Business Monitor International


Australia Oil & Gas Report

Published 19 March 2014

  • 193 pages
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$1,295.00
Australia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : While Australia is set to become a major player in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market by the end of the decade, the spiralling costs of existing LNG developments will most likely slow growth momentum, preventing the country from meeting its full gas production and export potential in the decade to come. Gas production and consumption growth could be further threatened by increasing rules on the extraction of coal bed methane. The country will also have to contend with a growing reliance on oil imports as domestic crude oil production experiences weak growth while refining outlook is bleak in face of regional competition.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Australia's oil and gas sector are:

  • Our forecast for gas production is 132.8bcm by 2018, up from 48.2bcm in 2012. This growth will be brought about by the development of gas fields that will come online alongside the completion of LNG projects. We expect about 75% of this gas to be exported as LNG, largely to Asian customers. By 2023, gas production is forecast to hit 143.6bcm, with LNG exports surpassing 100bcm.

  • However, further expansion of liquefaction capacity - and consequently exports - could be held back. Spiralling developments costs, owing to a shortage of skilled labour and a strong Australian dollar, together with an expected loosening of the global LNG market as more supplies come online, could worsen the economics of LNG projects in Australia.

  • New oil is not likely to flow fast enough to make up for declining production in the country's ageing fields. Total liquids output (excluding refinery gains) fell slightly to 484,200b/d in 2012, according to the US EIA. However, this could see a slight increase on the back of growing natural gas plant liquids output from 2015, as new gas projects supporting LNG developments come online and push up associated liquids production. We forecast total liquids output rising from an estimate of 476,510b/d in 2013...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Australia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Australia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Table: Oil Discoveries Made In The Cooper Basin Since 2012
12
Table: Chevron's Offshore Gas Discoveries, 2012-Present
14
Shale Gas And Liquids
18
Table: Recoverable Shale Oil And Gas
18
Oil Supply & Demand
21
Table: Australia Crude Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
21
Table: Australia Crude Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
22
Refining & Oil Products Trade
24
Table: Australia Refining Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
24
Table: Australia Refining Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
24
Gas Supply & Demand
28
Table: Australia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
28
Table: Australia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
29
LNG
37
Revenues/Import Costs
40
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
43
The Upstream Leaders
43
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
45
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Downstream Support
47
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
51
Australia - Risk/Reward Ratings
52
Australia Upstream Rating - Overview
52
Rewards: Australia Upstream Rating
52
Risks: Australia Upstream Rating
52
Overview: Australia Downstream Rating
53
Market Overview
54
Australia Energy Market Overview
54
Overview/State Role
56
Government Policy
56
Licensing Rounds
60
Table: Partial List Of Winners Of 2011 And 2012 Offshore Petroleum Exploration Acreage Release
60
Table: 2013 Offshore Petroleum Exploration Acreage Release
61
International Energy Relations
63
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
65
Oil Refineries
65
Table: Downstream Projects
65
LNG Terminals
67
Table: LNG Terminals In Australia
67
Table: Buyers Of Gorgon LNG
72
Table: Long-Term Buyers Of Wheatstone LNG
73
Table: Long-Term Buyers Of Ichthys LNG
77
Gas Pipelines
83
Competitive Landscape
85
Competitive Landscape Summary
85
Table: Key Players - Australia Oil & Gas Sector
86
Table: Key Upstream Players
86
Table: Key Downstream Players
87
Company Profile
88
Woodside Petroleum
88
Santos
94
BHP Billiton
102
Apache Corporation
107
Chevron Australia
112
ConocoPhillips
117
ExxonMobil Australia
122
Royal Dutch Shell
126
BG Group Australia
132
Other Summaries
138
Regional Overview
152
Asia Overview
152
Gas Is Hot
152
Locking Eyes On Gas Production
155
Australia's LNG Roadblocks Open Up New Opportunities Elsewhere
156
Asia Fights Against LNG Prices
158
Seeking An Unconventional Rescue
161
Coalbed Methane: Underrated Potential
164
Refining Woes
164
Global Industry Overview
168
Global Energy Market Overview
168
Appendix
176
Asia - Regional Appendix
176
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
176
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
177
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
177
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
178
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
179
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
179
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
180
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
181
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
182
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
182
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
183
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
184
Glossary
185
Table: Glossary Of Terms
185
Methodology
187
Industry Forecast Methodology
187
Source
189
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
189
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
191
Table: Weighting
193

The Australia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Australia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Australia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Australia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc