Business Monitor International

Australia Power Report

Published 19 July 2013

  • 63 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Free related articles sent monthly
Australia Power Report

BMI View: Coal and gas underpin Australia's energy market and will continue to do so during the course of our 10 - year forecast period. Domestic coal production is strong, offering plentiful natural resources, and the government is also favouring unconventional sources of gas - including controversial shale gas . T his, plus a boost in liquefied natural gas projects, will help boost the contribution that thermal fuels makes to the electricity mix. But Australia also has ambitions in the renewable energy sector, with a goal of 20% of electricity being generated by renewable sources by 2020 - government publications go as far as to state that this figure will rise to 40% by 2035. One of the ways the government hopes to achieve this is through a carbon tax, introduced in July 2012, but the accompanying increase in electricity prices has not been welcomed by the public. The government refuses to buckle under the pressure to reduce its renewable target. And in our view, this underlines the authorities' commitment to the renewable energy sector.

The latest Australia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country's power consumption will rise from an estimated 212.6 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2012 to 261.3TWh by the end of the forecast period in 2022. Thermal generation - comprising coal, gas and oil - is expected to increase by an average 1.6% per annum between 2012 and 2022, while renewable sources of energy will post the strongest gains; with average growth of 8.4% during the period.

A mature market, Australia represents an attractive investment prospect, given its stable regulatory environment and the electricity demands of its energy-intensive industries. But Australia's vast size creates challenges in terms of energy transmission and distribution.

Australia is ranked second, behind the US, in BMI's regional Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings, thanks to its low risk profile and competitive landscape. Australia has a particularly strong risk profile,...

The Australia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Australia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Australia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Australia
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Ratings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%


'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc