Business Monitor International


Australia Power Report

Published 15 July 2014

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Australia Power Report

BMI View: Australia ' s power sector is facing unprecedented changes and challenges. Although demand for electricity remains strong, consumers are increasingly satisfying their need in the form off-grid solar energy rather than on-grid electricity from traditional sources of energy such as coal and gas, severely affecting the profitability of traditional providers and forcing the closure or mothballing of coal and gas-fired power stations. While coal and thermal generation will remain buoyant over the next decade, helped by changes in government policy, plentiful supplies of coal and shale, and the development of LNG stations, the most significant market opportunities will lie in renewable s .

Australia's power sector is facing unprecedented changes and challenges. Demand for electricity remains strong but is considerably less than what was anticipated at the end of the last decade due to de-industrialization and greater energy efficiency. Moreover, consumers are responding to the incentives created by the government's commitment to renewable energy, by generating their own electricity from off-grid solar energy rather than consuming electricity from the grid deriving from traditional sources of energy such as coal and gas.

This process has been accelerated by over-investment in fixed capacity ('poles and wires') which providers are legally entitled to recoup from consumers. Traditional providers are therefore at risk of the so-called death spiral: as more consumers opt out of the grid, those remaining are left to pay an ever-greater share of the fixed costs of repaying the investment, inducing more to leave the system by going off grid, especially as the technology develops for storing solar energy. Over-capacity is severely affecting the profitability of traditional providers and forcing the closure and mothballing of coal and gas-fired power stations.

The government is currently reviewing the Renewable Energy Target in an attempt to alleviate the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Australia Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Australia 2013-2018)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Australia 2018-2023)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Australia Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Australia 2012-2017)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Australia 2018-2023)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Australia 2012-2017)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Australia 2018-2023)
17
Electricity Consumption
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Australia 2012-2017)
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Australia 2018-2023)
21
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Australia 2012-2017)
22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Australia 2018-2023)
22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Australia 2012-2017)
22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Australia 2018-2023)
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: North America And Western Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
31
Australia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Rewards
32
Risks
32
Market Overview
34
Key Policies And Market Structure
34
Sustainable Energy Policies
34
Pricing
35
Australia Power Projects Database
36
Table: Australia - Major Power Projects
36
Competitive Landscape
40
EnergyAustralia
42
AGL
42
ETSA
42
Pacific Hydro
43
TRUenergy
43
Macquarie Generation
43
Verve Energy
44
Delta Electricity
44
CS Energy
44
Snowy Hydro
45
Griffin
45
Company Profile
46
AGL Energy
46
Regional Overview
48
North America And Europe Regional Overview
48
Glossary
57
Table: Glossary Of Terms
57
Methodology
58
Methodology And Sources
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sources
61
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
61
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Australia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Australia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Australia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc