Business Monitor International


Australia Oil & Gas Report

Published 17 June 2014

  • 193 pages
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$1,295.00
Australia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Australia is set to become a major player in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market by the end of the decade. However, we see waning investment sentiment, which will slow growth momentum. Gas production and consumption growth could be further threatened by increasing rules on the extraction of coal bed methane. The country will also have to contend with a growing reliance on oil imports as domestic crude oil production experiences weak growth while refining outlook is bleak in face of regional competition.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Australia's oil and gas sector are:

  • Our forecast for gas production is 133.7bcm by 2018, up from 49.8bcm in 2013. This growth will be brought about by the development of gas fields that will come online alongside the completion of LNG projects. We expect about 75% of this gas to be exported as LNG, largely to Asian customers. By 2023, gas production is forecast to hit 145.2bcm, with LNG exports surpassing 100bcm.

  • However, further expansion of liquefaction capacity - and consequently exports - could be held back. Spiralling developments costs, owing to a shortage of skilled labour and a strong Australian dollar, together with an expected loosening of the global LNG market as more supplies come online, could worsen the economics of LNG projects in Australia.

  • New oil is not likely to flow fast enough to make up for declining production in the country's ageing fields. Total liquids output (excluding refinery gains) fell 15.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 411,800b/d in 2013. However, this could see a slight increase on the back of growing condensates and natural gas liquids output from 2015, as new gas projects supporting LNG developments come online and push up associated liquids production. We forecast total liquids output to rebound slightly to 439,800b/d in 2018, but slower oil and gas developments from 2018 - resulting from increasingly unfavourable economics, could see production...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Australia Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Australia Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Table: Chevron's Offshore Gas Discoveries, 2012-Present
13
Shale Gas And Liquids
17
Table: Recoverable Shale Oil And Gas
17
Oil Supply & Demand
20
Table: Australia Oil Production and Net Exports, 2012-2017
20
Table: Australia Oil Production and Net Exports, 2018-2023
21
Refining & Oil Products Trade
23
Gas Supply & Demand
27
Table: Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2012-2017
27
Table: Australia Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
29
LNG
37
Revenues/Import Costs
39
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
42
The Upstream Leaders
42
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
45
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Downstream Support
47
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
52
Australia - Risk/Reward Ratings
53
Australia Upstream Rating - Overview
53
Rewards: Australia Upstream Rating
53
Risks: Australia Upstream Rating
53
Overview: Australia Downstream Rating
54
Market Overview
55
Australia Energy Market Overview
55
Overview/State Role
57
Government Policy
58
Licensing Rounds
60
Table: 2014 Offshore Petroleum Acreage Release
61
Table: 2013 Offshore Petroleum Exploration Acreage Release And Results
63
International Energy Relations
65
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
67
Oil Refineries
67
Table: Downstream Projects
67
LNG Terminals
69
Table: LNG Terminals In Australia
70
Table: Buyers Of Gorgon LNG
74
Table: Long-Term Buyers Of Wheatstone LNG
75
Table: Long-Term Buyers Of Ichthys LNG
79
Gas Pipelines
85
Competitive Landscape
87
Competitive Landscape Summary
87
Table: Key Players - Australia Oil & Gas Sector
89
Table: Key Upstream Players
89
Table: Key Downstream Players
90
Company Profile
91
Woodside Petroleum
91
Santos
97
BHP Billiton
104
Apache Corporation
109
Chevron Australia
114
ConocoPhillips
119
ExxonMobil Australia
124
Royal Dutch Shell
128
BG Group Australia
134
Other Summaries
140
Regional Overview
155
Asia Overview
155
The World's Largest Oil Guzzler
155
Tightening In The Downstream
159
Gas Market Potential Set To Outshine Oil
163
A Hot Market For LNG
167
The Centre Of The LNG Price Debate
170
Global Industry Overview
172
Global Energy Market Overview
172
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
174
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
175
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
176
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
178
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
178
Appendix
181
Asia - Regional Appendix
181
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
181
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
182
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
183
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
183
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
184
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
185
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
186
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
187
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
188
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
188
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
189
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
190
Australia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
192
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Australia 2012-2017)
192
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2 (Australia 2018-2023)
193
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Australia 2012-2017)
194
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Australia 2018-2023)
195
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Australia 2012-2017)
196
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Australia 2018-2023)
197
Glossary
199
Table: Glossary Of Terms
199
Methodology
201
Industry Forecast Methodology
201
Source
203
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
203
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
205
Table: Weighting
206

The Australia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Australia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Australia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Australia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc