Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Asia / Australia Business Forecast Report
Core Views We maintain our bearish view on the Australian economy despite improved economic growth numbers in Q211. Headline real GDP for the quarter increased by a seasonally adjusted 1.2% quarter... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / Bangladesh Business Forecast Report
Core Views Public unrest owing to heightened tensions between the ruling Awami League (AL) and its main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), will unlikely subside as both sides conti... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / Cambodia Business Forecast Report
Critical Turning Point Looming For Myanmar By-elections planned for April 1 will be a crucial litmus test for the progress of recent reforms in Myanmar. As the de facto successor of the military j... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / China Business Forecast Report
Core Views China's real GDP came in at 8.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 7.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q112, much weaker than consensus expectations. Unlike the situ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / Hong Kong Business Forecast Report
Core Views We have revised our 2012 growth forecast downwards and expect real GDP growth to slow from 5.0% to 2.2%, compared with our previous estimate of 3.0%. This falls within the government's g... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / India Business Forecast Report
Core Views The Indian National Congress (INC) lost heavily in the country's recent state elections. The ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by the INC, now has reduced political clout. Th... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / Indonesia Business Forecast Report
Core Views I ndonesia is likely to continue to outperform its peers in 2012, as we are pencilling in strong 5.8% growth following 6.5% growth in 2011. T he archipelago's consumption-driven economy ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / Japan Business Forecast Report
Core Views The Japanese economy contracted an estimated 0.7% in 2011, and we expect growth to continue to come under threat as volatility in the external environment translates to swings in domesti... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / Malaysia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Latest indicators continue to point towards a slowdown in economic activity over the coming months, supporting our view for Malaysia to miss the consensus forecast of 4.1% real GDP growt... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / New Zealand Business Forecast Report
Core Views With households still in the midst of deleveraging and weakening external conditions, New Zealand's real GDP growth is likely to remain very weak in 2012, and our 1.7% forecast is below ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / Pakistan Business Forecast Report
Core Views Looking ahead at the next fiscal year (FY2012/13, July-June), we expect a recovery in economic growth as domestic demand improves on the back of easing domestic macroeconomic conditions ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / Philippines Business Forecast Report
Core Views Following 2011's disappointing GDP growth of 3.7%, we estimate that the Philippine economy will bounce back only incrementally, with 3.9% growth forecast for 2012. Weak external demand a... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Asia / Singapore Business Forecast Report
Core Views T he labour market remains tight in Singapore, with the unemployment rate dropping to 2.0% in Q311. Still, as Singapore’s economic growth looks set to stall over the coming quarters, we ... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / South Korea Business Forecast Report
Core Views We expect South Korea's real GDP growth to slow to a belowconsensus 1.9% in 2012. China has recently lowered its GDP growth forecast, and our core view of a eurozone recession remains fi... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Asia / Sri Lanka Business Forecast Report
Core Views We expect real GDP growth to moderate in 2011 to 7.5%, from 8.0% in 2010. We caution that while the overall economy appears healthy, overheating risks continue to mount. The growing risk... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Asia / Taiwan Business Forecast Report
Core Views Our forecast for Taiwan’s 2011 and 2012 real GDP growth is 3.6% and 3.4% respectively, which falls below the government’s projection of 4.6% and 4.4% and consensus expectations of 4.9% a... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / Thailand Business Forecast Report
Core Views We believe that economic recovery in Thailand will remain relatively subdued in 2012 as a return to full production for the manufacturing sector is likely to come only in H212. Moreover,... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Asia / Vietnam Business Forecast Report
Core Views Vietnam’s real GDP growth for 2011 and 2012 should continue to moderate in 2012 as a result of economic headwinds in the US , eurozone and China. We see increasing risks that the recent ... Read More
Pub date: 01 Sep 2009 Asia / Afghanistan Special Report
The report outlines the challenges and threats facing Afghanistan over the coming years, and the West's options to bring stability.... Read More
Pub date: 21 Oct 2011 Asia / China Special Report
What is the likelihood of China's economy rapidly going from boom to bust in 2012? What would be the impact on different sectors and asset markets? The special report, 'China 2012: From Mir... Read More
Pub date: 15 Mar 2010 Global Special Report
The report examines the main threats to amicable China-US relations, and outlines three scenarios for the coming decade.... Read More
Pub date: 04 Feb 2010 Global Special Report
EM To Outperform After years of progress on regulatory reform, macroeconomic restructuring and institutional convergence following the painful events of the Asian and Russian c... Read More
Pub date: 28 Aug 2009 Global / Asia Special Report
This report examines the economic and political outlook for the South Pacific states. It is complemented by 10-year forecasts of Australia, New Zealand and China.... Read More
Pub date: 14 Feb 2011 Global Special Report
The Challenge Of Rising Commodity Prices A combination of improving economic growth, loose monetary policy, and supply-side considerations from tight commodity markets is boosting consumer prices ... Read More
Pub date: 09 Aug 2011 Asia / Japan Special Report
This report contains Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent macro and micro-economic analysis on Japan's post-crisis economy. It evaluates the key trends which have occurred since the Marc... Read More
Pub date: 18 Mar 2011 Global Special Report
A Country In Crisis The Worst Disaster Since World War ll Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has described the March 11 devastating earthquake and its aftermath as the country's worst disaster ... Read More
Pub date: 11 Aug 2011 Global Special Report
Economic growth in the US, Japan and the eurozone is faltering, putting the global economy on the verge of another recession. In this special report, Business Monitor International (BMI) assesses the ... Read More
Pub date: 23 Mar 2012 Asia / Myanmar Special Report
BMI View: After a number of false dawns, Myanmar's latest political and economic awakening appears to be the 'real deal' and – as with any 'new' investment story – foreign interest is likely to r... Read More
Pub date: 07 Mar 2012 Global Special Report
BMI View: Poor visibility on global macro prospects suggests that a purely top down approach could be insufficient in unearthing investment opportunities in 2012. In this article, we outline the ... Read More
Pub date: 13 Dec 2011 Global / North America Special Report
BMI examines the outlook for global private consumption over the next 10 years, and picks key emerging market and industry outperformers.... Read More
Pub date: 06 Jul 2011 Global Special Report
Executive Summary Where Next For The World Economy? Risks And Scenarios For The Recovery The risks to the global economy are mounting, following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan in March and... Read More
Pub date: 18 Jan 2011 Global Special Report
The global economic healing process is gaining momentum, and while risks abound as ever, we expect 2011 to herald a broadening and deepening phase of the recovery. Emerging markets are again set to... Read More
Pub date: 10 May 2012 Asia Regional Monitor
China & North Asia Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment... Read More
Pub date: 10 May 2012 Asia Regional Monitor
South Asia Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment... Read More
Pub date: 10 May 2012 Asia Regional Monitor
South East Asia Monitor Vol 1 each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment... Read More
Pub date: 10 May 2012 Asia Regional Monitor
South East Asia Monitor Vol 2 each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment... Read More
Pub date: 11 May 2012 Global Regional Monitor
Emerging Markets Monitor provides weekly analyses, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, foreign exchange, commodities, bonds, equities and funds across global markets, all backed by Business Monito... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Global Regional Monitor
Coverage includes BMI's Country Risk and Financial Markets team's global outlook, with unrivalled coverage of developed states, as well as key regional and country-by-country stories of emerging state... Read More
Pub date: 19 Apr 2012 Asia / Australia Agribusiness Industry Report
BMI View: We maintain our optimistic outlook for production across the different Australian agricultural sectors in 2011/12. We expect the strongest output growth in wheat and livestock, and believe... Read More
Pub date: 04 Apr 2012 Asia / Australia Autos Industry Report
Australian new vehicle sales for 2011 stood at a total of 1,008,437 units, down by 2.6% year on year (y-oy), according to data released by Australia's Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI),... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / Australia Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The recent amendment to the Banking Act in October 2011 has allowed Australian banks to raise funding through the issuance of covered bonds. While covered bonds could help lower funding co... Read More
Pub date: 13 Apr 2012 Asia / Australia Consumer Electronics Industry Report
Australia's consumer electronics devices market, defined as including computing devices, mobile handsets and AV products, is projected to be worth around US$16.6bn in 2012. Vendors will continue to ... Read More
Pub date: 22 Mar 2012 Asia / Australia Defence & Security Industry Report
In a move that has the potential to change the strategic picture in the Asia Pacific region, Australia and the US agreed in November 2011 to begin basing US Marines in the north Australian port of Da... Read More
Pub date: 23 Feb 2012 Asia / Australia Food & Drink Industry Report
A strong Australian dollar, falling consumer spending and the impact of the Queensland floods all took their toll on the country’s performance in 2011. BMI is holding on to a cautious outlook for the... Read More
Pub date: 27 Feb 2012 Asia / Australia Freight Transport Industry Report
We are bearish in our forecasts for the Australian economy in 2012 and further ahead, based on our fears of a slowdown in China. Australia's fortunes are inextricably linked to China's, as are many o... Read More
Pub date: 12 Apr 2012 Asia / Australia Information Technology Industry Report
BMI View: Australian IT spending is expected to reach US$21.6bn in 2012, up 4%, with BMI expecting a deceleration. The market should continue to offer opportunities, despite business concerns about t... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Asia / Australia Infrastructure Industry Report
BMI View: We continue to expect anaemic growth for the construction sector in 2012, with real growth forecast to reach 1.5%. This is mainly due to the poor outlook for the residential building sector... Read More
Pub date: 28 Nov 2011 Asia / Australia Insurance Industry Report
Key Insights And Key Risks A casual glance at Australia’s insurance sector suggests that, relative to others in the Asia-Pacific (specifically Northeast Asia), it is fairly large and very mature. Ma... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Asia / Australia Metals Industry Report
Latest data suggest that the rebound seen in H111 weakened significantly in the second half of the year. Indeed, slower real GDP growth in several key economies, combined with higher levels of market... Read More
Pub date: 24 Feb 2012 Asia / Australia Mining Industry Report
Australia is a leading player in many segments of the global mining industry. Owing to its substantial deposits, the country possesses an array of minerals including iron ore, nickel, bauxite, copper... Read More
Pub date: 20 Feb 2012 Asia / Australia Oil & Gas Industry Report
BMI View: Gas, in particular coal bed methane (CBM), may be the future for Australia’s energy export industry. Conventional gas and vast volumes of newly-discovered CBM, or ‘coal seam gas’ (CSG) as i... Read More
Pub date: 28 Nov 2011 Asia / Australia Petrochemicals Industry Report
The Australian petrochemicals industry is being sidelined as investment pours into gas liquefaction, which is the focus of downstream developments over the next five years, according to BMI’s latest ... Read More
Pub date: 04 May 2012 Asia / Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry Report
BMI View: Given the country's increasingly ageing population and the consequential rise in noncommunicable diseases, Australia is a highly attractive place for multinational companies despite lower ... Read More
Pub date: 08 Jul 2011 Asia / Australia Power Industry Report
The new Australia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country’s power consumption will rise from 230TWh in 2010 to 267TWh by the end of the forecast period, representing average annual growth of... Read More
Pub date: 24 Feb 2012 Asia / Australia Real Estate Industry Report
National Australia Bank’s commercial property survey for Q3 2011 described the short- term outlook for retail property as subdued and forecast to remain negative through much of 2012, although the in... Read More
Pub date: 17 Feb 2012 Asia / Australia Shipping Industry Report
Heading into 2012, the Port of Melbourne is set to retain its position ahead of the domestic competition in terms of container throughput, followed by second placed Sydney. In terms of tonnage throug... Read More
Pub date: 13 Apr 2012 Asia / Australia Telecommunications Industry Report
Following the release of 2011 end-of-year results for the three major operators, Singapore Telecommunications' Optus, Telstra and Vodafone Hutchison Australia (VHA), we are able to provide a more co... Read More
Pub date: 05 Apr 2012 Asia / Australia Tourism Industry Report
Through to 2008, tourist arrivals to Australia had been steadily growing since 2004. In 2003, arrival numbers fell by 1% due to concern over the SARS pandemic. In 2004, 4.77mn tourists visited Austra... Read More
Pub date: 11 May 2012 Asia / Bangladesh Agribusiness Industry Report
BMI View: Fighting inflation remains a core priority of the government in the near term and the government will increase imports of key grains such as wheat, rice and sugar to increase supply and kee... Read More
Pub date: 19 Apr 2012 Asia / Bangladesh Commercial Banking Industry Report
Politicking To Take Its Toll On Stressed Banking Sector BMI View: Despite the reservations of the central bank and the IMF, the government's persistent (likely politically-motivated) willingness to ... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Asia / Bangladesh Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry Report
BMI View: Although the growth of Bangladesh's pharmaceutical market is expected to remain in double digits over the forecast period, some of the gains will be negated by high levels of inflation. Add... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Asia / Bangladesh Telecommunications Industry Report
In this quarter's update, we have updated the Bangladesh telecoms report with latest figures from the Bangladesh Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (BTRC) as well as Bangladeshi telecoms opera... Read More
Pub date: 14 May 2012 Asia / India Retail Industry Report
The Q112 BMI India Retail Report forecasts total retail sales will grow from INR20.26trn (US$422.09bn) in 2011 to INR31.78trn (US$825.46bn) by 2015. Strong underlying economic growth, population exp... Read More
Pub date: 27 Apr 2012 Asia / Laos Telecommunications Industry Report
BMI's Q212 report on the telecommunications market of Cambodia and Laos provides a comprehensive overview of the latest developments to occur within the mobile, fixed-line telephony and internet sect... Read More
Pub date: 25 Apr 2012 Asia / Cambodia Infrastructure Industry Report
BMI View: Our robust outlook for Cambodia's construction sector in 2011 appears well-founded, with the number of approved projects in the sector still growing at a rapid pace. Going into 2012, we hav... Read More
Pub date: 12 Apr 2012 Asia / Cambodia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry Report
BMI View: The Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) is becoming increasingly attractive to foreign investors given the association's plans to boost economic development through the ASEAN Eco... Read More
Pub date: 13 Apr 2012 Asia / Cambodia Power Industry Report
BMI View: The major players in Asian power supply are clamouring to invest in Cambodia, with the result that huge capacity expansion can be expected from around 2015, as hydro, gas and coal-based sc... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Asia / China Agribusiness Industry Report
BMI View: China's agriculture industry will continue to be strongly affected by government policies which aim to ensure national food security. However, the government's recent acknowledgment of the ... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Asia / China Autos Industry Report
As expected, growth in China's total vehicle sales was much lower in 2011 than the 32% year-on-year (y-o-y) recorded in 2010. Sales rose just 2.6% to 18.5mn units, slightly surpassing BMI's expectat... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Asia / China Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Despite total new yuan loans reaching a higher-than-expected CNY738bn in January 2012, we continue to see total loan growth moderating as banks register rising numbers of non-performing lo... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Asia / China Consumer Electronics Industry Report
China's consumer electronics devices market, defined to include computing devices, mobile handsets and video, audio and gaming products, is forecast to be worth about US$197.0bn in 2012, and this is ... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Asia / China Defence & Security Industry Report
China faced two potentially serious internal challenges to its stability in early 2012. A village uprising in Wukan, Guangdong, turned into an unplanned democracy experiment, as the central governmen... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Asia / China Food & Drink Industry Report
Given the high savings rate of the Chinese consumer, private consumption will be an outperformer to the manufacturing, investment and external sectors of China in 2012. A high savings rate means that... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / China Freight Transport Industry Report
BMI expects continued growth in China's freight transport sector as it continues to benefit from the country's demand for minerals and raw materials, such as coking coal and iron ore. However, while ... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Asia / China Information Technology Industry Report
BMI View: China's IT spending growth is forecast at around 14% in 2012, which is a slight slowdown, compared with 2011. Despite an expected moderation in IT investment and retail spending over the ne... Read More
Pub date: 20 Feb 2012 Asia / China Infrastructure Industry Report
BMI View: Our view on the unwinding of spending on railways is playing out, with the latest figures emerging from China suggesting an 80% reduction in high speed rail spending y-o-y. The fatal accide... Read More
Pub date: 22 Mar 2012 Asia / China Insurance Industry Report
Key Insights And Key Risks The premiums written by China's life insurers in 2011 were about 10% lower than they had been in the preceding year. At a time of lingering inflation and volatile financia... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Asia / China Metals Industry Report
From 2012 to 2016 the metals industry in China will be facing a period of steady declines in demand and supply growth. On the demand side, we are expecting a sharp slowdown in Chinese fixed asset in... Read More
Pub date: 11 May 2012 Asia / China Mining Industry Report
As 2012 ushers in the second year of China's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), we expect the changes and reforms enacted in 2011 to continue. Smaller and more inefficient mines will be closed, mid-siz... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Asia / China Oil & Gas Industry Report
BMI Industry View: While China is increasingly dependent on imported oil and gas due to rapid growth in energy demand, there is upside risk in terms of its domestic resources, particularly in view of... Read More
Pub date: 22 Mar 2012 Asia / China Petrochemicals Industry Report
Expansionary fiscal policy and product price stabilisation should lead to an improved performance in the Chinese petrochemicals industry in 2012, according to BMI's latest China Petrochemicals Report... Read More
