Business Monitor International


Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report

Published 16 May 2014

  • 83 pages
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$1,295.00
Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report

Azerbaijan is set to move ahead with the expansion of petrochemicals capacities in 2014, which should boost the country's non-oil sector over the medium term, according to BMI's latest Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report.

Azerbaijan's petrochemicals industry remains volatile and unable to deliver sufficient output for the country's needs. In H114, Azerbaijan produced 38,500 tonnes of polyethylene (PE), down 11.8% year-on-year (y-o-y), according to government statistics. This would put Azerbaijan on course to produce around 75,000-80,000 tonnes of PE in 2014 and significantly under-shooting the government target of 107,000 tonnes and implying a utilisation rate of two-thirds capacity. The poor performance of SOCAR's polymer production underscores the need for new, world-scale production to add value to the country's energy resources.

  • Real GDP growth in Azerbaijan came in at 2.1% y-o-y in H114 according to the national statistical service. This represents a significant slowdown from the end-2013 rate of GDP growth, recorded at 5.8%, and is likely attributable to a slowdown in oil production. In contrast to the stagnation of the oil sector, which will ensure that net exports remain a drag on growth (subtracting 3.6 and 3.1 percentage points from headline GDP in 2014 and 2015 respectively), the non-oil sector continues to expand at a rapid clip, positing growth of 7.0% y-o-y in H114.

  • The medium-term focus will be the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR)'s OGPC, which will have total gas processing capacity of 10-12bn cubic metres (bcm) and oil refining capacity of 10mn tonnes per annum (tpa). The complex is now scheduled to come fully onstream in 2017/18, although BMI is sceptical about the pace of growth and has not included the project in the forecasts. Capacities will include 700,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and low-density polyethylene (LDPE), 550,000tpa polypropylene (PP), 40,000tpa benzene and 110,000tpa...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Table: Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2018
12
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
14
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
14
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
18
Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
19
Market Overview
21
Table: Cracker Capacity Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017 ('000 tpa)
21
Industry Trends And Developments
23
Upstream
24
Company Profile
26
Azerkimya
26
State Oil Company Of Azerbaijan (SOCAR)
28
Regional Overview
31
Europe Overview
31
Regulatory Concerns Add To Competitiveness Issues
31
Declining Capacities
32
Table: European Cracker Capacities, 2013
38
Global Industry Overview
42
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
45
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
46
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
47
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
48
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
48
Gasoline
50
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast, 2012-2018
50
Weak Q114 For Gasoline
51
Europe And The US: Competitive Market To Limit Summer Gains
52
Asia: Market Rebalancing To Better Support Market
55
Risks To Outlook
58
Diesel
58
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
59
New York's One-Off Heat Up
59
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
62
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
66
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
68
Risks To Outlook
72
Jet Fuel
73
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
73
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
73
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
75
Risks To Outlook
78
Bunker fuel
79
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
79
The Storm Clears For Shipping
80
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
82
Long-Term Threats Linger
83
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
85
Risks To Outlook
85
Demographic Forecast
87
Table: Azerbaijan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
88
Table: Azerbaijan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
89
Table: Azerbaijan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
90
Table: Azerbaijan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
90
Glossary
91
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
91
Methodology
92
Industry Forecast Methodology
92
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
94
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
95
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
96

The Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Azerbaijani petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Azerbaijani petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Azerbaijani petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Azerbaijan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc