Business Monitor International


Australia Shipping Report

Published 19 August 2014

  • 120 pages
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$1,295.00
Australia Shipping Report

The strong performance by Australian exports lifted Q1 20 14 real GDP growth to 1.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in real and seasonally   adjusted terms, and we have upgraded our 2014 growth forecast to 2.3% on the back of these figures. This should provide welcome news to the Australian shipping industry. However, our growth forecast remains below consensus as an austere budget and easing mining investment intentions should keep domestic demand subdued.

This upgrade, however, in no way changes our downbeat and below-consensus outlook for the Australian economy. We maintain that the economy remains on shaky foundations, as the mining sector continues to be the heavy lifter for the rest of the economy. We believe that a slowdown in the Chinese economy and ongoing reforms efforts should weigh on Australia's export performance beyond H1 2014. At the same time, we believe domestic demand will be moderate at best, as government consumption growth is likely to slow under a more austere federal government and the services sector will struggle to offset the declines from the manufacturing and mining sectors.

In 2014, we maintain our forecasts from last quarter that it will be box throughput growth that will be the outperformer across Australia's largest ports with the port of Melbourne set to lead the way (7.34% year-on-year (y-o-y)). The port of Brisbane will be in second place (6.34%) and Sydney (4.00%). Meanwhile, tonnage handled will see its most impressive annual growth at the port of Sydney (3.64%).

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 port of Melbourne tonnage throughput forecast to grow 3.01%.

  • 2014 port of Melbourne container throughput forecast to rise 7.34%.

  • 2014 port of Sydney tonnage throughput forecast to increase 3.64%.

  • 2014 port of Sydney container throughput forecast to increase 4.00%.

  • 2014 port of Brisbane tonnage throughput forecast to rise 0.80%.

  • 2014 port of Brisbane container throughput forecast to grow 6.34%

  • 2014 total trade growth...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Shipping
10
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Port Of Melbourne Throughput
17
Port Of Sydney Throughput
21
Table: Major Port Data, 2011-2018
26
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
27
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
28
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2012, USDmn
30
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012, USDmn
31
Market Overview
32
Australia Container Shipping Market Overview
32
Industry Trends And Developments
38
Company Profile
44
Australian National Lines
44
Shipping - Global Industry View
48
Container Demand:
48
Container Supply:
55
Container Rates:
61
Global Company Strategy
65
Maersk Line
65
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
78
CMA CGM
83
Evergreen Line
93
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
100
Macroeconomic Forecasts
107
Monetary Easing Can Only Do So Much
108
Weaker AUD To Provide Some Reprieve
109
Table: Australia - Economic Activity
110
Demographic Forecast
111
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
112
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
113
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
114
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
114

The Australia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Australia.

BMI's Australia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Australia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Australia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc