Business Monitor International


Australia Defence & Security Report

Published 16 July 2014

  • 80 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Australia Defence & Security Report

BMI View:   The Australian D efence Force (ADF) is now in a transitional period. After ongoing operational and logistical investment in operations in Afghanistan, the Solomon Islands and Timor-Leste, the ADF is now foc used on re-grouping and optimising its resources to support its strategic goals for the revised 2030 strategy. There have been some recent organizational changes, including a change in the ADF chief in June 2014 . The current expenditure in the overall defence market is projected to increase from 1.6% of GDP in   2014 to 1.7% of GDP showing the government's commitment to assign meaningful amounts of budget to the ADF.

The Defence White Paper published in late 2013 has outlined the importance of the ADF to the overall success of the Australian economy and nation. Based on this the ADF reported that following the 2009 crises the average annual budget for the ADF declined to an average of 1.8% of GDP/year and that they will seek to increase this to 2% of GDP by 2030.

BMI forecasts that there will be an increase in the percentage of GDP allocated to the ADF from 1.6% in 2013 to 1.7% in 2014 and it is forecasted to remain at this level through the end of the projection period in 2018.

BMI forecasts that the total expenditure in defence will increase by 7% in 2014 year and will reach AUD27.17bn. Although the portion of GDP is forecasted to remain constant, the increase in GDP of Australia will help to increase the total value of the expenditure by an average rate of 6.5% annually throughout the rest of the projection period.

The Australian Treasury forecasts an increase in GDP of 2.5% in 2014 and 3% in 2015-16. However, it says rising inflation rates and a weakening Australian dollar will impact the strength of the economy on the global scale.

This weakening AUD FX rate and rising inflation means that the overall expenditure in terms of US dollars means BMI has forecasted a decline of 4.7% in 2014 to a total expenditure of US$23.3bn in 2014....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Australia Security SWOT
9
Australia Defence SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Australia Industry Forecast
17
Defence Expenditure
17
Table: Defence Expenditure (Australia 2011-2018)
19
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Australia 2011-2018)
20
Armed Forces
20
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Australia 2004-2011)
22
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Australia 2011-2018)
22
Defence Trade
22
Table: Defence Trade Balance (Australia 2011-2018)
24
Imports
24
Table: Defence Imports (Australia 2011-2018)
25
Exports
25
Table: Defence Exports (Australia 2011-2018)
26
Macroeconomic Forecasts
27
Economic Analysis
27
Pull-Back In Mining Investment Still The Biggest Drag
28
Other Sectors Ill-Placed To Drive Growth As Reform Drive Stalls
29
Fiscal Restraint Negative For Near-Term Growth
30
Table: Economic Activity (Australia 2010-2018)
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Developed States Security Risk Ratings
32
Table: Developed States Regional Security Ratings
32
Table: Developed States State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
33
Australia Security Risk Ratings
34
Market Overview
35
Australia Defence Market Overview
35
Armed Forces
35
Domestic Industries
36
Imports
38
Australia Security Overview
42
Domestic Threats
43
Regional Threats
43
International Threats
47
Company Profile
49
Austal
49
BAE Systems Australia
51
Boeing Australia
53
Raytheon Australia
55
Thales Australia
57
Regional Overview
59
Europe Security Overview
59
Global Industry Overview
69
Global Political Outlook
69
Methodology
75
Industry Forecast Methodology
75
Sector-Specific Methodology
76
Sources
77
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
77
Table: Indicators And Weighting
78

The Australia Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Australia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Australian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Australian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc