Business Monitor International


Australia Oil & Gas Report

Published 12 December 2014

  • 193 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Australia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Australia is set to become a major player in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market by the end of the decade. However, we see waning investment sentiment, which will slow growth momentum. The country will also have to contend with a growing reliance on oil imports as domestic crude oil production experiences weak growth while refining outlook is bleak in face of regional competition.

Headline Forecasts (Australia 2012-2018)
2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 484.2 411.8 409.3 430.0 441.0 439.4 439.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 48.2 49.8 52.6 63.3 81.4 97.4 102.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 36.1 37.0 38.0 38.9 39.9 40.7 41.5
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 659.7 607.7 546.9 492.2 403.6 399.6 399.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,140.0 1,150.7 1,162.9 1,174.8 1,185.6 1,197.5 1,208.1
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI

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The main trends and developments we highlight for Australia's oil and gas sector are:

  • Crude oil and liquids production will continue to trend downwards over our forecast periods as discoveries have not been able to sufficiently replace declining production from mature fields. However, Apache's offshore discovery in the Canning Basin could open up a new oil province that poses upside risk to our forecasts from 2018.

  • Gas production will significantly increase between 2015 and 2018 as developments backing new LNG export projects come online. Thereafter, growth will slow as prohibitively high development costs and the difficulty of carrying gas from gas-rich Western Australia and Northern Territories to eastern Australia restrict investment appetite.

  • A decision to link gas discoveries in the Browse Basin to existing LNG projects - cost...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (Australia 2012-2018)
9
SWOT
10
Oil & Gas SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Australia 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Australia 2018-2023)
11
Table: Chevron's Offshore Gas Discoveries, 2012-Present
13
Table: Recoverable Shale Oil And Gas
18
Upstream Projects
22
Table: Australia Major Upstream Projects
22
Upstream Production - Oil
25
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2012-2017)
25
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2018-2023)
25
Upstream Production - Gas
28
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2012-2017)
28
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2018-2023)
28
Refining
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Australia 2012-2017)
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Australia 2018-2023)
34
Refined Fuels Consumption
37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2012-2017)
37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2018-2023)
37
Gas Consumption
44
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2012-2017)
44
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2018-2023)
44
Trade - Oil
50
Crude Oil Trade
50
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2012-2017)
50
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2018-2023)
50
Refined Oil Trade
54
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2012-2017)
54
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2018-2023)
54
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Australia 2012-2017)
58
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Australia 2018-2023)
58
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
59
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2012-2017)
59
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2018-2023)
59
LNG
61
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
64
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
64
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
64
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
65
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
69
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
70
Downstream Support
71
Australia - Risk/Reward Ratings
74
Australia Upstream Rating - Overview
74
Rewards: Australia Upstream Rating
74
Risks: Australia Upstream Rating
74
Overview: Australia Downstream Rating
75
Market Overview
76
Australia Energy Market Overview
76
Overview/State Role
78
Government Policy
79
Licensing Rounds
82
Table: 2014 Offshore Petroleum Acreage Release
83
Table: 2013 Offshore Petroleum Exploration Acreage Release And Results
85
International Energy Relations
87
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
89
Oil Refineries
89
Table: Downstream Projects
89
LNG Terminals
91
Table: LNG Terminals In Australia
92
Table: Buyers Of Gorgon LNG
96
Table: Long-Term Buyers Of Wheatstone LNG
97
Table: Long-Term Buyers Of Ichthys LNG
101
Gas Pipelines
107
Competitive Landscape
109
Competitive Landscape Summary
109
Table: Key Players - Australia Oil & Gas Sector
111
Table: Key Upstream Players
111
Table: Key Downstream Players
112
Company Profile
113
Woodside Petroleum
113
Santos
119
BHP Billiton
127
Apache Corporation
132
Chevron Australia
137
ConocoPhillips
142
ExxonMobil Australia
147
Royal Dutch Shell
151
BG Group Australia
157
Other Summaries
163
Regional Overview
182
Asia Overview
182
Slower Oil Consumption Growth
182
Significant Oil Importer Still
185
Tightening In The Downstream
187
Gas Demand Growth To Outshine Oil
189
Gas Production And Export Rise
190
Asia To Absorb Gas Export Growth
192
A Hot Market For LNG
193
Strategies To Lower LNG Prices
196
Sino-Russian Gas Deal Promises Softer Prices
197
Global Industry Overview
198
Global Energy Market Overview
198
Appendix
204
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
204
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
204
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
205
Asia - Regional Appendix
207
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
207
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
208
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
208
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
209
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
210
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
211
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
212
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
213
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
213
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
214
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
215
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
216
Australia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
218
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2012-2017)
218
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2018-2023)
218
Australia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
219
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Australia 2012-2017)
219
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Australia 2018-2023)
220
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Australia 2012-2017)
221
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Australia 2018-2023)
222
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Australia 2012-2017)
223
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Australia 2018-2023)
224
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2012-2017)
225
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2018-2023)
225
Glossary
227
Table: Glossary Of Terms
227
Methodology
229
Industry Forecast Methodology
229
Source
231
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
231
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
233
Table: Weighting
234

The Australia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Australia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Australia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Australia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc