BMI View: BMI 's latest Austria Metals Report assesses the prospects for growth in the steel industry over the medium term following a return to growth in output and a continuation in year-on-year ( y-o-y ) growth in consumption during the 2013 full-year . Within it, our forecasts for the industry run out to 2018. The report examines the risk and investment strategies of leading players in the industry. It also examines the impact of a decline in the eurozone, particularly the German market, on Austrian exports.
The performance of Austria's steel industry returned to growth once more in 2013, after deteriorating by 0.6% in 2012. Indeed in 2013, crude output increased by 0.5% to 7.46mnt. BMI estimates that consumption levels continued their upward trend for the fourth year running in 2013, rising by 1.2% from 4.78mnt as at December 31 2012 to 4.84mnt a year later. Going forward, BMI is forecasting both output and consumption to increase in 2014 by 0.8% and 1.0%, respectively, y-o-y. Looking further ahead into 2015, while we forecast consumption to continue accelerating, we see production contracting in volume once more to close the year at 7.443mnt compared with 7.518mnt a year earlier.
We note, however, that fluctuations in the monthly data for steel output from Austria suggest that volatility is set to remain in the near term. Indeed according to data from the World Steel Association, Austrian monthly output at the end of September 2014 was below where it started the year. In September output reached 622,000 tonnes, compared with 681,000 tonnes in January 2014. What is more during the first nine months of the year, output levels have reached as high as 706,000 tonnes in March and also fallen as low as 622,000 tonnes in February, June, and March, respectively. BMI notes that such fluctuations in output levels are indicative of production in the broader European steelmaking arena too.
| Slight Decline On The Horizon |
|Austria - Steel Output &...|
The Austria Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Austria.
BMI's Austria Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Austria.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).