Pub date: 22 Mar 2012 Asia / China Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry Report
BMI View: 2012 is a very important year for the country as the government look to carry on their achievements following the healthcare reform in 2009. We highlight that the expansion of the National ... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Asia / China Power Industry Report
BMI View : New data released by the China Electricity Council (CEC) corroborate BMI 's view that China's electricity consumption growth will slow in 2012 as a result of a China hard landing. As the ... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Asia / China Real Estate Industry Report
Continued efforts to cool the residential sector will affect all real estate activity in coming months, with stalled prices now hoped to begin their decrease. Cooling residential demand and governmen... Read More
Pub date: 25 Apr 2012 Asia / China Retail Industry Report
The Q312 BMI China Retail Report forecasts that the country's total retail sales will increase by 29% in local currency terms by the end of the forecast period, growing from an expected CNY20.24trn ... Read More
Pub date: 09 Mar 2012 Asia / China Shipping Industry Report
BMI View Following positive throughput figures across China's port sector for the first half of 2011, we forecast another year of growth for Chinese ports, with the Port of Shanghai set to retain it... Read More
Pub date: 05 Mar 2012 Asia / China Telecommunications Industry Report
Latest subscriber data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Chinese operators - China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom - indicated that the end-2011 forecasts for the m... Read More
Pub date: 09 Mar 2012 Asia / China Tourism Industry Report
Official Forecasts Point To Gloomy 2012 Although full-year tourist arrival data has not been released, urban data reporting suggests the sector performed well in 2011, if not yet back to pre-2008 le... Read More
Pub date: 12 Apr 2012 Asia / Hong Kong Autos Industry Report
Hong Kong's autos market has experienced three years of sharp fluctuations in annual growth through 2011. While unit sales, unit imports and market value all contracted significantly in 2009, the ove... Read More
Pub date: 15 Mar 2012 Asia / Hong Kong Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: Despite reporting strong profits in the first three quarters of 2011 and being marginally exposed to Europe, our outlook on Hong Kong's banking sector is less than optimistic. We expect ban... Read More
Pub date: 12 Apr 2012 Asia / Hong Kong Consumer Electronics Industry Report
Hong Kong's consumer electronics devices market, defined as the addressable market for computing devices, mobile handsets and AV products, is projected to be worth about US$4.4bn in 2012. This is ex... Read More
Pub date: 12 Dec 2011 Asia / Hong Kong Food & Drink Industry Report
BMI View: A reversal in Hong Kong’s booming property market will inevitably weigh on consumer purchasing power and curtail spending on higher value consumer goods. Global headwinds are also likely t... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / Hong Kong Freight Transport Industry Report
While Hong Kong's port and airport cater for its domestic trade needs, the country's freight transport sector has developed a global role, with both the air freight and container shipping sectors fun... Read More
Pub date: 12 Apr 2012 Asia / Hong Kong Information Technology Industry Report
BMI View: Hong Kong IT spending is expected to reach US$5.5bn in 2012, up 5%, with BMI's forecast unchanged although a potential cooling of the mainland Chinese economy as a result of monetary tight... Read More
Pub date: 27 Apr 2012 Asia / Hong Kong Infrastructure Industry Report
BMI View: Construction activity in Hong Kong has moderately improved in the second half of 2011, with an increase in land supply boosting activity in the residential and non-residential building con... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Asia / Hong Kong Insurance Industry Report
Key Insights And Key Risks. As of early 2012, Hong Kong's insurance sector continues to stand out - relative to others that are surveyed by BMI - for its strength and dynamism. In the first nine mon... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Asia / Hong Kong Oil & Gas Industry Report
BMI View: With no domestic energy resources, Hong Kong has the straightforward, if demanding, challenge of meeting growing oil and gas demand through imports alone. Having mainland China on its door... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Asia / Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry Report
BMI View: Despite an increasingly ageing population (consequently increasing burden of noncommunicable diseases) Hong Kong will only be moderately attractive to investors given its small market size... Read More
Pub date: 11 May 2012 Asia / Hong Kong Power Industry Report
BMI View: Thermal energy continues to account for the almost all of Hong Kong's domestic energy production; while there have been some tentative steps towards generating energy from renewable source... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Asia / Hong Kong Real Estate Industry Report
According to our most recent round of in-country interviews, which were conducted in December 2011, rents in Hong Kong could see a subdued 2012 in all commercial sub-sectors with an overall decline i... Read More