Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Asia / Australia Business Forecast Report
Core Views We maintain our bearish view on the Australian economy despite improved economic growth numbers in Q211. Headline real GDP for the quarter increased by a seasonally adjusted 1.2% quarter... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / Bangladesh Business Forecast Report
Core Views Public unrest owing to heightened tensions between the ruling Awami League (AL) and its main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), will unlikely subside as both sides conti... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / Cambodia Business Forecast Report
Critical Turning Point Looming For Myanmar By-elections planned for April 1 will be a crucial litmus test for the progress of recent reforms in Myanmar. As the de facto successor of the military j... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / China Business Forecast Report
Core Views China's real GDP came in at 8.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 7.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q112, much weaker than consensus expectations. Unlike the situ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / Hong Kong Business Forecast Report
Core Views We have revised our 2012 growth forecast downwards and expect real GDP growth to slow from 5.0% to 2.2%, compared with our previous estimate of 3.0%. This falls within the government's g... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / India Business Forecast Report
Core Views The Indian National Congress (INC) lost heavily in the country's recent state elections. The ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by the INC, now has reduced political clout. Th... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / Indonesia Business Forecast Report
Core Views I ndonesia is likely to continue to outperform its peers in 2012, as we are pencilling in strong 5.8% growth following 6.5% growth in 2011. T he archipelago's consumption-driven economy ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / Japan Business Forecast Report
Core Views The Japanese economy contracted an estimated 0.7% in 2011, and we expect growth to continue to come under threat as volatility in the external environment translates to swings in domesti... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / Malaysia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Latest indicators continue to point towards a slowdown in economic activity over the coming months, supporting our view for Malaysia to miss the consensus forecast of 4.1% real GDP growt... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / New Zealand Business Forecast Report
Core Views With households still in the midst of deleveraging and weakening external conditions, New Zealand's real GDP growth is likely to remain very weak in 2012, and our 1.7% forecast is below ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / Pakistan Business Forecast Report
Core Views Looking ahead at the next fiscal year (FY2012/13, July-June), we expect a recovery in economic growth as domestic demand improves on the back of easing domestic macroeconomic conditions ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / Philippines Business Forecast Report
Core Views Following 2011's disappointing GDP growth of 3.7%, we estimate that the Philippine economy will bounce back only incrementally, with 3.9% growth forecast for 2012. Weak external demand a... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Asia / Singapore Business Forecast Report
Core Views T he labour market remains tight in Singapore, with the unemployment rate dropping to 2.0% in Q311. Still, as Singapore’s economic growth looks set to stall over the coming quarters, we ... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / South Korea Business Forecast Report
Core Views We expect South Korea's real GDP growth to slow to a belowconsensus 1.9% in 2012. China has recently lowered its GDP growth forecast, and our core view of a eurozone recession remains fi... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Asia / Sri Lanka Business Forecast Report
Core Views We expect real GDP growth to moderate in 2011 to 7.5%, from 8.0% in 2010. We caution that while the overall economy appears healthy, overheating risks continue to mount. The growing risk... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Asia / Taiwan Business Forecast Report
Core Views Our forecast for Taiwan’s 2011 and 2012 real GDP growth is 3.6% and 3.4% respectively, which falls below the government’s projection of 4.6% and 4.4% and consensus expectations of 4.9% a... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / Thailand Business Forecast Report
Core Views We believe that economic recovery in Thailand will remain relatively subdued in 2012 as a return to full production for the manufacturing sector is likely to come only in H212. Moreover,... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Asia / Vietnam Business Forecast Report
Core Views Vietnam’s real GDP growth for 2011 and 2012 should continue to moderate in 2012 as a result of economic headwinds in the US , eurozone and China. We see increasing risks that the recent ... Read More