Business Monitor International


Australia Food & Drink Report

Published 15 August 2014

  • 119 pages
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$1,295.00
Australia Food & Drink Report

We maintain our outlook for Australia's real GDP growth to slow in 2014 to 2.0% from 2.4% in 2013, as we believe that economy will struggle to find other growth drivers in the face of an ongoing decline of private investment in the mining sector. High levels of household debt, threats of higher taxes, softening job market and income outlook, together with possible declines in house prices lead us to maintain our subdued outlook for private consumption for 2014. We forecast this expenditure component to grow at 1.3% compared to growth rates of 2.0% and 2.5% respectively in 2013 and 2012. As a result, we continue to see a shift of consumption habits towards private labels in Australia over the coming years as a growing number of consumers acknowledge private labels as a very compelling alternative to proprietary branded goods.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2014 per capita food consumption = +0.8%; forecast to 2018 = +1.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

  • 2014 soft drinks sales = +2.1%; forecast to 2018 = +2.6% CAGR.

  • 2014 alcoholic drinks sales = +1.9%; forecast to 2018 = +2.4% CAGR.

  • 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +3.4%; forecast to 2018 = +4.3%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Positive Developments For Beef Exports : Recent developments in Australia's export market bolster our positive outlook for the country's livestock - mainly beef - sector. First, thanks to a recent free trade agreement signed with Japan, Australia will see its competitiveness increase, which is likely to help reverse the decline in beef exports to Japan. Second, the future looks bright for live cattle exports, as China is increasingly eager to open its market to live cattle sales amid soaring demand for beef.

Treasury Wine Estates To 'Reset' In 2015 : Australian wine producer Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) has announced a four-step plan to bring back its gains in FY15 as it writes down AUD260mn (USD244.70mn) for 2014, owing to prices paid for pre-demerger...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
17
Food Consumption
17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2011-2018)
18
Confectionery
19
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2011-2018)
20
Canned Food
21
Drink
21
Alcoholic Drinks
21
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2013-2018)
23
Hot Drinks
24
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2013-2018)
25
Soft Drinks
26
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2013-2018)
27
Mass Grocery Retail
28
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2013-2018)
29
Trade
30
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2013-2018)
31
Macroeconomic Forecast
32
Pull-Back In Mining Investment Still The Biggest Drag
33
Other Sectors Ill-Placed To Drive Growth As Reform Drive Stalls
34
Fiscal Restraint Negative For Near-Term Growth
35
Table: Economic Activity (Australia 2010-2018)
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q414
39
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q414 (scores out of 10)
42
Australia Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Market Overview
44
Food
44
Food Processing
44
Functional Foods
45
Confectionery
45
Canned Food
46
Drink
46
Alcoholic Drinks
46
Hot Drinks
48
Soft Drinks
49
Mass Grocery Retail
49
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (Australia 2005-2014)
52
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Australia 2005-2014)
52
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Australia 2005-2014)
53
Industry Trends And Developments
54
Food
54
Drink
60
Mass Grocery Retail
64
Competitive Landscape
71
Table: Key Players In Australia's Food & Drink Sector
71
Table: Key Players In Australia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
72
Company Profile
73
Dairy Farmers
73
Heinz Australia
75
Lion Nathan
78
Foster's Group
81
Coopers Brewery
84
The Coca Cola Company
87
Table: The Coca-Cola Co Financial Results
94
Aldi
95
Wesfarmers
97
FoodWorks
99
Woolworths
101
Global Industry Overview
104
Table: Select Food Companies - R&D And Advertising Financials
110
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
111
Demographic Forecast
113
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
114
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
115
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
116
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
116
Glossary
117
Food & Drink
117
Mass Grocery Retail
117
Methodology
119
Industry Forecast Methodology
119
Sector-Specific Methodology
120
Sources
120
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
121
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
122
Table: Weighting
123

The Australia Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Australia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Australia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Australia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc