BMI View : We have maintained our 2014 growth forecast for non-hydropower renewable generation this quarter as our assumptions remain relevant, and believe that solar energy will be the main driver of growth in the sector. We also note that the Abbott administration is likely to succeed in abolishing the carbon pricing scheme in July 2014. We have maintained our medium- to long-term forecasts as we had previously incorporated the effects of negative political environment into our outlook for the renewables the sector, and believe it is increasingly unlikely that the country will meet its emissions reductions targets.
We have maintained our 2014 growth forecast for non-hydropower renewable generation at 9.9% this quarter, as our assumptions remain relevant. We note that our 2014 forecast is lower than the five-year historical average of 11.7% as the negative political environment has affected sentiment in the sector, which will affect new capacity additions in 2014.
We have maintained our medium- to long-term forecasts this quarter as we had previously incorporated the effects of negative political environment into our outlook for the sector. This is because the Abbott administration has experienced delays in implementing several changes that would have be negative for the renewable energy sector in 2013; but he should be able to implement them over the medium-term. The Abbott administration is likely to succeed in abolishing the carbon tax in July 2014, while attempts to abolish the CEFC could gain traction in 2014. As such, we are maintaining our non-hydropower renewable generation forecasts, and expect generation to grow an average of 7.5% per annum between 2014 and 2022.
Key trends and regulatory changes in the industry:
The Australia Renewables Report researched at source contains Business Monitor International (BMI)'s assessment of the current renewables market in Australia. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Australia, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Australia, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Australia Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australia renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Australia renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Australia, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Ratings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Ratings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.