-hydrocarbon activity. However, output gains from the oil sector will be limited after a strong recovery in production in 2013, leaving government-backed construction activity and a modest recovery in the private sector as the main drivers of growth.

There are also signs of improvement in business activity. Bahrain's US$7.1bn sovereign wealth fund Mumtalakat, which holds significant stakes in national non-oil firms ranging from aluminium to food production (and therefore provides a good indication of the strength of the economy), stated in January 2014 that the performance of its portfolio is improving, following financial losses over 2011 and 2012. The Bahraini stock market has also been on an upsurge since the start of the year (with gains of 4.4% to-date), after having remained flat throughout the second half of 2013. Finally, we expect a number of public infrastructure projects to be initiated over the coming quarters, a factor that should help to widen Bahraini banks' lending opportunities.

Turning to the outlook for private consumption - a key indicator of likely demand for new vehicles - BMI is targeting growth of 5.8% in 2014, down only slightly from the 6% estimated for 2013. Employment continues...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Sales
14
Table: Bahrain - Autos Sales, 2011-2018
14
Trade
17
Table: Bahrain - Autos Sales, 2011-2018
17
Passenger Vehicles
18
Table: Bahrain - Top 10 Selling Manufacturers (Jan-Sep 2013)
18
Table: Bahrain Autos Sector - Key Players
21
Commercial Vehicles
22
Macroeconomic Forecast
24
Economic Analysis
24
Table: Bahrain - Economic Activity
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Middle East And North Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Middle East And North Africa Autos
34
Company Profile
35
Company News Alert
35
Al Zayani Investments
38
Regional Overview
39
Middle East And North Africa Overview
39
Compete Or Complement In The GCC-
39
North Africa Becoming A Viable Alternative
40
Still Cautious On Iran
42
Global Industry Overview
44
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
44
Europe On Road To Recovery
44
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
46
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
48
Demographic Forecast
51
Demographic Outlook
51
Table: Bahrain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
52
Table: Bahrain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
53
Table: Bahrain's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
54
Table: Bahrain's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
54
Methodology
55
Industry Forecasts
55
Sector-Specific Methodology
56
Sources
56
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
57
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
58

The Bahrain Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Bahrain Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Bahrain.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Bahrain to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Bahraini automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bahraini automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc