The Australian economy grew by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) after seasonal adjustments in Q114, reaccelerating from a pace of 0.8% recorded in Q413. Strong export growth was further accentuated by a contraction in imports, which saw the goods and services balance move into the black in Q114 for the first time in nine quarters. Given that latest data from the Chinese customs authorities for April showing another surge in iron ore imports (which are primarily from Australia) to 24.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), we have upgraded our real GDP growth forecast to 2.3% to account for the stronger export performance.
Australia's real GDP growth is expected to remain firm, averaging 2.7% in the 10-year period from 2014 to 2023. In particular, we believe commodity exports and a renewed interest in skilled immigration will be key drivers in helping the economy return to its trendline growth of around 3.0% from 2017 onwards, following a slowdown over 2013-2016.
While Australia's medium-term economic prospects are poor, as we expect the start of major deleveraging cycle to undermine consumption in the coming years, the longer-term outlook remains bright, with expected real GDP growth heading back towards trendline growth of around 3.0% from 2017. Indeed, our core scenario assumes the economy will be able to recover from a property crash and Chinese slowdown, as the country rebalances towards relying more on domestic manufacturing and exports rather than external debt as a key growth engine. Indeed, we see Australians becoming more cautious spenders following the aftermath of the property bust, as the expected decline in their net worth owing to the fall in home values should compel a shift towards savings and the lowering of consumer debt.
For 2014, we have pencilled in moderate annual growth across the Australian freight mix with air freight set to lead the way in terms of mode with y-o-y gains of a modest 2.60%. Road freight will come in second place (2.50% y-o-y growth) and...
The Australia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Australia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.