Business Monitor International


Australia Mining Report

Published 26 September 2014

  • 124 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Australia Mining Report

BMI View: Australia's mining sector is set to suffer the painful spillover effects of a sharp investment slowdown due to the cooling of China's economy over the coming years.

Australia has been among the biggest beneficiaries from the China-led commodities boom over the past decade, attracting huge amounts of investment into the minerals space. Driven by China's voracious appetite for key commodities such as coal and iron ore, the value of Australia's mining industry had increased by more than six-fold from USD24bn in 2003 to USD154bn in 2013. As a result, this has seen the sector's share of GDP rising from 4.5% to 10.2% over the same period. However, the boom years in the mining industry is over. With China's economy on course for a rude slowdown over the coming years, Australia's mining sector is set to suffer the painful spillover effects of a sharp investment slowdown.

Boom is Over
Australia Mining Industry Value & Growth (2011-2018)

We believe Australia will be the biggest loser from the mineral imports shift in China ( see 'Minerals Import Squeeze: Bittersweet Outcomes', July 17 , 2013). The latter commands a prominent role in Australia's exports of key commodities including coal and iron ore. Already, the mining sector is feeling the crunch of plummeting commodity prices as a string of miners scale back their ambitions and slam the brakes on investment. The rising tide of economic nationalism, declining labour productivity and aggressive minimum wage legislation will compound the challenges in the mining industry, amplifying the downshift in Australia's economy going forward ( see 'Tough Times Ahead, What Can Replace The Mining Boom', May 03 , 2013). We expect the value of Australia's mining sector to reach USD187bn by 2018, growing at an annual average rate of 4.0% over our forecast period. This contrasts with an average growth rate of 21.7% per annum over the past decade.

Heavy Chinese Exposure
Australia - Exports of Iron Ore (LHS) & Coal (RHS) By...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Bauxite: Weipa Leads Growth
12
Table: Australia - Select Bauxite Projects
14
Table: Australia - Bauxite Production (2010-2018)
14
Coal: Little Respite From Carbon Tax Repeal
15
Table: Australia: Select Coal Projects
20
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Australia 2010-2018)
20
Copper: Cooling Growth, But Optimism Remains
20
Table: Australia - Largest Copper Projects
22
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Australia 2010-2018)
23
Gold: Golden Years Are Over
24
Table: Australia - Largest Gold Mining Projects
26
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Australia 2010-2018)
26
Iron Ore: Majors Pedal To The Metal
26
Table: Australia Iron Ore Production Forecast
31
Lead: Growth To Remain Supported
32
Table: Lead Production Forecast (Australia 2010-2018)
34
Nickel: Modest Expansion As Price Rally Fades
34
Table: Australia - Select Nickel Projects
36
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Australia 2010-2018)
37
Tin: Output Recovery In Sight
38
Table: Australia - Tin Mining Projects
39
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Australia 2010-2018)
40
Zinc: Century Mine Closure To Hit Growth
40
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (Australia 2010-2018)
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
44
Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Rewards
44
Industry Rewards
44
Country Rewards
44
Risks
45
Industry Risks
45
Country Risks
45
Table: Australia - Mining Industry Value & Minerals Production Forecasts
46
Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Australia Leads, Frontier Markets To Remain Laggards
46
An Improving Regulatory Landscape
47
Largest Quarterly Change In Laos
48
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
49
Regulatory Development
50
Table: Australia - Mineral Taxes
51
Table: Australia - Political Overview
53
Commodities Forecast
55
Commodity Strategy
55
Ferrous Metals:
55
Steel: Prices To Remain Subdued
57
Non-Ferrous Metals:
58
Aluminium: Price Strength To Continue In Q314
58
Copper: Further Decline By Year's End
59
Lead: Constructive Price Outlook
60
Nickel: Moderation To Continue
61
Tin: Upside Ahead
62
Zinc: Consolidation Before Multi-Year Gains
64
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
65
Competitive Landscape
67
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Australia
68
Company Profile
69
BHP Billiton - Q4 2014
69
Latest Financial Results
71
Table: BHP Billiton - Supply Chain Analysis
72
Table: BHP Billiton - Key Financial Data
73
Glencore Xstrata
75
Company Overview
76
Latest Financial Results
77
Company Strategy
77
Table: Glencore Xstrata - Supply Chain Analysis
79
Table: Glencore Xstrata - Key Financial Data
80
MMG Limited - Q4 2014
81
Table: MMG Ltd - Supply Chain Analysis
84
Table: MMG Limited - Key Financial Data
85
Rio Tinto
86
Company Overview
88
Company Strategy
89
Latest Financial Results
90
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
92
Regional Overview
93
Asia Overview
93
Global Industry Overview
99
Capex Cutbacks To Yield Rewards
99
M&A Activity To Pick Up
100
High Grade Opportunities In Iron Ore
101
Shifting Centre Of Growth For Platinum
102
Chinese & Indian Outbound Mineral Investment To Gather Pace
103
Shake-Up For Global Rare Earths Industry
104
Methodology
106
Industry Forecast Methodology
106
Sources
107
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
108
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
109

The Australia Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Australia Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Australia.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Australia's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc