Poland's economy gathered momentum through the second quarter, expanding by 3.5% y-o-y (4.4% q-o-q sa annualised) as compared to a 3.0% y-o-y (2.8% q-o-q sa annualised) Q110 showing. The headline print came in above the 3.2% y-o-y Bloomberg consensus estimate, and throws weight behind our above-cons...Read More

With Poland's economy showing increasing signs of improvement, we believe that the banking sector will continue to see profitability recover. Indeed, we expect both loan losses to moderate and credit growth to pick up, while conservative capital positioning should ensure sector stability into the lo...Read More

With Poland's economy showing ongoing expansion, we expect the National Bank of Poland will finally convert its hawkish rhetoric into an initial 25 basis points hike in the final quarter of 2010. That said, we see the policy normalisation cycle dragging out over an extended period as global economic...Read More

We see scope for yield convergence along Poland's government bond curve in the months ahead, with near-term yields likely to adopt an upward bias as the central bank moves towards its first policy normalising rate hike. At the same time, we expect long-end bonds to remain relatively bid, owing to at...Read More

Although Poland's economy slowed to a 0.5% q-o-q seasonally adjusted expansion in Q110, from the 1.1% q-o-q real growth seen in Q409, we are encouraged by the fact that economic activity continues to be buoyed by private consumption - which we see remaining firm as labour market conditions improve....Read More

The Polish zloty remains one of our favourite European currencies, with recent weakness merely providing an attractive entry point. Indeed, we reaffirm our view that Poland is set to be a regional outperformer through 2010 and beyond, with economic growth catalysed by a compelling domestic demand s...Read More

In line with our expectations, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the reference rate on hold at 3.50% at the May 24-25 monetary policy committee meeting. This coalesces with our view that the NBP will be unwilling to hike rates during H110 given that the economic recovery remains fragile and inf...Read More

Another month of strong growth in industrial output in Poland has confirmed that the recovery in the sector is firmly underway, as well as indicating that broader economic conditions continue to improve. According to the latest data, industrial production increased 9.9% y-o-y in April, which though ...Read More

Underlining BMI's positive view on the Polish consumer story, SABMiller subsidiary Kompania Piwowarska has reported resilient headline figures for the year to March 2010. Although sales volume dipped 2% year-on-year (y-o-y), revenues climbed 1.6% y-o-y to PLN4.8bn (EUR1.16bn). With real private cons...Read More

The Polish banking sector continues to adjust to a new phase of slower economic growth and tighter credit conditions, with asset accumulation and credit expansion continuing to slow during the first quarter. While we believe that Polish banks are well positioned to support the broader economic recov...Read More