Business Monitor International


Australia Power Report

Published 15 July 2014

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Australia Power Report

BMI View: Australia ' s power sector is facing unprecedented changes and challenges. Although demand for electricity remains strong, consumers are increasingly satisfying their need in the form off-grid solar energy rather than on-grid electricity from traditional sources of energy such as coal and gas, severely affecting the profitability of traditional providers and forcing the closure or mothballing of coal and gas-fired power stations. While coal and thermal generation will remain buoyant over the next decade, helped by changes in government policy, plentiful supplies of coal and shale, and the development of LNG stations, the most significant market opportunities will lie in renewable s .

Australia's power sector is facing unprecedented changes and challenges. Demand for electricity remains strong but is considerably less than what was anticipated at the end of the last decade due to de-industrialization and greater energy efficiency. Moreover, consumers are responding to the incentives created by the government's commitment to renewable energy, by generating their own electricity from off-grid solar energy rather than consuming electricity from the grid deriving from traditional sources of energy such as coal and gas.

This process has been accelerated by over-investment in fixed capacity ('poles and wires') which providers are legally entitled to recoup from consumers. Traditional providers are therefore at risk of the so-called death spiral: as more consumers opt out of the grid, those remaining are left to pay an ever-greater share of the fixed costs of repaying the investment, inducing more to leave the system by going off grid, especially as the technology develops for storing solar energy. Over-capacity is severely affecting the profitability of traditional providers and forcing the closure and mothballing of coal and gas-fired power stations.

The government is currently reviewing the Renewable Energy Target in an attempt to alleviate the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Australia Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Australia 2013-2018)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Australia 2018-2023)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Australia Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Australia 2012-2017)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Australia 2018-2023)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Australia 2012-2017)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Australia 2018-2023)
17
Electricity Consumption
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Australia 2012-2017)
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Australia 2018-2023)
21
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Australia 2012-2017)
22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Australia 2018-2023)
22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Australia 2012-2017)
22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Australia 2018-2023)
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: North America And Western Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
31
Australia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Rewards
32
Risks
32
Market Overview
34
Key Policies And Market Structure
34
Sustainable Energy Policies
34
Pricing
35
Australia Power Projects Database
36
Table: Australia - Major Power Projects
36
Competitive Landscape
40
EnergyAustralia
42
AGL
42
ETSA
42
Pacific Hydro
43
TRUenergy
43
Macquarie Generation
43
Verve Energy
44
Delta Electricity
44
CS Energy
44
Snowy Hydro
45
Griffin
45
Company Profile
46
AGL Energy
46
Regional Overview
48
North America And Europe Regional Overview
48
Glossary
57
Table: Glossary Of Terms
57
Methodology
58
Methodology And Sources
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sources
61
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
61
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Australia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Australia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Australia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Australia
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc