Business Monitor International


Australia Mining Report

Published 26 February 2014

  • 124 pages
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$1,295.00
Australia Mining Report

BMI View: With China's economy on course for a rude slowdown over the coming years, Australia's mining sect or is set to suffer the painful spillover effects of a sharp investment slowdown. Already, the mining sector is feeling the crunch of plummeting commodity prices as a string of miners scale back their ambitions and slam the brakes on investment. W e forecast Australia's mining sector value to reach US$187bn by 2018 , growing at an annual average rate of 4.0 % over our forecast period. This contrasts wit h an average growth rate of 21.7 % per annum over the past decade.

Australia has been among the biggest beneficiaries from the China-led commodities boom over the past decade, attracting huge amounts of investment into the minerals space. Driven by China's voracious appetite for key commodities such as coal and iron ore, the value of Australia's mining industry had increased by more than six-fold from US$24bn in 2003 to US$147bn in 2012. As a result, this has seen the sector's share of GDP rising from 4.5% to 9.6% over the same period. However, we believe the boom years in the mining industry is over. With China's economy on course for a rude slowdown over the coming years, Australia's mining sector is set to suffer the painful spillover effects of a sharp investment slowdown.

Boom Is Over
Australia - Mining Industry Value

We believe Australia will be the biggest loser from the mineral imports shift in China ( see 'Minerals Import Squeeze: Bittersweet Outcomes', July 17 , 2013). The latter commands a prominent role in Australia's exports of key commodities including coal and iron ore. Already, the mining sector is feeling the crunch of plummeting commodity prices as a string of miners scale back their ambitions and slam the brakes on investment. The rising tide of economic nationalism, declining labour productivity and aggressive minimum wage legislation will compound the challenges in the mining industry, amplifying the downshift in Australia's...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Bauxite: Weipa To Drive Growth, But Risks Lurk
12
Table: Australia - Select Bauxite Projects
15
Table: Australia - Bauxite Production Forecast
15
Coal: Golden Years Are Over
15
Coking Coal: Losing Competitiveness
16
Table: Australia - Select Coking Coal Projects
17
Table: Australia - Select Thermal Coal Projects
21
Less Taxing Times Ahead
21
Table: Australia - Coal Production Forecast
22
Copper: Cooling Prospects
22
Table: Australia - Largest Copper Projects
24
Table: Australia - Copper Production Forecast
26
Gold: Global Share To Decline
26
Table: Australia - Largest Gold Mining Projects
29
Table: Australia - Gold Production Forecast
29
Iron Ore: Majors Steeled For Expansion
29
Table: Australia - Select Iron Ore Projects
32
Table: Australia - Iron Ore Production Forecast
35
Lead: Century Mine To Drag On Growth
35
Table: Australia - Key Lead Projects
35
Table: Australia - Lead Production Forecast
37
Nickel: Modest Growth Ahead
37
Table: Australia - Select Nickel Projects
39
Table: Australia - Nickel Production Forecast
40
Tin: Outlook Brightening
40
Table: Australia - Tin Production Forecast
42
Zinc: Growth To Collapse As Century Mine Ends
42
Table: Australia - Select Zinc Projects
44
Table: Australia - Zinc Production Forecast
45
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
46
Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Resource Nationalism On The Retreat
46
Frontier Markets Losing Attraction
46
Table: Asia Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Country Highlights
47
Australia: An Improving Landscape
47
China: Darkening Outlook
48
India: Stumbling Blocks Remain, Despite Reforms
48
Indonesia: Further Policy Moderation Ahead
49
Mongolia: Government Unlikely To Overplay Its Hand
49
Philippines: Taxing Times
50
Japan: Little Potential In Sight
51
South Korea: Few Bright Spots
51
Market Overview
53
Table: Australia - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts
55
Regulatory Development
56
Table: Australia - Mineral Taxes
57
Table: Australia - Key Legislative Changes
58
Table: Asia - Mining Regulatory Scorecard
60
Table: Australia - Political Overview
61
Commodities Forecast
62
Commodity Strategy
62
Steel: Subdued Medium Term Outlook
64
Aluminium: Despite Recent Upswing, Underperformance To Persist
65
Copper: No Time To Celebrate Yet
66
Lead: Outperformance On The Cards
67
Nickel: Sideways Movement In Weeks Ahead
68
Zinc: Positive Momentum To Continue
70
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
71
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
72
Competitive Landscape
73
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Australia
74
Company Profile
75
BHP Billiton
75
Latest Financial Results
78
Table: BHP Billiton - Key Financial Data
81
Glencore Xstrata
82
Latest Financial Results
84
Table: Glencore Xstrata - Key Financial Data
85
MMG Limited
86
Table: MMG Limited - Key Financial Data
91
Rio Tinto
92
Company Overview
94
Company Strategy
95
Latest Financial Results
96
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
97
Regional Overview
98
Asia Overview
98
Global Industry Overview
106
Methodology
118
Industry Forecast Methodology
118
Sources
119
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
120
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
122
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
123

The Australia Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Australia Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Australia.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Australia's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc