BMI View : We are maintaining our 2014 forecasts for non-hydropower renewable generation and capacity in Australia this quarter as our assumptions remain relevant. We believe the Abbott administration is likely to succeed in abolishing the carbon pricing scheme in July 2014. This increases the risk for a policy vacuum to emerge as the Direct Action Policy proposed by the coalition is likely to require several amendments and negotiations. W e also maintained our medium- to long-term forecasts as we had previously incorporated the effects of the negative political environment into our outlook for the renewables sector.
We have maintained our 2014 growth forecast for non-hydropower renewable generation at 9.9% this quarter as our assumptions remain relevant. This growth rate is significantly lower than the five-year historical average growth rate of 11.7%. The lower growth rate for 2014 is due to the elevated level of political risk that is creating uncertainty and bearish sentiment towards the sector.
We have maintained our medium- to long-term forecasts this quarter as we had previously incorporated the effects of a negative political environment into our outlook for the sector. This is because the Abbott administration experienced delays in implementing several changes that would have been negative for the renewable energy sector in 2013. These changes should however, be implemented by the administration over the medium term. As mentioned above, the Abbott administration is likely to succeed in abolishing the carbon tax in July 2014, while attempts to abolish the CEFC could gain traction in 2014. As such, we are maintaining our non-hydropower renewable generation forecasts and expect generation to grow at an average of 7.4% per annum between 2014 and 2023.
Key Trends And Developments
On September 7 2013, the Liberal-National coalition was awarded an overwhelming majority in the House of Representatives in the Australian federal elections. The coalition...
The Australia Renewables Report researched at source contains Business Monitor International (BMI)'s assessment of the current renewables market in Australia. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Australia, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Australia, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Australia Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australia renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Australia renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Australia, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.