Business Monitor International


Australia Food & Drink Report

Published 12 May 2014

  • 119 pages
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$1,295.00
Australia Food & Drink Report

With job market weakness finally showing up in Australia's headline unemployment rate, we believe that private consumption growth will show significant weakness in 2014. The soft job market will weigh on wage growth, and together with high levels of household debt - at 94.4% of GDP as of end-2013 - households could begin deleveraging. While we project private consumption growth to slow to 1.3% in 2014, from an estimated 1.5% in 2013, we highlight that there is a possibility that if the global environment weakens significantly, there could be even greater job cuts, which would very likely lead to an overall contraction in private consumption. As a result, we continue to see a shift of consumption habits towards private labels in Australia over the coming years as a growing number of consumers acknowledge private labels as a very compelling alternative to proprietary branded goods.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2014 per capita food consumption = +0.7%; forecast to 2018 = +1.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

  • 2014 soft drinks sales = +2.1%; forecast to 2018 = +2.6% CAGR.

  • 2014 alcoholic drinks sales = +1.9%; forecast to 2018 = +2.4% CAGR.

  • 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +3.4%; forecast to 2018 = +4.1%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Parmalat Strengthens Australian Position: Italian dairy giant Parmalat announced in April that it completed the acquisition of Australian dairy and juice manufacturer Harvey Fresh. The company, owned by French dairy firm Lactalis, indicated that its local subsidiary would pay EUR79mn (USD109mn) for the Western Australia-based company. Harvey Fresh had turnover of around EUR113mn (USD156mn) in its last financial year and manufactures fresh milk, UHT milk, flavoured milk, cream, yoghurt, cheese and fruit juice.

GE Capital Finances Accolade Wines: Australia-based drinks producer Accolade Wines has received a USD300mn cross-border finance facility from US-based GE Capital in a move to recapitalise its...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
17
Food Consumption
17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
18
Confectionery
18
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
19
Canned Food
19
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
20
Drink
20
Alcoholic Drinks
20
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
22
Hot Drinks
22
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
23
Soft Drinks
23
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
24
Mass Grocery Retail
26
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
27
Trade
27
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
28
Macroeconomic Forecast
29
Monetary Easing Can Only Do So Much
30
Weaker AUD To Provide Some Reprieve
31
Table: Australia - Economic Activity
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q314
35
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q314 (scores out of 10)
38
Australia Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Market Overview
40
Food
40
Food Processing
40
Functional Foods
41
Confectionery
41
Canned Food
42
Drink
42
Alcoholic Drinks
42
Hot Drinks
44
Soft Drinks
45
Mass Grocery Retail
45
Industry Trends And Developments
49
Food
49
Drink
56
Mass Grocery Retail
59
Competitive Landscape
66
Table: Key Players In Australia's Food & Drink Sector
66
Table: Key Players In Australia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
67
Company Profile
68
Dairy Farmers
68
Heinz Australia
70
Lion Nathan
73
Foster's Group
76
Coopers Brewery
80
Coca-Cola Amatil
83
Aldi
86
Wesfarmers
88
FoodWorks
90
Woolworths
92
Global Industry Overview
95
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
104
Demographic Forecast
105
Demographic Outlook
105
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
106
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
107
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
108
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
108
Glossary
109
Food & Drink
109
Mass Grocery Retail
109
Methodology
111
Industry Forecast Methodology
111
Sector-Specific Methodology
112
Sources
112
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
113
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
114
Table: Weighting
115

The Australia Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Australia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Australia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Australia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc