Business Monitor International


Austria Business Forecast Report

Published 26 March 2014

  • 37 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Austria Business Forecast Report

CORE VIEWS

  • Net exports have been a key driver of economic growth over the past decade for Austria. However, declining cost competitiveness and subdued demand from regional trading partners, most notably Germany, will see the contribution to real GDP growth of this component remain subdued in the years ahead.

  • Gazprom's South Stream pipeline will continue to receive support from the Austrian government despite the threat of EU sanctions if the line is constructed. Bulgaria, where South Stream enters mainland Europe, has already been warned about the potential of EU infringements, and we believe a similar threat to Austria would place strains on Vienna's relationship with Brussels.

  • The nationalist Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) performed worse than we had anticipated in the European Parliamentary elections in May, coming third behind the parties of the governing coalition; the centre-left Social Democrats and centre-right People ' s Party. However, we do not believe this marks the start of a decline for the FPO as a political force. Eurosceptic sentiment is still strong in Austria and support for the two main parties likely to be hit by the establishment of a partly taxpayer-funded ' bad bank ' for nationalised lender Hypo Alpe Adria .

MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES

  • On the back of the one-off fiscal impact of the Hypo Alpe Adria 'bad bank' on the government balance sheet we have raised our forecast for Austria's budget deficit to 2.8% of GDP in 2014, from 2.6% previously. However, given the government's overwhelming long-term commitment to eliminating the budget deficit, at the expense of government funded projects and public sector pay, we believe the deficit will narrow in subsequent years, reaching a surplus by 2021.

KEY RISKS TO OUTLK

  • We forecast Austrian consumer price inflation to reach 2.0% y-o-y and 2.3% y-o-y by end 2014 and 2015 respectively, from 1.6% y-o-y in April, on the back of rising housing costs (rents in Austria were up 4.1%...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
South Stream Support Risks EU Backlash
8
TABLE: Political Overvie w
8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
11
SWOT Analysis
11
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
11
Economic Activity
12
Subdued But Stable Growth Ahead
12
Table : Economic Activit y
12
Regional Monetary Policy
14
Assessing The Aftermath Of ECB Policy Action
14
Chapter 3: Business Environment
17
SWOT Analysis
17
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
17
Chapter 4: Key Sectors
19
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
19
TABLE: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data & Forecasts
20
TABLE: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data & Forecasts
21
TABLE: Gover nment Healthcare Expe nditure Tre nds , Hist orical Data & Forecasts
21
TABLE: Private Healthcare Expe nditure Tre nds , Hist orical Data & Forecasts
21
Other Key Sectors
23
table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
23
table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
23
table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
23
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
25
Global Outlook
25
Emerging Market Deceleration
25
Table: Global Assumptions
25
Table : Devel oped States , Real GDP GrowtH, %
26
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOM BERG CON SENSUS REAL GDP GROW TH FORECASTS, %
26
Table : Emergi ng Mar kets , Real GDP Growth , %
27

The Austria Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Austria and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Austria's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Austria's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Austria's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Austria, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Austria Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Austria economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Austria through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Austria Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Austria and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Austria, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Austria over the next 5-years?

BMI's Austria country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Austria Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Austria.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Rankings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ankings, rankings and trends for Austria's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Austria's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Rankings with SWOT Analysis - Business Environment Risk Rankings for Austria, benchmarked against rankings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Austria's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Rankings.

Key Sector Outlook

Which industry sectors in Austria will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI's identifies investment opportunities in Austria's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry with developments over 2008-2012, covering major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2013-2017, using BMI's proprietary industry modeling technique, which incorporates all key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across, and within, each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express