Business Monitor International


Australia Agribusiness Report

Published 01 April 2014

  • 120 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Australia Agribusiness Report

BMI View: The Australian agriculture sector is still recovering from a decade of subdued production growth due to extreme weather and a lack of investment. The industry is expected to remain buoyant in 2014 and 2015 , largely supported by export demand from Asia and elevated grains and oilseeds prices . In the longer term, we see major export growth opportunities in the sugar and livestock sectors. Although Australia will face stiff competition from Asian countries such as Thailand for sugar, and from the US and Brazil for meat, the country will remain a key player in those industries. Apart fro m growing competition from its own region, Australia will have to face high production costs and a vulnerability to extreme weather .

Livestock King Commodity
Australia - BMI Agribusiness Market Value By Commodity (% of total)

Key Forecasts

  • Beef consumption growth to 201 8 : 3.9% to 810,800 tonnes. Demand growth will be largely driven by population growth, as consumption per capita decreases over time due to health consciousness.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 201 8 : 4.0% to 1.3mn tonnes. As a result of the trend towards healthier eating, we believe sugar consumption growth will slow slightly over the forecast period.

  • Wheat production growth to 201 7/18 : 25.3% to 28.1mn tonnes. The high growth rate is due to base effects following a drop in production during 2012/13. Although export opportunities in Asia will incentivise an increase in production, resources constraints will limit growth.

  • BMI universe agribusiness m arket value: US$23.02bn in 2014; up from US$22.99bn in 2013 ; growth expected to average 3.0% annually between 2014 and 2018.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 2.0%; down from 2.4% in 2013. Forecast to average 2.7% from 2014 to 2018.

  • 2014 consumer price index: 2.3 average % change y-o-y; down from 2.3% in 2013. Forecast to average 2.5% from 2014 to 2018.

  • 2014 central bank policy rate (average): 2.00%; down from 2.50% in 2013. Forecast to average...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
13
Grains Outlook
13
Table: Australia Barley Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: Australia Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
15
Table: Australia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
15
Table: Australia's Major Bulk Handlers' Market Share Along The Export Grain Supply Chain
21
Table: Australia Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
24
Table: Australia Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
24
Table: Australia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
25
Sugar Outlook
26
Table: Australia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
27
Table: Australia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
34
Dairy Outlook
35
Table: Australia Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
36
Table: Australia Cheese Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
36
Table: Australia Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
37
Table: Australia Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
37
Table: Australia Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
42
Table: Australia Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
42
Table: Australia Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
43
Table: Australia Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
43
Livestock Outlook
45
Table: Australia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
46
Table: Australia Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
46
Table: Australia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
47
Table: Australia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
54
Table: Australia Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
54
Table: Australia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
54
Commodities Price Analysis
56
Monthly Grains Update
56
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
64
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
65
Monthly Softs Update
66
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
76
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
77
Upstream Analysis
78
Asia Machinery Outlook
78
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
80
Asia GM Outlook
86
Table: Philippines Corn Estimates
90
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012
91
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
92
Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB, reported prices at the end of quarter)
95
Downstream Analysis
99
Food
99
Food Consumption
99
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
100
Confectionery
100
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
101
Canned Food
101
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
102
Drink
102
Alcoholic Drinks
102
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
104
Hot Drinks
104
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
105
Soft Drinks
105
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
106
Mass Grocery Retail
107
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
108
Regional Overview
109
Table: Select Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
111
Competitive Landscape
115
Table: Australia - Major Agribusiness Companies (US$ mn)
115
Demographic Forecast
116
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
117
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
118
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
119
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
119
Methodology
120
Industry Forecast Methodology
120
Sector-Specific Methodology
121

The Australia Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Australia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Australia.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Australia Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc