Business Monitor International


Australia Freight Transport Report

Published 04 February 2014

  • 105 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Australia Freight Transport Report

High prices and strong external demand for Australian commodity exports in recent years have helped to underpin the country's real GDP growth despite the rising costs domestically, however, this trend has since reversed as the declines in cost in competing countries make Australian products increasingly uncompetitive, which could offer downside risk to the country's freight industry.

Increasing competition externally has meant that reform may be necessary for Australia to remain competitive in the global market. Although high prices and strong external demand for Australian commodity exports over the last two years helped to underpin real GDP growth despite the rising costs domestically, this trend has reversed as the declines in cost in competing countries make Australian products increasingly uncompetitive. Wages and input costs in a number of other Australia's key competitors have been declining since the 2008/09 financial crisis, and the country will need to allow prices of labour and capital to fall in order to remain competitive. We believe this will need to come in the form of reform to these markets in order to reduce the rigidities that prevent the needed price adjustments from taking place.

The Australian freight mix is once more set for an uninspiring 12 months, following on from an unmemorable 2013, as global economic headwinds continue to circle. While the Port of Melbourne and Port of Brisbane are both set for year-on-year (y-o-y) tonnage growth of 3.01% and 3.00% respectively, these figures will be the highest of the country's freight modes. Air freight and road freight are both set for steady annual gains of 2.60% and 2.50% respectively, while rail freight is pencilled in to see tonnage growth come in at less than 2% in 2014.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 2.60%.

  • 2014 rail freight tonnage is forecast to grow by 1.76%.

  • 2014 Port of Melbourne tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 3.01%.

  • 2014...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Road Freight
19
Table: Road Freight, 2011-2018
21
Rail Freight
21
Table: Rail Freight, 2011-2018
22
Air Freight
22
Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018
23
Maritime Freight
23
Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018
24
Trade
24
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
24
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
25
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2005-2012, US$mn
26
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2005-2012, US$mn
27
Market Overview
28
Industry Trends And Developments
36
Air
36
Rail
37
Maritime
39
Road
40
Company Profile
42
Toll Group
42
Pacific National
46
Aurizon (formerly QR National)
49
Qantas Freight
53
Australian National Lines
57
Political Outlook
60
Domestic Politics
60
Similar Spending Policies
61
But Possible Improvement Of Australia's Business Environment
62
Politics In The Senate Could Dilute And Delay Policies
62
Table: Political Overview
63
Long-Term Political Outlook
64
Oil Price Outlook
68
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
68
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
68
Methodology
70
Crude Price Forecasts
71
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
71
Oil Product Price Forecasts
71
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
72
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
73
Weak Demand Persists
74
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
75
Quarterly Prices
79
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
79
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
80
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
82
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
88
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
90
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
90
Risks To Outlook
92
Macroeconomic Forecasts
93
Ongoing Misallocation Of Capital Increases Risks
95
Increasing Pressures For Greater Macro-Prudential Rules
96
Table: Australia - Economic Activity
98
Demographic Forecast
99
Demographic Outlook
99
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
100
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
101
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
102
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
102
Methodology
103
Industry Forecast Methodology
103
Sector-Specific Methodology
104
Sources
105

The Australia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Australia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc