Business Monitor International


Australia Agribusiness Report

Published 01 April 2014

  • 120 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Australia Agribusiness Report

BMI View: The Australian agriculture sector is still recovering from a decade of subdued production growth due to extreme weather and a lack of investment. The industry is expected to remain buoyant in 2014 and 2015 , largely supported by export demand from Asia and elevated grains and oilseeds prices . In the longer term, we see major export growth opportunities in the sugar and livestock sectors. Although Australia will face stiff competition from Asian countries such as Thailand for sugar, and from the US and Brazil for meat, the country will remain a key player in those industries. Apart fro m growing competition , Australia will have to face high production costs and a vulnerability to extreme weather .

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (% of Total) (2010-2018)

Key Forecasts

  • Beef consumption growth to 2018: 3.9% to 810,800 tonnes. Demand growth will be largely driven by population growth, as consumption per capita is projected to decrease over time due to health consciousness.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 4.0% to 1.3mn tonnes. As a result of the trend towards healthier eating, we believe sugar consumption growth will slow slightly over the forecast period.

  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 24.9% to 28.1mn tonnes. The high growth rate is due to base effects following 2012/13's drop in production. Although exports opportunities in Asia will incentivise farmers to increase production, resources constraints will limit growth.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD 23. 54 bn in 2014; up from USD23.00bn in 2013 ; growth expected to average 2.1% annually between 2014 and 2018.

  • 2014 real GDP growth : 2.3 %; down from 2.4% in 2013. Forecast to average 2.6% from 2014 to 2018.

  • 2014 consumer price index: 2.3 % ( averag e); down from 2.4% in 2013. Forecast to average 2.4% from 2014 to 2018.

  • 2014 central bank policy rate (average): 2.25 %; down from 2.50% in 2013. Forecast to average 2.40% from 2014 to 2018.

...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
13
Grains Outlook
13
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Australia 2013-2018)
14
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Australia 2013-2018)
15
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Australia 2013-2018)
15
Table: Australia's Major Bulk Handlers' Market Share Along The Export Grain Supply Chain
21
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Australia 2008-2013)
24
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Australia 2008-2013)
24
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Australia 2008-2013)
24
Sugar Outlook
26
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Australia 2013-2018)
27
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Australia 2008-2013)
33
Dairy Outlook
35
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Australia 2013-2018)
36
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Australia 2013-2018)
36
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Australia 2013-2018)
36
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Australia 2013-2018)
37
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Australia 2008-2013)
41
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Australia 2008-2013)
42
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Australia 2008-2013)
42
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Australia 2008-2013)
42
Livestock Outlook
44
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Australia 2013-2018)
45
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Australia 2013-2018)
45
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Australia 2013-2018)
46
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Australia 2008-2013)
52
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Australia 2008-2013)
52
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Australia 2008-2013)
53
Commodities Price Analysis
54
Monthly Softs Strategy
54
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
63
Monthly Grains Strategy
64
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
73
Upstream Analysis
74
Asia GM Outlook
74
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012
80
Asia Machinery Outlook
80
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
82
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
86
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
90
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg
93
Downstream Analysis
97
Food
97
Food Consumption
97
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2011-2018)
98
Confectionery
98
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2011-2018)
100
Canned Food
101
Drink
101
Alcoholic Drinks
101
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2013-2018)
103
Hot Drinks
105
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2013-2018)
106
Soft Drinks
106
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2013-2018)
107
Mass Grocery Retail
108
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2013-2018)
109
Regional Overview
110
Table: Hourly Textile Industry Wages By Country (USD)
114
Table: Select Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
116
Competitive Landscape
117
Table: Australia - Major Agribusiness Companies (USDmn)
117
Demographic Forecast
118
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
119
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
120
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
121
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
121
Methodology
122
Industry Forecast Methodology
122
Sector-Specific Methodology
123

The Australia Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Australia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Australia.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Australia Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc