Business Monitor International


Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 30 January 2014

  • 128 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Pharmaceutical firms can expect swifter access to the Australian pharmaceutical market, following the scrapping of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Pricing Authority. Given that the development will not have a significant impact on how drugs are listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, we have maintained our pharmaceutical sales forecast. However, we highlight that any potential reform of the healthcare system is a downside risk to our forecasts.

While the Abbott administration has repeatedly stressed its commitment to healthcare, we note that any reduction in government health expenditure will invariably lead to a decline in overall health expenditure, which, in turn, will also affect our pharmaceutical sales forecast, constituting a downside risk.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: AUD12.75bn (USD12.30bn) in 2013 to AUD13.18bn (USD11.34bn) in 2014; +3.42% in local currency terms and -7.8% in US dollar terms, due to significant exchange rate fluctuations. Forecast was downgraded after taking into account new data from Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme's expenditure.

  • Healthcare: AUD142.24bn (USD137.27bn) in 2013 to AUD149.31bn (USD128.41bn) in 2014; +5.0% in local currency terms and -6.5% in US dollar terms, due to stronger exchange rate fluctuations. Forecast changed slightly from Q214 in local currency terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

Australia's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q314 declined to 65.8 out of the maximum 100 and dropped to third position within the region. In Q314, Japan is ranked as the most attractive market in the Asia Pacific region (scoring 78.1 out of 100), followed by South Korea (68.6) and Australia (65.8). In general, Australia scored above average for all indicators and sub-indicators. However, Australia has among the top five countries the lowest industry rewards score with 22.4 compared to both Taiwan and South Korea with scores of 27.2 and 29.2 respectively. While South Korea managed to overtake...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
16
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
16
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2010-2018
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
22
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
22
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
23
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Australia Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
24
Patented Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Australia Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
26
Generic Drug Market Forecast
27
Table: Cost Of Selected Drugs Post-Price Disclosure, April 2013
29
Table: Generic Drug Sales, 2010-2018
30
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
31
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2010-2018
31
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
32
Table: Australia Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
33
Table: Australia Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (AUDmn)
33
Other Healthcare Data
33
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
34
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Ongoing Misallocation Of Capital Increases Risks
37
Increasing Pressures For Greater Macro-Prudential Rules
38
Table: Australia - Economic Activity
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Asia Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Australia Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Rewards
47
Risks
48
Market Overview
49
Industry Trends And Developments
51
Epidemiology
51
Table: Main Causes Of Death In Australia, 2011
52
Table: Percentage Of Children Immunised (October 1 - December 31 2011)
53
Regulatory Development
54
Regulatory Regime
54
Table: Summary Of TGA Reforms
55
Table: Eu And Ich Guidelines Adopted In The Tga's Biosimilars Guidance Document
58
OTC Switching Climate
58
Regional Regulatory Harmonisation
59
Recent Developments
60
Intellectual Property Issues
61
Trade Agreements
65
Pricing And Reimbursement
66
Table: Historical PBS Co-Payments
67
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments
72
Table: New PBS Formularies
73
Competitive Landscape
74
Pharmaceutical Industry
74
Company Developments
75
Pharmaceutical Distribution
78
Table: Top-20 Pharmaceutical Suppliers By Value From Processed PBS Prescriptions (AUDmn), ending June 2012
81
Company Profile
82
Sigma
82
API
87
Alphapharm
91
Herron
94
CSL
97
Mayne
102
Sanofi
106
GlaxoSmithKline
109
Merck & Co
114
Demographic Forecast
117
Demographic Outlook
117
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
118
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
119
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
120
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
120
Glossary
121
Methodology
123
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
123
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
123
Notes On Methodology
124
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
125
Ratings Overview
126
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
126
Indicator Weightings
127

The Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc