Business Monitor International


Australia Freight Transport Report

Published 06 May 2014

  • 105 pages
 
$1,295.00
Australia Freight Transport Report

The Australian economy grew by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) after seasonal adjustments in Q114, reaccelerating from a pace of 0.8% recorded in Q413. Strong export growth was further accentuated by a contraction in imports, which saw the goods and services balance move into the black in Q114 for the first time in nine quarters. Given that latest data from the Chinese customs authorities for April showing another surge in iron ore imports (which are primarily from Australia) to 24.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), we have upgraded our real GDP growth forecast to 2.3% to account for the stronger export performance.

Australia's real GDP growth is expected to remain firm, averaging 2.7% in the 10-year period from 2014 to 2023. In particular, we believe commodity exports and a renewed interest in skilled immigration will be key drivers in helping the economy return to its trendline growth of around 3.0% from 2017 onwards, following a slowdown over 2013-2016.

While Australia's medium-term economic prospects are poor, as we expect the start of major deleveraging cycle to undermine consumption in the coming years, the longer-term outlook remains bright, with expected real GDP growth heading back towards trendline growth of around 3.0% from 2017. Indeed, our core scenario assumes the economy will be able to recover from a property crash and Chinese slowdown, as the country rebalances towards relying more on domestic manufacturing and exports rather than external debt as a key growth engine. Indeed, we see Australians becoming more cautious spenders following the aftermath of the property bust, as the expected decline in their net worth owing to the fall in home values should compel a shift towards savings and the lowering of consumer debt.

For 2014, we have pencilled in moderate annual growth across the Australian freight mix with air freight set to lead the way in terms of mode with y-o-y gains of a modest 2.60%. Road freight will come in second place (2.50% y-o-y growth) and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Road Freight
19
Table: Road Freight (Australia 2011-2018)
21
Rail Freight
21
Table: Rail Freight (Australia 2011-2018)
22
Air Freight
22
Table: Air Freight (Australia 2011-2018)
23
Maritime Freight
23
Table: Maritime Freight (2011-2018)
24
Trade
24
Table: Trade Overview (Australia 2011-2018)
24
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Australia 2011-2018)
25
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2012, USDmn
26
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012, USDmn
27
Market Overview
28
Industry Trends And Developments
38
Air
38
Rail
39
Maritime
39
Road
41
Company Profile
44
Toll Group
44
Pacific National
48
Aurizon (formerly QR National)
52
Qantas Freight
56
Australian National Lines
60
Political Outlook
63
Domestic Politics
63
Costs And Effectiveness To Hamper Implementation Of Direct Action
64
Need For Cross-Bench Support To Drive Changes And Delays
65
Table: Minority Parties & Independents Within The Australian Senate
65
Potential For Policy Vacuum To Emerge
65
Table: Table: Political Overview
66
Long-Term Political Outlook
67
Oil Price Outlook
72
Bunker fuel
72
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
72
The Storm Clears For Shipping
73
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
75
Long-Term Threats Linger
76
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
77
Risks To Outlook
78
Jet Fuel
79
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
79
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
79
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
81
Risks To Outlook
84
Diesel
85
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
85
New York's One-Off Heat Up
85
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
88
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
92
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
94
Risks To Outlook
98
Macroeconomic Forecasts
99
Monetary Easing Can Only Do So Much
100
Weaker AUD To Provide Some Reprieve
101
Table: Australia - Economic Activity
102
Demographic Forecast
103
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
104
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
105
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
106
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
106
Methodology
107
Industry Forecast Methodology
107
Sector-Specific Methodology
108
Sources
109

The Australia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Australia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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