Business Monitor International


Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 15 August 2014

  • 128 pages
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$1,295.00
Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:   Over 300 drug formulations listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) will be subject to price reduction from October 1 2014, following the first simplified price disclosure (SPD) cycle in Australia. As a result, the prices of the affected drugs will be lowered by 20% on average, from those in April 2014. The Australian government continues to push price controls on pharmaceuticals. This is a reflection of the fact that high prices are no longer accepted by patients and national health services. The advent of health economics, coupled with increasing budget deficits, will result in more caps on medicine expenditure, especially on essential drugs. Given the government's aim to contain overall healthcare costs, BMI forecasts that the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector will grow at a low single-digit rate. Nevertheless, pharmaceutical firms can expect swifter access to the Australian pharmaceutical market, following the scrapping of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Pricing Authority which will not have a significant impact on how drugs are listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. However, we highlight that any potential reform of the healthcare system is a downside risk to our forecasts.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: AUD12.95bn (USD12.50bn) in 2013 to AUD13.41bn (USD11.93bn) in 2014; +3.5% in local currency terms and -4.5% in US dollar terms, due to significant exchange rate fluctuations. Forecast was downgraded after taking into account new data from Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme's expenditure.

  • Healthcare: AUD142.16bn (USD137.18bn) in 2013 to AUD148.64bn (USD132.29bn) in 2014; +4.6% in local currency terms and -3.6% in US dollar terms, due to  exchange rate fluctuations. Forecast changed slightly from Q314 in local currency terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

Australia's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q414 remained at 65.8 out of the maximum 100 and kept third position within the region. In Q414, Japan is...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
17
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2010-2018
19
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Key Expenditures And Savings Under The Healthcare Sector (AUDmn)
20
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, 2010-2018
23
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, 2010-2018
24
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, 2010-2018
24
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, 2010-2018
26
Patented Drug Market Forecast
27
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, 2010-2018
28
Generic Drugs Forecast
28
Table: Cost Of Selected Drugs Post-Price Disclosure, April 2013
31
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, 2010-2018
31
Australia
32
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, 2010-2018
32
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
33
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (USDmn), 2012-2018
34
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (local currency), 2012-2018
34
Other Healthcare Data
34
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
35
Macroeconomic Forecasts
36
Pull-Back In Mining Investment Still The Biggest Drag
37
Other Sectors Ill-Placed To Drive Growth As Reform Drive Stalls
38
Fiscal Restraint Negative For Near-Term Growth
39
Table: Economic Activity (Australia 2010-2018)
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Australia Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Rewards
47
Risks
48
Market Overview
49
Australia - Q4 2014
49
Industry Trends And Developments
51
Epidemiology
51
Table: Main Causes Of Death In Australia, 2011
52
Table: Percentage Of Children Immunised (October 1 - December 31 2011)
53
Regulatory Development
54
Regulatory Regime
54
Table: Summary Of TGA Reforms
55
Table: EU And ICH Guidelines Adopted In The Tga's Biosimilars Guidance Document
58
OTC Switching Climate
58
Regional Regulatory Harmonisation
59
Recent Developments
61
Intellectual Property Issues
66
Trade Agreements
70
Pricing And Reimbursement
71
Table: Selected Drugs Undergoing SPD (AUD)
71
Table: Historical PBS Co-Payments
73
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments
78
Table: New PBS Formularies
80
Competitive Landscape
81
Pharmaceutical Industry
81
Company Developments
82
Pharmaceutical Distribution
89
Table: Top-20 Pharmaceutical Suppliers By Value From Processed PBS Prescriptions (AUDmn), ending June 2012
92
Company Profile
94
Sigma
94
API
98
Alphapharm
101
Herron
104
CSL
107
Mayne
111
Sanofi
114
GlaxoSmithKline
117
Merck & Co
122
Demographic Forecast
125
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
126
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
127
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
128
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
128
Glossary
129
Methodology
131
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
131
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
131
Notes On Methodology
132
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
133
Ratings Overview
134
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
134
Indicator Weightings
135

The Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc